159
FXUS64 KEWX 121115
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
515 AM CST MON JAN 12 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND A LOW CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN FOR MOST AREAS
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
- TEMPERATURES TREND BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL MID TO LATE WEEK, WITH
COOLER TEMPERATURES LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1215 AM CST MON JAN 12 2026
THE 12/00Z SOUNDING FROM DEL RIO SHOWED PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN THE
500-300MB LAYER WITH ANOTHER AREA OF MOISTURE BETWEEN ROUGHLY 700-
600MB. EARLIER OBSERVATIONS NEAR DEL RIO DID SHOW SOME LIGHT RAIN
REACHING THE GROUND. INCOMING MODELS GENERALLY AGREE IN SHOWING THE
BETTER CHANCE FOR ANY MEASURABLE RAINFALL TO REMAIN OVER THE RIO
GRANDE PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU REGION THIS
MORNING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN ONE-TENTH OF AN
INCH OR LOWER, ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE VERY DRY AIR IN THE SUB-CLOUD
LAYER. PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND SPREAD OVER
OUR AREA TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE OVER WESTERN
HILL COUNTRY AND THE I-37 CORRIDOR WEST TO THE RIO GRANDE.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1215 AM CST MON JAN 12 2026
THE ABOVE MENTIONED UPPER LOW OPENS AND MOVES EAST OF OUR REGION
LATE TUESDAY, SO WE WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR TUESDAY NIGHT.
AGAIN, WE DON'T EXPECT TO SEE ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AMOUNTS, BUT
ANYTHING WILL BE WELCOMED GIVEN THE LACK OF RAINFALL OVER MOST OF
THE REGION. CLOUDS DECREASE AND A QUICK WARMUP WILL COMMENCE FOR
MOST AREAS ON WEDNESDAY. A PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, SO WE WILL KEEP HIGHS CLOSER TO
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS IN THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU AND HILL
COUNTRY, WITH ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS ELSEWHERE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS A FREEZE IS IN STORE FOR THE HILL
COUNTRY AND SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU.
ON THURSDAY, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY SLIDES SOUTHEAST OF THE
REGION AND WITH A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE PANHANDLE,
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RETURN TO MOST AREAS. HIGHS ON THURSDAY SHOULD
REMAIN NEAR NORMAL, BUT WILL TREND ABOVE NORMAL ON FRIDAY. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN FRIDAY, WITH SOME DISAGREEMENT NOTED AMONG
THE LATEST ROUND OF GLOBAL MODELS ON HOW QUICKLY THE FRONT MOVES
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. WE MAY NEED TO TRIM BACK ON FORECAST
HIGHS ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY IF THE FASTER CANADIAN AND ECMWF
SOLUTIONS VERIFY. THE LAST FEW RUNS OF BOTH THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND
ECMWF HAS TRENDED UPWARD WITH TEMPERATURES FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
WE WILL KEEP HIGHS NEAR TO JUST BELOW NORMAL ON SATURDAY, WITH
TEMPERATURES TRENDING TO SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON SUNDAY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 515 AM CST MON JAN 12 2026
VFR CIGS GRADUALLY LOWER AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES, THOUGH
REMAIN ABOVE FL035. THE LOWEST CIGS WILL BE IN SHRA WITH BRIEF MVFR
VSBYS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE AND EDWARDS PLATEAU THIS
MORNING AND MOST AREAS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. WINDS REMAIN
LIGHT AND VRBL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 64 46 63 45 / 0 20 20 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 63 45 62 43 / 0 20 20 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 63 45 61 42 / 0 30 20 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 60 42 60 41 / 20 10 20 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 61 45 61 41 / 20 50 10 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 63 44 62 43 / 0 10 10 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 62 44 60 39 / 10 40 10 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 64 45 62 42 / 0 20 10 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 64 45 63 43 / 0 20 10 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 63 48 61 45 / 10 30 20 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 63 48 61 43 / 10 40 10 0
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...PLATT
LONG TERM....PLATT
AVIATION...04
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