964
FXUS64 KEWX 132356
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
556 PM CST TUE JAN 13 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- CLOUDS COULD STAY LONGER ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TODAY AS THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER WEST TEXAS PUSHES TO THE SOUTHEAST AND OPENS AS IT
GETS TO THE COASTAL PLAINS TONIGHT.
- A COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS ON WEDNESDAY
BRINGS BREEZY AND GUSTY NORTH WINDS.
- ELEVATED TO NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT.
- STAYS DRY FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES
RUNNING CLOSE TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AND ABOVE NORMAL VALUES.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1202 PM CST TUE JAN 13 2026
LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY AS OF 11:45 AM CST, SHOWS PLENTY OF
MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER WEST
TEXAS/TRANS-PECOS AREA. EVENT THOUGH THE SURFACE TO 5KFT LAYER IS
DRY AND VERIFIED WITH THE 12Z DRT AND FORECAST POINTS ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA, MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH
LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. THE LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY OF THIS
MORNING ACROSS MOST OF THE HILL COUNTRY AND ALONG AND EAST OF I-35
CORRIDOR CONTINUES TO PUSH TO THE EAST. WITHIN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS, THE RAIN IS LIKELY TO BE TO OUR EAST LEAVING THE LOCAL AREA
RAIN-FREE FROM MID AFTERNOON AND ON. TODAY'S HIGHS ARE FORECAST
TO REACH THE MID 60S FOR MOST LOCATIONS WHICH ALIGN WELL WITH
CLIMATE NORMAL VALUES.
AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PUSHES AND OPENS AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAINS TONIGHT, SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY TO CLEAR
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S. BY THE COMMUTE TIME FRAME IN THE
MORNING, THERE IS A HIGH PROBABILITY FOR WINDS TO BE 10 MPH OR LESS,
HOWEVER, AROUND 8 AM CST, A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH ACROSS
THE HILL COUNTRY AND CONTINUES TO PUSH ACROSS THE REST OF THE LOCAL
AREA THROUGH THE MORNING PERIOD. THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IS A DRY ONE,
HOWEVER, IT IS A WIND PRODUCER WITH HIGH PROBABILITIES OF HAVING A
NORTH WIND COMPONENT WITH WIND SPEEDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH FOR A GOOD
PORTION OF THE LOCAL AREA AND WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 MPH. CAN'T RULE
OUT HIGHER VALUES AROUND 40 MPH OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
WITH THIS TYPE OF WIND SPEEDS AND MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
IN THE 20S, WE ARE LOOKING INTO AN ELEVATED TO NEAR-CRITICAL WEATHER
FIRE CONCERNS DAY ON WEDNESDAY. IT IS LIKELY THAT WE WILL ISSUE A
FIRE DANGER STATEMENT LATER TONIGHT FOR WEDNESDAY. SEE THE FIRE
WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR MORE INFORMATION.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1202 PM CST TUE JAN 13 2026
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY STAYS DRY WITH ANOTHER DRY COLD FRONT PUSHING
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA BETWEEN FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A COLD
AIRMASS FOLLOWS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO BRING SATURDAY'S LOWS INTO
THE MID 30S ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND 40S ELSEWHERE. THE COLD
AIRMASS REMAINS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.
THE NEXT COLD FRONT ARRIVES SOMETIMES MONDAY OR LATE MONDAY INTO
EARLY TUESDAY. THIS NEXT FRONT BRINGS THE CHANCES FOR RAIN ACROSS
MOST AREAS. IT COULD ALSO BRING BREEZY AND GUSTY CONDITIONS. HIGHS
EARLY NEXT WEEK ARE PROJECTED TO REMAIN BETWEEN THE UPPER 50S TO
UPPER 60S WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 541 PM CST TUE JAN 13 2026
LIGHT SPRINKLES HAVE SHIFTED FAR ENOUGH EAST TO BE A NON-FACTOR
FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. SOME PATCHY CEILINGS AT 5-10 KFT WILL
CONTINUE FOR A FEW HOURS AND THEN CLEAR OUT LATER THIS EVENING.
LIGHT WINDS WILL HAVE SOME WESTERLY COMPONENTS THROUGH THE NIGHT.
WINDS AT DRT WILL TURN NW FIRST AND PICK UP THE FASTEST AFTER
DAYBREAK AS THE NEXT BIG FRONT ARRIVES. LITTLE OR NO CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT AS IT SHOWS A MORE DRAMATIC CHANGE IN WIND
OVER THE I-35 CORRIDOR BETWEEN 14Z AND 17Z. THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO BECOME LESS GUSTY AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1202 PM CST TUE JAN 13 2026
ELEVATED TO NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL LEAVE BEHIND
BREEZY TO GUSTY CONDITIONS IN COMBINATION WITH LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES. NORTHERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH AND GUSTS OF 30
TO 35 MPH COMBINED WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE 20S COULD
HELP THE SPREAD OF ANY FIRES THAT IGNITE. WITH THAT BEING SAID,
IT IS LIKELY FOR A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT TO BE ISSUED LATER
TONIGHT FOR WEDNESDAY AS NEW DATA COMES IN FOR THE TONIGHT
FORECAST PACKAGE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 46 69 39 62 / 0 0 0 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 43 69 37 63 / 0 0 0 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 43 69 37 63 / 0 0 0 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 43 64 35 62 / 0 0 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 43 73 40 70 / 0 0 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 44 67 35 62 / 0 0 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 40 72 37 66 / 0 0 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 43 70 37 64 / 0 0 0 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 44 70 37 61 / 0 0 0 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 46 70 41 65 / 0 0 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 43 72 42 65 / 0 0 0 0
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...18
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