501
FXUS64 KEWX 130010
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
610 PM CST MON JAN 12 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- CLOUDY WITH OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES THROUGH TUESDAY
- SEASONABLE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE WARMTH OVER THE NEXT WEEK
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1207 PM CST MON JAN 12 2026
THIS MORNING FEATURES PLENTY OF MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WITH THE
OCCASIONAL EMBEDDED REGION OR TWO OF LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES. AS THE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION HAD NOTED, THIS IS ATTRIBUTED TO MID TO HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW TO OUR WEST IN
MEXICO. THIS MORNING'S 12Z DEL RIO SOUNDING SHOWED THE MOISTURE
LAYER BETWEEN THE 750 MB TO 300 MB LEVEL WITH DRY AIR IN THE SUB-
CLOUD LAYER. THIS DRY AIR IN THE SUB-CLOUD LAYER WILL RESULT IN
QUITE A BIT OF VIRGA WHILE ANY ACTIVITY THAT IS ABLE TO REACH THE
GROUND SHOULDN'T AMOUNT TO MUCH MORE THAN A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN
INCH. AS THE UPPER LOW ADVANCES EASTWARD THROUGH CENTRAL TEXAS
OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY, THE LIGHT RAIN CHANCES PEAK (20-35%) OVER
THE REGION. THIS IS WHEN THE FORCING MAXIMIZES AND THE MOISTURE
COLUMN DEEPENS SLIGHTLY MORE TO PROVIDE THE SLIGHTLY BETTER
OPPORTUNITY FOR LIGHT RAIN REACHING THE GROUND. THE LIGHT RAIN
CHANCES COME TO AN END BY TUESDAY EVENING AS THE UPPER LOW PUSHES
EASTWARD. THE CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES SEASONABLE
WITH DAYTIME HIGHS FROM THE MID 50S TO THE MID 60S. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 40S FOR MOST, BUT ANTICIPATE SOME LOCATIONS
DIPPING AS LOW AS THE 30S, ESPECIALLY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, AS
SKIES CLEAR BEHIND THE EXITING UPPER LOW.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1207 PM CST MON JAN 12 2026
A DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES THROUGH THE LONG TERM AS
TROUGHING ESTABLISHES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE EAST COAST OF
THE CONUS. WEDNESDAY SHOULD INITIALLY WARM UP QUICKLY UNDER THE
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BUT A DRY COLD FRONT ARRIVES MIDDAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS IN IT'S WAKE AND ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS. WINDS GRADUALLY WEAKEN BY THE OVERNIGHT AND
YIELD TO A COOLER START ON THURSDAY MORNING AND A SLIGHTLY COOLER
AFTERNOON ON THURSDAY COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY. LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW
RETURNS INTO FRIDAY AND THIS YIELDS TO A MILDER FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER DRY FRONT ARRIVES BY AROUND FRIDAY EVENING. THIS HELPS
BRINGS TEMPERATURES BACK TO SEASONABLE LEVELS INTO THIS WEEKEND.
THERE ARE DIFFERENCES WITHIN THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE BUT ANOTHER
COLD FRONT, MAY ADVANCE ACROSS THE REGION BY LATE WEEKEND. GIVEN
DIFFERENCES, HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES FOR THIS PERIOD NEAR THE NBM
OUTPUT.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 607 PM CST MON JAN 12 2026
NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED FROM THE 18Z PACKAGE. SOME FOCUS OF THE RAIN
EXPECTED AS A PROB30 GROUP WAS SHIFTED BACK IN TIME AT MOST SITES
GIVEN THE LATEST OUTPUT OF THE RAPID REFRESH MODELS. SKIES STILL
LOOK TO BE VFR FOR THE PERIODS, BUT THERE MIGHT BE A SMALL TIME
WINDOW FOR MVFR CIGS AT DRT, SHOULD ENOUGH SHOWER ACTIVITY IMPACT
THEM CLOSER TO DAYBREAK TUESDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN MAINLY NEAR OR
BELOW 7 KT THROUGH THE PERIOD AND WILL TREND MORE OUT OF THE SW
ON TUESDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 45 63 44 69 / 20 20 0 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 43 62 42 69 / 20 20 0 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 44 62 42 70 / 30 20 0 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 42 60 40 65 / 20 20 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 45 60 40 73 / 40 20 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 43 61 42 67 / 20 20 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 44 61 38 72 / 30 20 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 44 62 41 70 / 30 20 0 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 45 62 43 70 / 20 20 0 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 46 61 44 70 / 30 20 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 47 62 42 72 / 30 20 0 0
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...62
LONG TERM....62
AVIATION...18
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