107
FXUS64 KEWX 042356
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
556 PM CST SUN JAN 4 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- UNSEASONABLY WARM THROUGH THIS WEEK WITH NEW RECORD HIGHS POSSIBLE
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, TURNING COOLER NEXT WEEKEND.
- SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS PORTIONS OF OUR AREA MID WEEK.
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TUESDAY, POSSIBLY NEAR CRITICAL
FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1205 PM CST SUN JAN 4 2026
SOUTHERLY LOWER LEVEL FLOW IS RETURNING TO OUR AREA WITH AN INCREASE
IN MOISTURE EXPECTED. THIS WILL LEAD TO LOW CLOUDS AND FOG, SOME
LOCALLY DENSE, OVERNIGHT INTO MORNING HOURS. LATER SHIFTS WILL
MONITOR AND MAY HAVE TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF
OUR AREA. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW PATCHES OF LIGHT MIST. THE THERMAL
RIDGE MAINTAINS ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. A MODERATE SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY YIELD BREEZY AND GUSTY WINDS MONDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE HILL COUNTRY AND THE I-35 CORRIDOR.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1205 PM CST SUN JAN 4 2026
A PACIFIC FRONT PUSHES INTO OUR AREA ON TUESDAY, THEN RETREATS BACK
TO THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY WHILE AN ENHANCED LOWER LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE
REMAINS. THIS CAUSES TEMPERATURES TO SOAR INTO THE 80S ACROSS MOST
AREAS EACH AFTERNOON. RECORD HIGHS FOR TUESDAY THE 6TH AND WEDNESDAY
THE 7TH MAY BE BROKEN OR TIED. SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR THE
CURRENT RECORDS.
A PACIFIC FRONT MOVES ACROSS OUR AREA IN THE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME, THEN A FRONT WITH SOME CANADIAN
ORIGIN MOVES ACROSS OUR AREA LATER ON FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH A WEAKENING
LOWER LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE ON THURSDAY AND COLD ADVECTION ON FRIDAY
BEGIN A COOLING TREND, TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE. THEN, AS
COLD ADVECTION KICKS IN, NEAR TO PERHAPS BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED NEXT WEEKEND. THE PASSAGE OF A MID LEVEL IMPULSE TO OUR
NORTH AND THE FRONTS MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS. CURRENTLY, THE BEST
CHANCES, THOUGH 25% OR LESS, CONTINUE ACROSS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU,
HILL COUNTRY, AND CENTRAL TEXAS PORTIONS OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. HOWEVER, THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR
CHANCES TO BE ADDED ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON
INTO NIGHT.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 537 PM CST SUN JAN 4 2026
VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE START OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD WITH CONDITIONS DETERIORATING RAPIDLY OVERNIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING TO IFR/LIFR/VLIFR AS LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE SURGES
OVER OUR AREA ON S-SE FLOW. CLOUDS AND FOG WILL LIKELY MIX IN
HELPING TO REALLY REDUCE VISIBILITIES FOR MOST OF THE DAY
TOMORROW FOR ALL TAF SITES. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY FOR UNDER 1/2
MILE VISIBILITIES DUE TO FOG AND HAVE KEPT TEMPOS IN FOR THIS
TIME PERIOD MONDAY MORNING. FOR KDRT DON'T HAVE VISIBILITIES
QUITE AS LOW DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE ON HOW FAR WEST THE FOG
FORMS. EXPECT A GRADUAL RETURN TO MVFR/VFR CIGS FOR ALL TAF SITES
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS SKIES CLEAR AND VISIBILITIES IMPROVE.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1205 PM CST SUN JAN 4 2026
IN WAKE OF A PACIFIC FRONT, MINIMUM HUMIDITIES FALL INTO THE UPPER
TEENS TO 20S ACROSS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AND HILL COUNTRY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, WIND SPEEDS OF LESS THAN 10 MPH ARE EXPECTED.
THUS, ONLY LOCALLY ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE. IN
THE WAKE OF A STRONGER FRONT, MINIMUM HUMIDITIES IN THE TEENS AND
20S ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS EACH DAY FRIDAY
THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY. NORTHERLY WINDS MAY BECOME BREEZY AND GUSTY
WITH A MORE WIDESPREAD THREAT OF ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 1205 PM CST SUN JAN 4 2026
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
TUE/6TH WED/7TH
AUS 84/1989 80/1978
ATT 84/1989* 80/2008*
SAT 84/1989 86/1923
DRT 82/2023* 83/1923
*ALSO EARLIER YEARS
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 51 73 60 84 / 0 0 0 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 49 75 60 83 / 0 0 0 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 49 75 58 82 / 0 0 0 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 49 73 56 80 / 0 0 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 52 73 55 82 / 0 0 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 49 73 59 83 / 0 0 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 49 73 55 83 / 0 0 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 49 76 59 84 / 0 0 0 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 49 77 62 83 / 0 0 0 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 52 73 61 83 / 0 0 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 53 76 60 83 / 0 0 0 0
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...CJM
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