662
FXUS64 KEWX 101855
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1255 PM CST SAT JAN 10 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES WITH A WIDESPREAD FREEZE LIKELY BY SUNDAY
MORNING FOR NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA
- SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR NEXT WEEK WITH LOW (10-30%) CHANCE
OF RAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CST SAT JAN 10 2026
AS IT CURRENTLY SITS LOOKING AT TEMPS WE HAVEN'T WARMED UP ALL THAT
MUCH DUE IN PART TO THE STRONG CAA TAKING PLACE AS WE REMAIN IN A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT SITUATION. YOU MAY HAVE NOTICED THE
NORTHERLY WINDS KICKING UP TODAY WHICH IS ALSO ANOTHER REASON WHY WE
HAVE REMAINED COOLER. WE CONTINUE TO REMAIN JUST BELOW WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA AND WE EXPECT THAT TREND TO CONTINUE AS THE TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT MOVES AWAY FROM US RESULTING IN LIGHT TO MOSTLY CALM WINDS
FOR TONIGHT.
SPEAKING OF TONIGHT, ITS A TRICKY FORECAST AS WE COULD SEE SOME HIGH
TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVERSPREAD THE REGION HELPING TEMPS TO STAY
SOMEWHAT ELEVATED OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER, IF THESE CLOUDS ARE MORE
SPARSE AND WE SEE MORE CLEARING WE COULD REALLY SEE TEMPS PLUMMET
DUE TO EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. RIGHT NOW ITS LOOKING MORE
LIKELY THAT VAL VERDE AND KINNEY COUNTIES WILL EXPERIENCE A FREEZE
AS THEY REMAIN JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE EXPECTED MID TO HIGH LEVEL
CLOUD DECK. BOTH OF THESE COUNTIES HAVE YET TO EXPERIENCE A
WIDESPREAD FREEZE SO WE WENT AHEAD AN ISSUED A FREEZE WARNING THAT'S
IN EFFECT FROM 3AM TONIGHT UNTIL 9AM TOMORROW MORNING. OTHER AREAS
IN THE HILL COUNTRY ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO SEE A WIDESPREAD FREEZE
WITH MANY AREAS POSSIBLY DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 20S. HOWEVER, SINCE
ALL OF THESE COUNTIES HAVE ALREADY EXPERIENCED A FREEZE THIS SEASON
A FREEZE WARNING WAS NOT NEEDED. IF WE GET ENOUGH MID TO HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT WE COULD SEE THESE CLOUDS TAMP DOWN TEMPS FOR
SUNDAY AS WELL WITH MANY AREAS WHILE BEING SEASONABLE, LIKELY
REMAINING IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S WITH A CONTINUED NORTHERLY
SURFACE WIND. SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD NOT BE AS COLD AS TONIGHT AS
CLOUDS FROM AN EVENTUAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO
CONTINUE TO PUSH THERE WAY NORTHEASTWARD. MANY AREAS SUNDAY NIGHT
SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 40S WITH A CONTINUED LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CST SAT JAN 10 2026
THE BROADER SYNOPTIC PATTERN OVER THE CENTRAL US SUPPORTS CONTINUED
SEASONABLE AND COOL WEATHER THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A SOMEWHAT WEAK
UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES OUT OF NORTHERN MEXICO AND INTO SOUTH TEXAS
BY MONDAY THAT LIKELY BRINGS IN AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS THAT COULD
HOLD DOWN DAYTIME TEMPERATURE. ADDITIONALLY, THERE COULD ALSO BE
SOME LIGHT PRECIP MONDAY NIGHT MAINLY FOR OUR COUNTIES ALONG THE RIO
GRANDE PLAINS AND PERHAPS AS FAR NORTH AS THE I-10 TO SAN ANTONIO TO
PLEASANTON LINE THOUGH CHANCES REMAIN LOW (10-30%) EXPECT MOST OF
THE PRECIP FROM THIS DISTURBANCE TO PUSH OUT OF THE AREA BY EARLY
TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW PUSHES OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST. HIGH AND
LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN SEASONABLE THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS WE
CONTINUE TO LACK SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AS WE REMAIN IN A SPLIT
FLOW PATTERN WITH THE POLAR JET TO OUR NORTH AND THE SUBTROPICAL JET
TO OUR SOUTH. BY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY THE POLAR JET TAKES A DIVE
SOUTHWARD CREATING A SHARP MERIDIONAL PATTERN ALOFT AND REMAINS
WHILE THE SUBTROPICAL JET RETREATS FURTHER SOUTHWARDS. THIS HELPS TO
KEEP THE DOOR OPEN FOR THE POSSIBILITIES OF SEEING SOME MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURES SLIDING SOUTHWARD OVER OUR AREA ROUGHLY A WEEK OR SO
AWAY. STAY TUNED FOR FUTURE UPDATES.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CST SAT JAN 10 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. NORTH WIND FROM 15-
20 KNOTS AND GUSTS OF 25-30 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL DECREASE THIS
EVENING FROM 5-10 KNOTS. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WIND IS EXPECTED SUNDAY
AFTER 18Z AT 12 KNOTS OR LESS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CST SAT JAN 10 2026
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING DRY AIR AND BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS TO
ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS TODAY. WHILE FIRE DANGER SHOULD MAINLY BE
IN THE MODERATE CATEGORY, WITH PERHAPS A FEW POCKETS OF HIGH, THE
INCREASE IN WINDS AND DRY AIR WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED TO NEAR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY. A RANGELAND FIRE DANGER
STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
UNTIL 7 PM. WIND SPEEDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING
ACROSS ALL AREAS, BUT DRY AIR REMAINS IN PLACE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 37 64 41 62 / 0 0 0 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 36 63 38 61 / 0 0 0 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 36 63 40 61 / 0 0 0 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 32 61 37 61 / 0 0 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 33 61 44 60 / 0 0 10 10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 34 62 36 61 / 0 0 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 33 63 41 61 / 0 0 0 10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 35 63 38 61 / 0 0 0 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 37 62 38 61 / 0 0 0 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 38 63 43 61 / 0 0 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 39 64 44 62 / 0 0 0 0
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CST SUNDAY FOR TXZ183-202.
SHORT TERM...CJM
LONG TERM....CJM
AVIATION...27
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