157
FXUS64 KEWX 091805
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1205 PM CST FRI JAN 9 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- MARGINAL (LEVEL 1 OF 5) RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS ALONG AND EAST OF I-
35 CORRIDOR TODAY ENDING BY TONIGHT
- NEAR CRITICAL TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER PARTS OF
WESTERN CWA REST OF TODAY INTO SATURDAY
- ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES WITH A FREEZE POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1201 PM CST FRI JAN 9 2026
CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND MAYBE
LIGHT RAIN REACHING THE GROUND AS NOTED BY SEVERAL REPORTS ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA. WITHIN THE LAST HOUR OR SO WE HAVE
SEEN AN UPTICK IN THUNDERSTORMS FORMING OVER SAN ANGELO'S CWA. HAVE
INCREASED THE POSSIBILITY OF OUR NORTHERNMOST COUNTIES IN THE HILL
COUNTRY FOR SEEING THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO THE FORMATION OF THESE
STORMS. CLOUDS ARE REMAINING THICK AS A COLD FRONT JUST OFF TO OUR
NORTHWEST APPROACHES THE AREA. IT'S THIS FRONT THAT WE EXPECT COULD
TRIGGER SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS AS WE ARE BEGINNING TO SEE(SOME
STRONG TO SEVERE) MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF I-35. AS SUCH THE SPC HAS
KEPT THESE AREAS IN A MARGINAL (1 OF 5 RISK) FOR SEVERE WEATHER WITH
THE MAIN RISKS BEING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. RIGHT NOW, AGREE
WITH WHAT SPC HAS OUT WITH THE AUSTIN AND SAN ANTONIO METRO AREAS
GREATEST RISK BEING LARGE HAIL AS THESE AREAS WILL REMAIN CLOSER TO
THE COLD FRONT. BECAUSE OF THIS, STORMS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY
ELEVATED AS THE BETTER CAPE AND FORCING IS LOCATED JUST TO THE EAST
OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS. IT'S HERE THAT WE EXPECT THE BEST CHANCE
FOR ANY SEVERE STORMS TO OCCUR. THOSE HOPING FOR RAIN SHOULDN'T
EXPECT TOO MUCH WITH MOST AREAS REAMING UNDER A HALF INCH AS THESE
SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD MOVE RELATIVELY QUICK AND SOMEWHAT
PARALLEL TO THE COLD FRONT. ALL AREAS SHOULD SEE AN END TO RAIN AND
STORM CHANCES BY EARLY THIS EVENING IF NOT SOONER AS COVERAGE
DECREASES FROM WEST TO EAST. BEHIND THIS FRONT EXPECT SOME GUSTY
WINDS WITH CAA REALLY RAMPING UP BY TOMORROW.
LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD DROP DOWN IN THE 40S EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR
WITH UPPER 30S EXPECTED WEST AND IN THE HILL COUNTRY. FOR SATURDAY
WE DON'T WARM UP ALL THAT MUCH DUE TO THE CONTINUED CAA INTO OUR CWA
ON THE BACKSIDE OF SOME STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS. WE SHOULD REMAIN
JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA THOUGH FUTURE SHIFTS MAY NEED TO
REASSESS AS THE NBM TENDS TO UNDER PERFORM WITH WINDS ON BACKSIDE OF
THESE TYPES OF FRONTS. SATURDAY NIGHT IS WHERE WE COULD REALLY SEE
LOWS PLUMMET WITH MANY AREAS OUT WEST DROPPING BELOW FREEZING WITH
SOME AREAS IN THE HILL COUNTRY AND RIO GRANDE PLAINS GETTING AS LOW
AS THE UPPER 20S. DEFINITELY EXPECT A LIGHT TO HARD FREEZE AS A
COUPLE OF THESE COUNTIES HAVEN'T HAD A FREEZE YET THIS YEAR. AREAS TO
THE EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR SHOULD REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S
HOWEVER.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1201 PM CST FRI JAN 9 2026
THE LONG TERM STARTS OFF WITH CAA CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY WITH HIGH
TEMPS REMAINING CLOSER TO SEASONABLE LEVELS WHICH WILL FEEL COOLER
DUE TO THE CONTINUED RECENT WARMTH MOST OF THE AREA HAS EXPERIENCED
THE PAST WEEK. HIGHS SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.
BEYOND SUNDAY THE BROADER SYNOPTIC PATTERN OVER THE CENTRAL US
SUPPORTS CONTINUED SEASONABLE AND COOL WEATHER THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. A SOMEWHAT WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES OUT OF NORTHERN
MEXICO AND INTO SOUTH TEXAS BY MONDAY BRINGING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS
THAT COULD HOLD DOWN THE DAYTIME TEMPERATURE. ADDITIONALLY THERE
COULD ALSO BE SOME LIGHT PRECIP MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT MAINLY FOR
OUR COUNTIES ALONG THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND PERHAPS AS FAR NORTH AS
THE I-10 TO SAN ANTONIO TO PLEASANTON LINE. A SHARP MERIDIONAL
PATTERN ALOFT MAKES THIS FRONT/DISTURBANCE APPEAR TO BE BRINGING THE
COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON, HOWEVER MODELS AREN'T QUITE CATCHING ON
TO THIS THUS HELPING TO KEEP US WARMER ACROSS THE AREA THAN WHAT MAY
BE REALIZED. IN ANY CASE CONTINUE TO CHECK BACK AS THE FORECAST
DETAILS BECOME CLEARER IN THE COMING DAYS AS THE PATTERN REMAINS
VERY ACTIVE FOR OUR AREA.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1201 PM CST FRI JAN 9 2026
IFR/MVFR CEILINGS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO LIFT WITH IFR CONDITIONS
CONTINUING AT SAT/SSF THROUGH AT LEAST 19Z THEN MVFR CONDITIONS
REMAINING INTO THE MID-AFTERNOON. AT AUS, VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
RETURN SOONER THROUGH CEILINGS WILL REMAIN AROUND 3.5-4KFT INTO THE
AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE FROM THE HILL COUNTRY EAST TODAY. THERE STILL REMAINS
UNCERTAINTY IN STORM COVERAGE NEAR TERMINALS SO HAVE CONTINUED
PROB30 GROUPS. LOW CEILINGS MOVE TO THE EAST THIS EVENING WITH AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. NORTHERLY WIND BEHIND THIS FEATURE
WILL BECOME GUSTY WITH SUSTAINED WIND FROM 15-22 KNOTS AND GUSTS
FROM 25-35 KNOTS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1205 AM CST FRI JAN 9 2026
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE I-35 CORRIDOR TODAY INTO TONIGHT WILL BE
REINFORCED WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS. A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM AS THIS BOUNDARY BECOMES MORE PRONOUNCED,
LEADING TO A LOW CHANCE FOR A WETTING RAIN OVER THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE AREA. OUT WEST THE POST FRONTAL WINDS SET
UP ANOTHER POTENTIAL NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER PATTERN. EVEN
STRONGER POST FRONTAL WINDS WILL OCCUR LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
MOST OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS COULD SEE NEAR CRITICAL AND
POTENTIALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY
SATURDAY. DRY AIR CONTINUES SUNDAY BUT WINDS SHOULD BE MUCH
LIGHTER THEN. THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE MOSTLY DRY AND
REMAINING SEASONABLY COOL THUS REDUCING THE CHANCES FOR FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS IN THE LONG TERM.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 44 60 38 62 / 10 0 0 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 44 59 37 62 / 20 0 0 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 44 60 37 60 / 10 0 0 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 39 56 32 59 / 0 0 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 43 61 33 60 / 0 0 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 41 58 35 61 / 10 0 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 43 61 34 61 / 0 0 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 44 61 36 62 / 10 0 0 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 47 59 37 62 / 40 0 0 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 46 60 39 61 / 0 0 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 48 61 40 62 / 10 0 0 0
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...CJM
LONG TERM....CJM
AVIATION...27
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