106
FXUS64 KEWX 080619
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1219 AM CST THU JAN 8 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, CLIMATE
KEY MESSAGES
- WELL ABOVE NORMAL TO NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
THURSDAY.
- MULTIPLE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES ARE EXPECTED TO ELEVATE FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1201 AM CST THU JAN 8 2026
GUSTY EARLY MORNING WINDS SIGNAL THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH
THAT WILL HOOK LEFT AND TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA LATER TODAY. THIS
SYSTEM MIGHT GENERATE A FEW SPRINKLES OVER THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AND
HILL COUNTRY, BUT THE SHAPE OF THE LIGHT QPF WOULD NOT SUGGEST AN
OPPORTUNITY FOR DEEP CONVECTION. A NEW DRYLINE PUSH BACK TO THE
I-35 CORRIDOR IS EXPECTED LATE TODAY AND BECOME MORE STATIONARY
OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AS WESTERLY WINDS ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WILL THWART A NIGHTTIME RETREAT WEST. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD STILL
APPROACH THE VALUES FOR RECORDS AND ALSO FOR RECORD HIGH
MINIMUMS. THE MOISTURE SHOULD BE SHALLOW BUT POOLED OVER I-35 WHEN
A POLAR TROUGH SENDS ANOTHER FRONT OUR WAY BY MIDDAY FRIDAY. THE
POTENT UPPER TROUGH SHOULD BRING ENOUGH DYNAMIC LIFT TO TRIGGER
SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS, PERHAPS SOME STRONG ONES, EAST OF I-35
AND NORTH OF I-10 IN THE AFTERNOON WHEN THE BOUNDARIES COLLIDE. SPC
HAS A MARGINAL RISK OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL TX JUST NE OF OUR
FORECAST AREAS, WHICH IS SOMETHING TO BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE
EXPANSION. THE FIRST PUSH OF THE FRONT WILL BE MORE LIKE A
PREFRONTAL TROUGH OR PACIFIC FRONT, SINCE THERE WILL STILL BE A
SURFACE LOW OVER NW TX RESPONDING TO THE STRONG APPROACHING
DYNAMICS OF THE UPPER TROUGH. THE WNW WINDS COLD THUS BE MAINLY 10
TO 20 MPH AND PERHAPS SUITABLE FOR NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS WITHOUT REACHING WARNING CRITERIA.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1201 AM CST THU JAN 8 2026
FRIDAY EVENING, THE MIGHT OF THE UPPER LOW ARRIVES AND WITH IT
THE FULL FORCE OF THE POLAR FRONT. WINDY OVERNIGHT CONDITIONS
INTO SATURDAY MORNING COULD LEAD TO A WIND ADVISORY NEED, BUT FOR
NOW THE MOS GUIDANCES FOR WINDS SUGGEST JUST BELOW CRITERIA.
NEEDLESS TO SAY, COOLER AIR WILL BE COMING, AND SATURDAY INTO
MONDAY TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE LOWER THAN JANUARY NORMALS.
A RELATIVELY WEAK LOW LATITUDE UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS
MEXICO EARLY NEXT WEEK AND HELPS HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN
THROUGH CLOUD COVER. THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME LIGHT PRECIP
TUESDAY. BETTER RAIN CHANCES SHOULD BE FARTHER SOUTH. BRIEF
WARMING OCCURS FROM CLEARING AND A WEAK DRY FRONT WEDNESDAY, BUT A
MORE SIGNIFICANT COLD AIR SURGE LOOKS TO FOLLOW NEXT THURSDAY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1201 AM CST THU JAN 8 2026
LOW LEVEL STRATUS HAS FILLED IN OVER THE HILL COUNTRY WITH MVFR
CEILINGS LIKELY THROUGH THE NIGHT DESPITE BREEZY SOUTHEASTERLY
SURFACE FLOW. A MID-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL
RESULT IN A SWITCH TO SOUTHWESTERLY AND EVEN WESTERLY FLOW BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON ALONG WITH VFR CEILINGS. WINDS SHOULD TURN
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER 00Z FRIDAY.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 1201 AM CST THU JAN 8 2026
RECORD DAILY MAX TEMPERATURES (YEAR/S REACHED):
01/08
AUS 81(2009)
ATT 88(1923)
SAT 84(1923)
DRT 83(1923/1969)
RECORD DAILY HIGHEST MIN TEMPERATURES:
01/08
AUS 66(1965)
ATT 66(1907/1965)
SAT 66(1965)
DRT 66(1965)
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 82 59 76 45 / 0 0 40 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 82 58 76 43 / 0 0 40 10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 81 59 77 45 / 0 0 30 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 79 53 73 40 / 10 0 20 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 80 52 76 43 / 0 0 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 81 56 74 41 / 0 0 30 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 81 57 79 42 / 0 0 10 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 82 59 77 44 / 0 10 30 10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 82 64 78 47 / 10 10 50 10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 80 61 78 46 / 0 0 20 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 82 62 78 47 / 0 0 10 0
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...18
LONG TERM....18
AVIATION...MMM
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