860
FXUS64 KEWX 061113 AAA
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
513 AM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG IS LIKELY AGAIN THIS MORNING AND WEDNESDAY
MORNING
- WELL ABOVE NORMAL TO NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE IN STORE
FOR TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
- SEVERAL FRONTAL BOUNDARIES ARE EXPECTED TO ELEVATE FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS FOR MOST OF THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1214 AM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
MORE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING, AND ONCE
AGAIN CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON HOW MUCH OF THIS FOG COULD BECOME DENSE,
AS SHORT-TERM DROUGHT HAS LED TO WARM AND DRY SOILS AND LIMITED
EVAPOTRANSPIRATION INPUTS. THE NEGATIVE REINFORCEMENT OF DROUGHT
CONTINUES TO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO SOAR, AND THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL
REFLECT THIS. A DRY-LINE ENTERS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TODAY, STALLING
CLOSE TO THE I-35 IN THE LATE AFTERNOON BEFORE RETREATING BACK NORTH
TONIGHT. MUCH OF THE AREA CAN EXPECT THE TEMPERATURE TO JUMP UP INTO
THE UPPER 70S AND 80S WHICH COULD TIE OR BREAK THE DAILY RECORDS FOR
TODAY.
TONIGHT SHOULD SEE ANOTHER OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME FOG WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE ON HOW DENSE OR WHAT AREAS WOULD BE MOSTLY LIKELY TO
SEE DENSE FOG. THE SURFACE WINDS SHOULD TREND UPWARD TONIGHT AS
SURFACE PRESSURES RESPOND TO AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
WEDNESDAY WILL SEE HIGHER HUMIDITIES ALL DAY AS SURFACE WINDS POINT
TOWARD THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THAT DOESN'T STOP THE
TEMPERATURES FROM SOARING AGAIN, AS THERE REMAINS A DRY LOW LAYER OF
AIR THAT THAT BECOMES THE MIXED LAYER ONCE THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
BURN OFF.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1214 AM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
MORE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING, AND ONCE
AGAIN CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON HOW MUCH OF THIS FOG COULD BECOME DENSE,
AS SHORT-TERM DROUGHT HAS LED TO WARM AND DRY SOILS AND LIMITED
EVAPOTRANSPIRATION INPUTS. THE NEGATIVE REINFORCEMENT OF DROUGHT
CONTINUES TO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO SOAR, AND THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL
REFLECT THIS. A DRY-LINE ENTERS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TODAY, STALLING
CLOSE TO THE I-35 IN THE LATE AFTERNOON BEFORE RETREATING BACK NORTH
TONIGHT. MUCH OF THE AREA CAN EXPECT THE TEMPERATURE TO JUMP UP INTO
THE UPPER 70S AND 80S WHICH COULD TIE OR BREAK THE DAILY RECORDS FOR
TODAY.
TONIGHT SHOULD SEE ANOTHER OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME FOG WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE ON HOW DENSE OR WHAT AREAS WOULD BE MOSTLY LIKELY TO
SEE DENSE FOG. THE SURFACE WINDS SHOULD TREND UPWARD TONIGHT AS
SURFACE PRESSURES RESPOND TO AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
WEDNESDAY WILL SEE HIGHER HUMIDITIES ALL DAY AS SURFACE WINDS POINT
TOWARD THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THAT DOESN'T STOP THE
TEMPERATURES FROM SOARING AGAIN, AS THERE REMAINS A DRY LOW LAYER OF
AIR THAT THAT BECOMES THE MIXED LAYER ONCE THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
BURN OFF.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1214 AM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND
ARIZONA MAY PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS EARLY THURSDAY, BUT THE MODEL
CONSENSUS AND TRENDS ARE GOING DRIER AND DRIER WHILE THE SYSTEM
CURVES LEFT AND NORTHWARD. OUR COUNTIES WEST OF I-35 WILL CATCH SOME
OF THE WAKE SUBSIDENCE AND EASTWARD SURGE OF THE DRYLINE WHICH WILL
ONCE AGAIN FAVOR WELL ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES.
THE SHIFTING WINDS AND DRIER AIR SETS OFF WHAT LOOKS TO BE A DAILY
REPEAT OF FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FROM MULTIPLE FRONTS. THE DRY-LINE
FEATURE LOOKS TO HANG UP OVER I-35 AS ADDITIONAL SURFACE RIDGING
SUSPENDS THE BOUNDARY OVER I-35 LONG ENOUGH TO LATE A LATE DAY POLAR
FRONT TO CATCH UP. THERE COULD BE A FEW STORMS FIRING OFF THIS DRY-
LINE, BUT WE'LL KEEP WITH THE MORE PESSIMISTIC NBM APPROACH GIVEN
THE UNDER-PERFORMANCE OF THE RECENT RAIN OPPORTUNITIES.
THE POLAR FRONT THAT ARRIVES SHOULD COME IN TOO LATE TO CREATE
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS, BUT A NEAR CRITICAL SCENARIO COULD
SET UP OVER THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AND HILL COUNTRY TOWARD THE END OF
THE DAY. THE CONSENSUS OF MODELS IS TRENDING SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH
THE POLAR UPPER LOW, SO THE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS MAY PIVOT MORE
INTO SATURDAY OR EVEN SUNDAY, AS THERE ARE MULTIPLE SCENARIOS
SUGGESTED IN TERMS OF FRONTAL TIMING, AND A POSSIBLE SECONDARY DRY
FRONT THAT IS SUGGESTED BY THE 00Z DETERMINISTIC GFS. THE GEFS AND
EPS-AIFS SHOW A MORE COHESIVE SIGNAL WHICH WOULD SUGGEST CONTINUED
DRY AIR BUT PERHAPS A PAUSE ON THE HIGHER WINDS. DETERMINISTIC RUN-
TO-RUN CONTINUITY IS POOR IN THIS PERIOD, SO WILL PLAY THE NBM IN
LOW CONFIDENCE.
A LOW LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM MEXICO EARLY NEXT WEEK, SO
THERE COULD BE A GOOD MID-WEEK CHANCE OF RAIN TAKING SHAPE.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 506 AM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED IN AND AROUND SSF, BUT SO FAR, WITH LOW
STRATUS MOVING IN, THAT HAS ALLOWED VISIBILITIES TO COME BACK UP
OVER 1 MILE AND IT SHOULD REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE MORNING. AUS AND SAT WILL SEE IFR CEILINGS, WITH A SHOT AT
LIFT AT SAT. RAPID IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED AFTER 15-16Z AND VFR
CEILINGS RETURN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 84 57 81 64 / 0 0 0 10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 84 55 81 64 / 0 0 0 10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 84 57 80 63 / 0 0 0 10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 81 53 78 61 / 0 0 0 10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 83 55 82 59 / 0 0 0 10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 84 53 80 64 / 0 0 0 10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 84 55 81 59 / 0 0 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 85 56 81 63 / 0 0 0 10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 83 59 82 66 / 0 0 0 10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 84 60 80 64 / 0 0 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 84 60 82 64 / 0 0 0 0
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR TXZ218>225-
228.
SHORT TERM...18
LONG TERM....18
AVIATION...MMM
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