003
FXUS64 KEWX 051920
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
120 PM CST MON JAN 5 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER, CLIMATE
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
MAINLY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
- LATE NIGHT AND MORNING FOG THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH SOME
PATCHY, DENSE FOG POSSIBLE IN THE COASTAL PLAINS.
- A COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY BRINGS COOLER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS LATE THIS WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1259 PM CST MON JAN 5 2026
SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL KEEP MOISTURE INTACT
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS NEAR
THE SURFACE WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER ROUND OF LATE NIGHT AND MORNING
FOG TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY, MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-35
CORRIDOR. A FEW SPOTS NEAR THE COASTAL PLAINS COULD SEE SOME
POCKETS OF DENSE FOG TOMORROW MORNING. THE FOG WILL LIKELY NOT
HAVE A CHANCE TO DEVELOP OVER THE HILL COUNTRY AND SOUTHERN
EDWARDS PLATEAU AS WINDS SHIFT TO A MORE SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY
DIRECTION IN ADVANCE OF A DRYLINE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. THE
DRYLINE WILL GRADUALLY ADVANCE TOWARD THE I-35 CORRIDOR TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. WE WILL SEE SOME DRY AIR MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
EDWARDS PLATEAU AND HILL COUNTRY DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS
TOMORROW AND THIS WILL LEAD TO SOME ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS. WE SHOULD SEE LESS IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AND THIS WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO PEAK IN THE 80S FOR MOST
AREAS. AT THIS TIME, IT LOOKS LIKE RECORD HIGHS WILL BE MET OR
EXCEEDED AT OUR FOUR MAIN CLIMATE SITES. SOUTHERLY FLOW LOOKS TO
RESUME ACROSS ALL AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE DRYLINE MIGRATES
NORTHWARD. LOOK FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG TO DEVELOP FROM THE
COASTAL PLAINS INTO PORTIONS OF THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS SOUTH OF
EAGLE PASS.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1259 PM CST MON JAN 5 2026
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN PLACE ON WEDNESDAY AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW PICKS UP IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVING
ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO. MORE RECORD HIGHS LOOK TO BE TIED OR
BROKEN AT AUSTIN AND POSSIBLY DEL RIO. THE RECORD HIGH FOR SAN
ANTONIO APPEARS SAFE AT THIS TIME. AN INCREASE IN SOME WEAK
SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING COULD BRING A
LOW CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
EDWARDS PLATEAU AND HILL COUNTRY. CHANCES AND ANY RAINFALL AMOUNTS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VERY LOW. THE ABOVE MENTIONED UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM MOVES INTO WEST TEXAS AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE ON THURSDAY
AND THEY DRYLINE WILL ALSO MAKE A RETURN TO OUR REGION. IT LOOKS
LIKE THE DRYLINE WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU AND
WESTERN HILL COUNTRY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND THIS WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN INCREASED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THE MENTIONED
AREAS AS WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE STRONGER BEHIND THE DRYLINE. IT
WILL BE WARM AGAIN ON THURSDAY AND WHILE RECORD HIGHS FOR DEL RIO,
SAN ANTONIO, AND AUSTIN MABRY APPEAR SAFE, THE HIGH OF 81 AT
AUSTIN BERGSTROM WILL LIKELY BE TIED OR BROKEN. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS ON FRIDAY, BRINGING MUCH DRIER AIR
AND BREEZY CONDITIONS TO ALL AREAS. WHILE THERE ARE SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES NOTED AMONG THE MODELS, PREFER THE FASTER TIMING OF
THE GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS AT THIS TIME. SHOULD THIS TIMING HOLD,
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS ON FRIDAY.
COOLER TEMPERATURES SPREAD INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS. UNFORTUNATELY, NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED WITH THE LATE WEEK COLD FRONT.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1259 PM CST MON JAN 5 2026
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS ARE SLOWING EVAPORATING AND ALL TERMINALS
SHOULD BE VFR WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. VFR WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE EVENING. IFR CEILINGS WILL REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT IN THE
AUSTIN AND SAN ANTONIO AREAS. DRT SHOULD REMAIN VFR. A DRYLINE
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE DAY TUESDAY BRINGING AN
EARLIER END TO LOW CEILINGS AT AUS. THE BOUNDARY WILL GET TO SAN
ANTONIO BY AROUND NOON. BEHIND THE BOUNDARY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
THE WEST.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1259 PM CST MON JAN 5 2026
WESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE DRYLINE WILL BRING LOW HUMIDITY LEVELS
TO THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU AND HILL COUNTRY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH WIND SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 10 MPH, LOW
HUMIDITY LEVELS AROUND 20 PERCENT WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREAS. THE DRYLINE
RETREATS NORTHWARD WEDNESDAY, BUT RETURNS WITH ANOTHER SURGE OF
DRY AIR AND WESTERLY WINDS OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS, SOUTHERN
EDWARDS PLATEAU AND HILL COUNTRY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT
BRINGS INCREASING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TO ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 1259 PM CST MON JAN 5 2026
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
TUE/6TH WED/7TH THU/8TH
AUS 84/1989 80/1978 81/2009
ATT 84/1989* 80/2008* 88/1923
SAT 84/1989 86/1923 84/1923
DRT 82/2023* 83/1923 83/1969
*ALSO EARLIER YEARS
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 60 85 56 82 / 0 0 0 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 60 84 53 82 / 0 0 0 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 59 83 55 80 / 0 0 0 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 56 81 52 80 / 0 0 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 54 83 53 82 / 0 0 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 59 83 52 81 / 0 0 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 55 83 54 82 / 0 0 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 59 84 54 82 / 0 0 0 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 63 83 58 82 / 0 0 0 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 61 84 58 80 / 0 0 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 61 85 58 82 / 0 0 0 0
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...PLATT
LONG TERM....PLATT
AVIATION...05
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