809
FXUS64 KEWX 131828
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1228 PM CST SAT DEC 13 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURE ROLLER COASTER CONTINUES THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK.
- LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCE FOR RAIN FROM SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING.
- FREEZE LIKELY EARLY MONDAY MORNING
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1151 AM CST SAT DEC 13 2025
FOR THE REST OF TODAY EXPECT TEMPS TO BE TEMPERED A BIT BECAUSE OF
THE LATE DISSIPATION OF THE FOG THIS MORNING. AREAS THAT HAD LITTLE
TO NO FOG SHOULD BE A BIT WARMER. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 70S WITH A FEW
LOCATIONS POSSIBLY HITTING 80. LOWS FOR TONIGHT SHOULD BE MUCH
COLDER WITH MANY SEEING THE LOW TO UPPER 40S NORTH OF I-35 WITH
LOW 50S SOUTH AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS OUR AREA FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH. WE COULD SEE RAIN CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN AND HAVE
ADDED POPS AS NBM WAS JUST TO LOW, HOWEVER NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING
HEAVY, RAINFALL WISE. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD END OVER MOST AREAS
EXCEPT THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
CAA CONTINUES INTO SUNDAY WITH A MAJOR COOLDOWN WITH MANY
LOCATIONS REMAINING IN THE 40S AND LOW 50S NORTH OF THE I-10
CORRIDOR. DEPENDING ON HOW COOL WE STAY WE COULD LIKELY BE LOOKING
AT FREEZING CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. WHILE
MANY LOCATIONS EXPECTED TO DROP TO FREEZING HAVE BEEN DROPPED FROM
THE FREEZE PROGRAM THERE ARE STILL A FEW MAINLY IN THE FAR
COASTAL PLAINS THAT MAY NEED FREEZE WARNINGS (FAYETTE, LAVACA, AND
DEWITT COUNTIES. BOTTOM LINE IS THIS: IF WE STAY COOLER DURING THE
DAY SUNDAY, WE WILL LIKELY NEED FREEZE WARNINGS FOR THESE
COUNTIES AND POSSIBLY FURTHER INLAND INCLUDING BEXAR AS WELL.
HOWEVER, IF WE STAY WARMER THE FREEZING THREAT GREATLY DIMINISHES.
WE WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE HOW SUNDAY PLAYS OUT. FOR NOW AM
HOLDING OFF ON ISSUING ANY FREEZE WARNINGS.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1151 AM CST SAT DEC 13 2025
FOR THE LONG TERM WE REMAIN IN A NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW UNTIL MIDDAY MONDAY WHEN WE START TO SEE THE RETURN OF
SOUTHERLY FLOW BEFORE AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE
AREA BY TUESDAY. HIGHS FOR MONDAY WILL BE SOMEWHAT WARMER THAN
SUNDAY WITH MANY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO GO ON SLOW WARMING TREND.. A
COMBINATION OF WESTERLY/ZONAL FLOW ALOFT, SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW AT THE SURFACE TO 700MB, AND A LACK OF RECENT RAINFALL,
SUGGESTS TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD COULD BE 15-20 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. MEANING WE SHOULD HAVE NO TROUBLE WARMING INTO THE
70S TO LOWER 80S STARTING WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. ADDITIONALLY, THIS PERIOD ALSO LOOKS TO CONTINUE
TO REMAIN DRY AS MOST OF THE SYSTEMS REMAIN WELL TO OUR NORTH.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1151 AM CST SAT DEC 13 2025
LOW CLOUDS ARE BREAKING ACROSS SOME PORTIONS OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR
INCLUDING THE AUSTIN AREA AND HILL COUNTRY. HOWEVER, THE LOW LEVEL
CLOUD DECK REMAINS THICKER ACROSS SAN ANTONIO AREA TERMINALS AND DEL
RIO. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW CLOUDS LIFTING AND DISSIPATING
WITH TIME AND FORECAST TRENDS FAVORED THIS TO CONTINUE. THEREFORE,
MVFR CIGS ARE LIKELY TO BECOME VFR SHORTLY AND STAYS FOR THE REST OF
THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. INCREASED MOISTURE RETURNS
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT
PUSHING TO THE SOUTH AND INTO OUR AREA OVERNIGHT. MVFR CONDITIONS
COME BACK DURING THAT PERIOD WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH AS THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE MOVES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT, BREEZY NORTH WINDS OF 10 TO 18 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH GUSTS
UP TO 26 KNOTS. STAYS BREEZY AND GUSTY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD THROUGH THE ENTIRE DAY ON SUNDAY. VFR CONDITIONS
RETURN MID TO LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS ALL LOCAL AIRPORTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 44 50 33 57 / 20 0 0 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 44 51 31 57 / 20 0 0 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 47 53 34 57 / 20 0 0 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 39 46 31 56 / 30 0 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 52 57 46 60 / 10 30 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 42 48 30 57 / 20 0 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 50 57 37 59 / 20 10 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 46 52 32 57 / 20 0 0 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 49 54 31 55 / 20 0 0 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 49 54 37 58 / 20 10 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 52 56 38 58 / 20 10 0 0
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...CJM
LONG TERM....CJM
AVIATION...17
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page