771
FXUS64 KEWX 071751
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1151 AM CST WED JAN 7 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, CLIMATE
KEY MESSAGES
- WELL ABOVE NORMAL TO NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES CONTINUE
THROUGH TOMORROW.
- MULTIPLE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES ARE EXPECTED TO ELEVATE FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
- COOLER AND MUCH MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARRIVING SATURDAY
WITH CHANCES FOR PATCHY FREEZES EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1150 AM CST WED JAN 7 2026
MORE HUMID GULF AIR IS SPREADING ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW STRENGTHENS BENEATH THE SUBTROPICAL JET OVER OUR
AREA. THIS IS CAUSING DEW POINTS TO REBOUND TO HIGH VALUES FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR (50S AND 60S COMPARED TO TYPICAL VALUES IN THE 30S
AND 40S). ALONG WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S, THAT SHOULD
MAKE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FEEL EVEN MORE UNLIKE JANUARY. AN
UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE SWINGING OUT OF THE
SOUTHWESTERN US THROUGH THE TEXAS PANHANDLE TONIGHT. THE LOW-LEVEL
JET OUT AHEAD OF IT WILL KEEP THE ABNORMALLY MUGGY FLOW OF MOISTURE
GOING AND IMPART BREEZY CONDITIONS TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS IN THE HILL COUNTRY WHERE THE CHANCE OF GUSTS LOCALLY
EXCEEDING 35 MPH IS ABOUT 60 PERCENT. ELSEWHERE, BREEZES ARE MORE
LIKELY TO GUST IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE. THOSE WINDS REDUCE CHANCES
FOR FOG THURSDAY MORNING, BUT PATCHY FOG MAY STILL PERCOLATE INTO
THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT STAY MILD AND ARE
FORECAST TO BE NEAR RECORD HIGH MINIMUMS.
THE PASSING TROUGH BRINGS ALONG WITH IT A MOSTLY DRY AND WEAK COLD
FRONT, SWEEPING THE WEST TEXAS DRY LINE ALONG WITH IT. SYNOPTIC-
SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT IS LARGELY WELL TO OUR NORTH, SO RAIN
CHANCES WITH THE FRONT ARE LESS THAN 10 PERCENT AREAWIDE. PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS COULD PERSIST AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS IT
STALLS OUT OVER OUR AREA, WHICH COULD HELP TO LOWER TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY. HOWEVER, WESTERLY DOWNSLOPING FLOW AND DRIER CONDITIONS
BEHIND THE FRONT COULD LOCALLY INCREASE TEMPERATURES ALONG THE
BALCONES ESCARPMENT IF THE FRONT REACHES THE I-35 CORRIDOR, KEEPING
TEMPERATURES HIGH. FORECAST HIGHS THURSDAY ARE IN THE UPPER 70S FOR
THE HILL COUNTRY TO LOW 80S ELSEWHERE, REMAINING UNSEASONABLY WARM.
FARTHER WEST, CLEARER SKIES BEHIND THE FRONT AND DRIER CONDITIONS
MAY GENERATE LOCALLY ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER THE
SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU, THOUGH THE LATEST MODELS TEND TO KEEP THE
MID-LEVEL POST-FRONTAL JET TO THE NORTH, REDUCING THE WIND
POTENTIAL. ON THURSDAY NIGHT, THE FRONT/DRY LINE REMAINS STALLED
OVER THE AREA. CALMER WINDS AND CONTINUED MOISTURE POOLING AHEAD OF
THE BOUNDARY MAY RESULT IN ANOTHER FOGGY PERIOD HEADING INTO FRIDAY
MORNING, MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF I-35 (CHANCES ARE 40 TO 60 PERCENT
ON THE LATEST MODEL BLEND).
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1150 AM CST WED JAN 7 2026
A SECOND AND STRONGER TROUGH TAKES A SIMILAR SWING THROUGH TEXAS ON
FRIDAY. WITH THE LEAD TROUGH PROVIDING SOME INITIAL DESTABILIZATION
ALOFT, THE SECOND TROUGH COULD ACTIVATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THE PREEXISTING FRONT BETWEEN FRIDAY
MORNING AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON, WITH RAIN COVERAGE AROUND 30 TO 50
PERCENT FAVORING THE AUSTIN AREA AND COASTAL PLAINS. THE MOST LIKELY
RAIN AMOUNTS ARE IN THE RANGE OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO ABOUT A QUARTER
INCH. THE SPC DOES HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE
STORMS JUST NORTHEAST OF THOSE AREAS, SO IT'LL BE WORTH MONITORING
FOR A STRONGER THUNDERSTORM MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF US-77.
AN INITIAL DRY PACIFIC FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
CWA FRIDAY MORNING. CLOUDS KEEP FRIDAY'S HIGHS DOWN SLIGHTLY, BUT
THE BIGGER CHANGE ARRIVES FRIDAY NIGHT WHEN A TRAILING POLAR FRONT
SWEEPS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. LOWS SATURDAY MORNING ARE FORECAST TO
DROP INTO THE 30S WEST OF THE BALCONES ESCARPMENT WITH 40S TO THE
EAST. WINDS COULD APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA (NEAR 25 MPH), SO WIND
CHILLS ARE EXPECTED TO ALSO BE IN THE 20S FOR THE COLDEST SPOTS
SATURDAY MORNING. WE'LL AGAIN BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS WITH THE DRY WINDINESS SATURDAY AFTERNOON REGIONWIDE.
RESIDUAL UPPER-LEVEL CIRRUS AND AN INTERVENING LOW-LATITUDE UPPER
DISTURBANCE HOLDING DOWN THE BROADER TROUGHINESS OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES COOL AND SEASONABLE THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S BETWEEN SATURDAY AND
TUESDAY. FORECAST LOWS GENERALLY STAY IN THE 30S TO LOW 40S. THERE
WILL PROBABLY BE A FEW FREEZES FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS,
BUT THE MOST FAVORED AREAS SHOULD SHIFT AS THE COOL AIRMASS SLOSHES
BY AND THE INITIALLY ADVECTION-DRIVEN COLD ON SUNDAY SWITCHES OVER
TO A MORE RADIATIONAL COOLING-BASED EVENT MONDAY AND TUESDAY
MORNINGS. THERE ARE MEDIUM CHANCES (50 TO 60 PERCENT) FOR FREEZES IN
THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU AND HILL COUNTRY SUNDAY MORNING,
FOLLOWED BY BROADER OPPORTUNITIES FOR PATCHY FREEZES ACROSS SOUTH-
CENTRAL TEXAS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. MOST OF THE FREEZING TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE JUST BELOW THE FREEZING MARK, THOUGH THE COLDEST SPOTS IN
THE HILL COUNTRY MAY DIP INTO HARD FREEZE TERRITORY (28F OR BELOW)
ON ONE OR TWO MORNINGS AS INDICATED IN THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE.
THE WEAK DISTURBANCE IN NORTHERN MEXICO DRIFTS OVER OUR AREA EARLY
NEXT WEEK AND FAVORS SOME LIGHT RAINS FOR OUR AREA EITHER MONDAY OR
TUESDAY, THOUGH BETTER RAIN CHANCES SHOULD BE FARTHER SOUTH. LOOKING
THROUGHOUT NEXT WEEK, ENSEMBLES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A
BLOCKING RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL HELP KEEP DOWNSTREAM
TROUGHING AMPLIFIED OVER THE CENTRAL US. THAT PATTERN TENDS TO FAVOR
AT LEAST A CONTINUATION OF NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES, SO CONDITIONS
SHOULD DO A BETTER JOB OF REFLECTING A NORMAL JANUARY HERE IN STARK
CONTRAST TO THE SPRING-LIKE WEATHER OF THIS WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1150 AM CST WED JAN 7 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS IN THE NEXT
HOUR OR SO WITH SOUTHERLY WIND OF 12 KNOTS OR LESS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. WIND INCREASES AFTER SUNSET WITH SOME GUSTS FROM 20-
25 KNOTS EXPECTED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
ADDITIONALLY, MVFR CEILINGS WILL REDEVELOP TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. LOW CEILINGS MAY REACH KDRT NEAR SUNRISE, BUT CONFIDENCE
WAS LOW ENOUGH TO EXCLUDE FROM THE TAF AT THIS TIME.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 1150 AM CST WED JAN 7 2026
RECORD DAILY MAX TEMPERATURES
WED 01/07 THU 01/08
AUS 80 (1978) 81 (2009)
ATT 80 (1925/1927/1978/2008) 88 (1923)
SAT 86 (1923) 84 (1923)
DRT 83 (1923) 83 (1923/1969)
RECORD DAILY HIGHEST MIN TEMPERATURES
WED 01/07 THU 01/08
AUS 65 (1989/2008) 66 (1965)
ATT 69 (1907) 66 (1907/1965)
SAT 67 (1937) 66 (1965)
DRT 65 (1907) 64 (1907)
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 65 81 59 76 / 0 0 0 30
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 65 82 59 76 / 0 10 0 40
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 64 80 59 76 / 0 0 0 20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 63 78 52 72 / 0 10 0 20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 63 80 52 76 / 0 0 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 65 80 56 75 / 0 10 0 30
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 62 81 57 79 / 0 0 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 64 82 59 77 / 0 0 0 30
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 66 82 65 77 / 0 10 0 50
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 65 80 61 77 / 0 0 0 20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 66 82 62 79 / 0 0 0 10
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...TRAN
LONG TERM....TRAN
AVIATION...27
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