502
FXUS64 KEWX 050612
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1212 AM CST MON JAN 5 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- PATCHY TO AREAS OF DENSE FOG HAVE MEDIUM TO HIGH PROBABILITY TO
FORM OVERNIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AND AGAIN TUESDAY MORNING.
- WELL ABOVE HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE IN STORE FOR TODAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.
- THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE FOR RAIN WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO
THURSDAY MORNING.
- COLD FRONT MOVES FRIDAY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND BRINGS FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS INTO THE WEEKEND
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1210 AM CST MON JAN 5 2026
WITH THE RETURN OF SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE LOCAL AREA, FOG AND LOW
CLOUD DEVELOPMENT IS IN STORE FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD INTO MONDAY
MORNING. SOME MODELS BRING VISIBILITY DOWN TO A MILE OR LESS AND
OTHERS DON'T. THEREFORE, ONCE WE START GETTING OBSERVATIONS AND LOW
VISIBILITY VALUES THAT MEET DENSE FOG ADVISORY CRITERIA, THEN WE
ISSUE IT. OTHERWISE, FOG AND LOW CLOUDS LIFT LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON FOR PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM
THE LOWER TO MID 70S MOST LOCATIONS TO UPPER 70S ACROSS THE COASTAL
PLAINS. MAY BE BREEZY ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY MID AFTERNOON,
OTHERWISE, WIND SPEEDS OF 10 MPH OR LESS ARE FORECAST FOR THE LOCAL
AREA.
THE NIGHT TIME COMES AND THE PATTERN REPEATS WITH FOG AND LOW CLOUDS
DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT AND BREAKING BY MIDDAY. IN THE MEANTIME, A
SURFACE TROUGH/DRY-LINE PUSHES FROM THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU
INTO THE I-35 CORRIDOR TO BRING TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER AND MID
80S. IT IS GOING TO BE VERY WARM FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR AND SOME
DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS COULD BE BROKEN. CLOUDS RETURNS AT
NIGHT AND LOWS GET DOWN TO THE 50S AREAWIDE.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1210 AM CST MON JAN 5 2026
ANOTHER WARM DAY IS FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER
80S FOR MOST AREAS. LATER IN THE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, A
PIECE OF ENERGY FROM AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS
NORTHERN MEXICO AND ARIZONA MAY BRING ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO PORTIONS
OF THE RIO GRANDE AND SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU TO PRODUCE SOME
SHOWERS THERE. OTHERWISE, MODELS ARE TRENDING DRIER FOR MOST OF
THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY.
A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS DURING
THE DAY ON FRIDAY TO COOL TEMPERATURES DOWN AND PROVIDES A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS MAINLY FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 77.
FRIDAY'S HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 60S
ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY TO UPPER 70S ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS.
OVERNIGHT LOWS TO DROP TO THE MID TO UPPER 30S FOR THE HILL COUNTRY
TO MID 40S ELSEWHERE.
NEXT WEEKEND LOOKS DRY AND COOLER WITH TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO
CLIMATE NORMALS WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER TO UPPER
30S WITH A NEW SURGE OF A COOLER AIRMASS PUSHING INTO THE LOCAL
AREA.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1210 AM CST MON JAN 5 2026
THE FORECAST THIS EVENING REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN DESPITE SOME
STRONG SIGNALS FOR DENSE FOG FORMATION. THE SREF PROBABILITIES FOR
VISIBILITY <1 MILE THIS MORNING ARE BETWEEN 40-60% ALONG THE I-35
CORRIDOR BETWEEN 09Z AND 15Z, BUT EVEN HIGHER PROBS OVER 70-90% OVER
THE SOUTHERN HILL COUNTRY AND EDWARDS PLATEAU THIS EVENING.
ADDITIONALLY, THE LATEST HREF GUIDANCE INDICATES A 30-50%
PROBABILITY FOR VISBYS < 0.5 MILES ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR WITHIN
THIS SAME TIME FRAME, WITH ANY DENSE FOG LIFTING NORTH AND WESTWARD
AND SETTLING OVER THE EDWARDS PLATEAU BY EARLY TO MID MORNING
MONDAY. THERE IS STRONG AGREEMENT AMONG LAMP, HREF, SREF, AND NBM
GUIDANCE THAT CEILINGS OF <500 FEET ARE LIKELY AT ALL SITES AFTER
09Z. WILL REFLECT THIS INFORMATION IN THE TAF, BUT OPT TO KEEP
VISBYS AROUND 1 MILE OR GREATER DUE TO SIMILAR SCENARIOS RESULTING
IN LITTLE TO NO DENSE FOG JUST A COUPLE WEEKS AGO. WIND SPEEDS
APPEAR TO BE ELEVATED AS WELL, SO SOME MIXING IS LIKELY THAT SOME OF
THE MODELS MAY NOT BE ACCOUNTING FOR.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 1205 PM CST SUN JAN 4 2026
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
TUE/6TH WED/7TH
AUS 84/1989 80/1978
ATT 84/1989* 80/2008*
SAT 84/1989 86/1923
DRT 82/2023* 83/1923
*ALSO EARLIER YEARS
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 74 61 84 57 / 0 0 0 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 76 60 84 56 / 0 0 0 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 76 59 84 56 / 0 0 0 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 73 56 81 53 / 0 0 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 74 55 83 54 / 0 0 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 74 59 84 55 / 0 0 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 74 56 84 55 / 0 0 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 76 59 85 56 / 0 0 0 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 78 62 83 59 / 0 0 0 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 75 61 83 59 / 0 0 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 76 61 83 60 / 0 0 0 0
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...MMM
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