056
FXUS64 KEWX 082326
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
526 PM CST THU JAN 8 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH A LOW-END RISK FOR ISOLATED
SEVERE WEATHER EAST OF I-35 FRIDAY.
- MULTIPLE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES EXPECTED TO ELEVATE FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS THROUGH SATURDAY.
- STRONG COLD FRONT ARRIVES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING
WITH GUSTY WINDS AND MUCH COOLER AIR.
- CHANCES FOR PATCHY FREEZES EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1128 AM CST THU JAN 8 2026
THIS MORNING'S BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD EASE UP AS THE
NEARBY SHARP SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS EJECTED OUT OF THE STATE AND
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AS OF AROUND NOON WEDNESDAY, A WEAK COLD
FRONT AND DRY LINE WERE PUSHING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS
PLATEAU AND HILL COUNTRY, AND IS EXPECTED TO STALL ALONG OVER THE
I-35 CORRIDOR OR COASTAL PLAINS THIS EVENING. IN THE DRIER
CONDITIONS WEST OF THE DRYLINE, EFFICIENT BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING
COULD SUPPORT SOME DRY GUSTS UP TO 20-25 MPH OVER THE SOUTHERN
EDWARDS PLATEAU THIS AFTERNOON.
THE APPROACH OF A SECOND TROUGH FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION TONIGHT
FORCES THE DRYLINE TO STAY PUT WITHOUT THE USUAL WESTWARD REBOUND.
TEMPERATURES WEST OF THE COASTAL PLAINS WILL BE COOLER IN THE 50S
WITH THE DRIER AIR IN PLACE, WHILE THOSE IN THE COASTAL PLAINS ALONG
AND EAST OF THE MOIST BOUNDARY ARE FORECAST TO CONTEND WITH MUGGY
CONDITIONS IN THE 60S WITH PATCHY TO AREAL FOG EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
DIFFUSE LIFT AND MID-LEVEL DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF THE SECOND
TROUGH SHOULD INDUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS NEAR AND ALONG
THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY LATE-MORNING TO EVENING FRIDAY AND FAVORING
AREAS EAST OF I-35 AND NORTH OF I-10 (WITH RAIN CHANCES 30 TO 60
PERCENT). THERE IS WIDE VARIATION BETWEEN HI-RES MODELS IN THE
LOCATION OF THAT BOUNDARY, WHICH IMPACTS THE STRENGTH AND PLACEMENT
OF NEARBY RAINS. MOST PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE LIGHT, BUT THERE IS
ISOLATED POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS GIVEN SUPPORTIVE LAPSE RATES
ALOFT AND STRONG EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR. THE BEST CHANCES FOR STRONGER
STORMS IS OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS WITH SOME EXTENSION POSSIBLE TO
THE AUSTIN AREA IF THE BOUNDARY STAYS A LITTLE FARTHER WEST. THE
PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS INCLUDE ISOLATED POTENTIALS FOR LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS, AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE SPC'S LEVEL 1 OF 5
(MARGINAL) SEVERE RISK AREA MAINLY EAST OF I-35.
FARTHER WEST, A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH SHOULD CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN DRIER
CONDITIONS OVER MOST OF THE HILL COUNTRY AND SOUTHERN EDWARDS
PLATEAU, WITH NORTHWEST FLOW SUPPLYING SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR AND HIGHS
IN THE LOW 70S. ELSEWHERE, TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY FRIDAY
FLUCTUATE DEPENDING ON SHOWER ACTIVITY BUT COULD REACH THE UPPER 70S
TO LOW 80S FOR RAIN-FREE AREAS. A STRONG POLAR FRONT IS FORECAST TO
ARRIVE FRIDAY NIGHT. MORE ON THAT IN THE FOLLOWING SECTION.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1128 AM CST THU JAN 8 2026
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN PROJECTING A POLAR FRONT ARRIVING
FROM THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH ALIGNED NORTHWESTERLY FLOWS
BOTH ABOVE AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT, THE FRONT SHOULD QUICKLY PLOW
ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY. STRONG WINDS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH AND COLD AIR ARE FORECAST TO QUICKLY FOLLOW THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE GUSTIEST CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG
RIDGETOPS IN THE HILL COUNTRY AND IMMEDIATELY DOWNWIND OF THE
BALCONES ESCARPMENT WHERE DOWNSLOPE ENHANCEMENT IS POSSIBLE.
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY MORNING ARE FORECAST TO QUICKLY DROP INTO THE
30S OVER THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU AND HILL COUNTRY WITH 40S FOR
THE I-35 CORRIDOR, COASTAL PLAINS, AND RIO GRANDE PLAINS. THE
COLDEST SPOTS COULD REGISTER WIND CHILLS IN THE 20S.
HIGHS SATURDAY SHOULD BE MUCH MORE SEASONABLE, RESIDING IN THE 50S
AND 60S. MID- TO HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE RACING
ACROSS THE REGION AS THE SUBTROPICAL JET STAYS OVER OUR AREA. AS
BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY, NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER IS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN CLEARER SPOTS AS MUCH DRIER AIR
SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA.
THE BROADER SYNOPTIC PATTERN OVER THE CENTRAL US SUPPORTS CONTINUED
SEASONABLE AND COOL WEATHER THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. FREEZES ARE
POSSIBLE EACH MORNING SUNDAY TO TUESDAY, WITH BETTER CHANCES (UP TO
NEAR 70 PERCENT) OVER THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE CWA MAINLY WEST
OF I-35. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO STAY SEASONABLE IN THE UPPER 50S TO
MID 60S. A STRAGGLING UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO
HELPS MAINTAIN UPPER-LEVEL CLOUD COVER. ITS APPROACH MAY ALSO BRING
LIGHT RAIN CHANCES EARLY TO MID- NEXT WEEK, MAINLY SOUTH OF OUR
AREA, THOUGH THE SYSTEM'S SENSITIVE POSITIONING ON THE TAIL END OF
BROADER TROUGHING LEADS TO SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTIES IN TIMING OF
THOSE RAINS. AS A BROAD TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL US,
THE WINDOW REMAINS OPEN FOR ANOTHER PUSH OF COLD AIR NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 514 PM CST THU JAN 8 2026
VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT
WITH THE HIGH DECK OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION. THE FORECAST THEN
BECOMES MORE TRICKY AND LESS CONFIDENCE OVER THE I-35 TERMINALS
(KAUS, KSAT, AND KSSF) FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE OVERNIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. FOG AND IFR TO LIFR, PERHAPS EVEN VLIFR, CEILINGS
ESTABLISH EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR IN THE COASTAL PLAINS. THESE
CONDITIONS COULD APPROACH THE I-35 TERMINALS BUT MOST GUIDANCE
KEEPS THESE POOR FLIGHT CONDITIONS JUST EAST, WITH VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING. HAVE ELECTED TO INCLUDE A TEMPO GROUP FEATURING SCT
LOW CLOUDS AND SOME MINOR REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY. DURING THE
DAY ON FRIDAY, A SURFACE BOUNDARY/DRYLINE WILL TRIGGER SOME
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY
INTO THE I-35 CORRIDOR. SOME ACTIVITY COULD FIRE INITIALLY DURING
THE LATE MORNING BUT ACTIVITY PEAKS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HAVE
KEPT THE PROB30S FOR -TSRA AT KAUS, KSAT, AND KSSF FROM 18Z TO
00Z AS A RESULT. OTHERWISE, EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE
WITH WINDS OF 8 KT OR LESS. KDRT WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH NO RAIN AND MOSTLY HIGH CLOUDS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 58 75 45 60 / 0 50 10 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 57 75 44 59 / 0 50 10 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 58 76 45 60 / 0 30 10 10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 52 72 40 56 / 0 40 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 51 77 44 60 / 0 0 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 55 73 42 58 / 0 50 10 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 57 79 43 61 / 0 20 0 10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 58 77 45 60 / 0 40 10 10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 63 78 47 60 / 10 50 30 10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 60 77 46 60 / 0 30 0 10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 61 79 47 61 / 0 20 0 10
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...TRAN
LONG TERM....TRAN
AVIATION...62
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