148
FXUS64 KEWX 091116
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
516 AM CST FRI JAN 9 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- A MARGINAL (LEVEL 1 OF 5) RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY OVER
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TX.
- A PAIR OF COLD FRONTS TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL BRING NEAR CRITICAL
TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TX
LATE TODAY INTO SATURDAY.
- CHANCES FOR PATCHY FREEZES SUNDAY AND LATER NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1205 AM CST FRI JAN 9 2026
A PACIFIC FRONT MOVED INTO CENTRAL TX AND LEFT BEHIND A DRY-LINE
OVER THE I-35 CORRIDOR FOR THIS MORNING. AN UPPER LOW WITH STRONG
DYNAMIC LIFT WILL ZERO IN ON NORTH TX TODAY INTO TONIGHT. A JET
OF HIGHER MID LEVEL WINDS SENT OUT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL MIX
DOWN ANOTHER PACIFIC STYLE FRONT OVER THE DRY-LINE AND SHARPEN THE
CONTRAST AS DAYTIME HEATING PICKS UP. THIS COULD LEAVE US A IN A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM SCENARIO WITH LARGE HAIL AND WINDS BEING THE
MAIN CONCERNS. THE AXIS OF WHERE THE INITIATION STARTS IS
SUGGESTED TO BE ROUGHLY HONDO TO MARBLE FALLS, AND THE NEW DAY 1
SEVERE OUTLOOK JUST MIGHT SHOW A TREND IN THIS DIRECTION. THE
COVERAGE AS DEPICTED BY SEVERAL MODEL SOLUTIONS WOULD SUGGEST ONLY
A FEW STRONG CELLS WITH SOME CONVECTION POSSIBLY ONLY MAKING IT TO
SHOWER STATUS. THUS THE QPF DOESNT SUGGEST ANY REAL THREAT FOR
RUN-OFF OTHER THAN JUST MAYBE A COUPLE AREAS GETTING A QUICK 1
INCH RAIN. THE WINDS ALOFT CONTINUE TO ADVANCE THE PACIFIC
FRONTAL ZONE EAST IN THE EVENING AND ENDING RAIN CHANCES OVER OUR
AREA BY MIDNIGHT. OUT WEST WHERE THERE SHOULD BE NO RAIN, THE LATE
AFTERNOON W/NW WINDS COULD BE MAINLY 10 TO 20 MPH AND PERHAPS
SUITABLE FOR NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WITHOUT
REACHING WARNING CRITERIA.
LATE FRIDAY EVENING, THE MIGHT OF THE UPPER LOW ARRIVES INTO THE
EDWARDS PLATEAU AND WITH IT THE FULL FORCE OF THE POLAR FRONT.
WINDY OVERNIGHT CONDITIONS INTO SATURDAY MORNING COULD LEAD TO A
WIND ADVISORY NEED, BUT FOR NOW THE MOS GUIDANCES FOR WINDS
SUGGEST JUST BELOW CRITERIA WINDS. FINER RESOLUTION DATA MIGHT
SUGGEST SOME STRONG WIND GUSTS IN THE 40-45 MPH RANGE, THE
STRONGEST GUSTS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. STRONG COOLING IS
EXPECTED WITH FRONTAL WINDS EXTENDING UP THROUGH A DEEP LAYER, AND
THIS WILL HOPEFULLY HOLD UP RH VALUES FOR MOST AREAS. WITH THE
WINDS BEING CONSIDERABLE, A NEAR CRITICAL TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
DAY IS EXPECTED AND A RFW WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED FOR WESTERN
COUNTIES.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1205 AM CST FRI JAN 9 2026
COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES INTO SUNDAY MORNING AND THE
CONTINUATION OF WIND OVER AREAS GOING CALM MIGHT CURB THE FIRST
FREEZE OF THE SEASON FROM REACHING NEW AREAS. HOWEVER THE NW HILL
COUNTRY COULD SEE CALM WINDS AND ARE SUGGESTED BY SOME MODEL
OUTPUT TO COOL ALL THE WAY INTO THE LOW 20S. OUR VALUES SIT A BIT
HIGHER THAN THIS BUT WE OPTED FOR A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN THE
NBM IN SPOTS FOR THE SUNDAY MORNING LOW.
A RELATIVELY WEAK LOW LATITUDE UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO
MEXICO MONDAY BRINGING A CLOUD CANOPY THAT COULD HOLD DOWN THE
DAYTIME TEMPERATURE. THERE COULD ALSO EVEN BE SOME LIGHT PRECIP
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT MAINLY FOR S/W COUNTIES. BRIEF WARMING
OCCURS FROM CLEARING WEDNESDAY, BUT A MORE SIGNIFICANT COLD AIR
SURGE LOOKS TO ARRIVE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A SHARP MERIDIONAL
PATTERN ALOFT MAKES THIS FRONT APPEAR TO BE BRINGING THE COLDEST
AIR OF THE SEASON, BUT SO FAR THE MACHINE NUMBERS ARE NOT GETTING
THERE. AT A MINIMUM, WE SHOULD SEE THE COLD PERIOD LATER IN THE
WEEK TO BE ON PAR WITH WHAT LOW TEMPERATURES WE SHOULD EXPECT FOR
THIS SUNDAY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 516 AM CST FRI JAN 9 2026
IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS AT KSAT/KSSF AND DEVELOPING SHORTLY AT KAUS
WILL CONTINUE MUCH OF THE DAY WHILE SHRA/TSRA AND NORTHERLY WINDS
OF 5 TO 10 KTS DEVELOP. THEN, THE SHRA/TSRA AND MVFR/IFR CIGS MOVE
OFF TO THE EAST THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. IN WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE,
NORTHERLY WINDS INCREASE TO 15 TO 22 KTS WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 35
KTS, POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1205 AM CST FRI JAN 9 2026
A NEAR STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE I-35 CORRIDOR
TONIGHT WILL BE REINFORCED WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS LATER
TODAY. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM AS THIS BOUNDARY
BECOMES MORE PRONOUNCED, LEADING TO A LOW CHANCE FOR A WETTING
RAIN OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE AREA. OUT
WEST THE POST FRONTAL WINDS SET UP ANOTHER POTENTIAL NEAR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER PATTERN. EVEN STRONGER POST FRONTAL WINDS
WILL OCCUR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, AND MOST OF SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS COULD SEE NEAR CRITICAL AND POTENTIALLY CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. DRY AIR CONTINUES
SUNDAY BUT WINDS SHOULD BE MUCH LIGHTER THEN. THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK WILL BE MOSTLY DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 72 45 59 36 / 60 20 0 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 73 44 59 33 / 60 20 0 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 74 45 60 34 / 60 20 10 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 71 40 56 30 / 40 0 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 77 43 60 31 / 0 0 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 72 42 58 30 / 50 10 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 77 43 61 29 / 40 0 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 74 44 60 32 / 60 20 10 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 76 47 59 36 / 70 50 10 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 74 46 60 35 / 50 10 10 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 76 48 61 34 / 50 10 10 0
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...18
LONG TERM....18
AVIATION...04
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