123
FXUS64 KEWX 140612
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1212 AM CST WED JAN 14 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- A COLD FRONT TO BRING BREEZY AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TODAY.
- ELEVATED TO NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
FOR TODAY IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT.
- STAYS DRY THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING CLOSE TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW AND ABOVE NORMAL VALUES.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1212 AM CST WED JAN 14 2026
A QUICK WARM-UP TAKES SHAPE EARLY TODAY AS A POLAR COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. THE DRY
AIR AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE
60S AND 70S, WITH THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES ALONG AND SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 90. MODERATE TO DRY VEGETATION FUELS ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHWEST
COUNTIES COULD MAKE ANY WILDFIRES THAT DEVELOP BECOME DIFFICULT TO
CONTROL.
WHILE THE UPPER TROUGH BRINGING THE FRONT BRINGS A GOOD DAYTIME
PUNCH, THE DEEPEST PART OF THIS TROUGH IS MORE FOCUSED OVER THE
GREAT LAKES AND LEAVES SOME OF THE BETTER SURFACE RIDGING TO MISS US
TO THE NORTHEAST. THE SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LESS GUSTY BY MID
EVENING BUT SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT STEADY AT 5 TO 10 MPH THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT, SO THE FORECAST MIN TEMPS FROM THIS SYSTEM SHOULDN'T
OFFER ANY NEW AREAS FOR A FREEZE THREAT. MOST OF THE TWO MAJOR
URBAN AREAS AND AREAS SOUTH OF HWY 90 SHOULD STAY ABOVE FREEZING.
THANKS TO A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN, SURFACE WINDS MAY ONLY GO LIGHT FOR
JUST A FEW HOURS AROUND OR AFTER DAYBREAK THURSDAY, AS BUILDING
UPPER HEIGHTS LEAD TO A QUICK RETURN TO SW WINDS ACROSS ALL AREAS BY
21Z. THIS BRINGS A DECENT WARMUP OF DAYTIME TEMPS TO REACH OR BARELY
EXCEED MID JANUARY NORMALS FOR THE DAILY MAX.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1212 AM CST WED JAN 14 2026
HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL TREND BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL, BUT ANOTHER COLD
FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION IN THE AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER SHARP POLAR
TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MIXING FROM NW WINDS EARLY
IN THE POST-FRONTAL PHASE WILL PROBABLY LEAD TO FURTHER WARMING
BEFORE COLD AIR ADVECTION GETS MORE ESTABLISHED IN THE EARLY
EVENING. THE UPPER TROUGH BROADENS INTO A BOWL SHAPE OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS BY SATURDAY WHICH SHOULD SUGGEST ADDITIONAL SECONDARY
SURGES OF SURFACE RIDGING AND COLD AIR ADVECTION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THIS IS A POTENTIAL FOR COLDER MINS FROM THIS REINFORCING
PATTERN, BUT SUBTLE CHANGES IN THESE SECONDARY COLD AIR SURGES COULD
NOT BE WELL-TIMED LEADING TO LOWER CONFIDENCE AND A MORE COMFORTABLE
LEAN ON THE BASIC MODEL BLENDS.
A FLAT ZONAL PATTERN IS OVER TX MONDAY TO ALLOW FOR SOME RETURN FLOW
MOISTURE BACK INTO CENTRAL TX, AND THE NEXT FRONT TO ARRIVE PERHAPS
LATE MONDAY COULD SIGNAL ANOTHER OPPORTUNITY TO SEE SOME RAIN. THIS
COLD FRONT HAS A CHANCE TO BE OF THE CANADIAN VARIETY WITH PERHAPS
SOME ELEVATED MOISTURE TRACKING OVER SOUTH TX. THERE WAS AT LEAST A
COUPLE CURRENT AND PRIOR DETERMINISTIC RUNS SUGGESTING A BIT OF
WINTER PRECIP COULD OVERRUN THIS COLD AIR TUESDAY, BUT THE BROADER
SIGNALS OF THE ENSEMBLES MEANS AND MOST OF THEIR MEMBERS POINT
TOWARD A COLD LIGHT RAIN IF ANYTHING.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1212 AM CST WED JAN 14 2026
VFR SKC FLYING CONDITIONS PREVAIL, ALTHOUGH FEW-SCT CLOUDS ABOVE
FL060 CAN BE EXPECTED, AT TIMES. LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TURN TO
NORTHWESTERLY EARLY IN THE MORNING, THEN INCREASE TO NORTHERLY AND
BECOME BREEZY/GUSTY MID TO LATE MORNING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS
OUR AREA, THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN WEDNESDAY NIGHT DUE TO DECOUPLING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1212 AM CST WED JAN 14 2026
WE OPTED FOR A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES
WHERE THE WARMEST AIR WILL BE WHEN THE WINDS ARE GUSTY. THE FUELS
ASSESSMENTS ARE BORDERLINE, BUT THE LACK OF WETTING RAINS OVER THIS
REGION FOR SEVERAL WEEKS MEANS WE MAY HAVE MORE CURED FUELS THERE,
REGARDLESS OF WHETHER A FREEZE HAS OCCURRED THUS FAR.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 68 37 64 44 / 0 0 0 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 68 37 64 42 / 0 0 0 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 69 37 65 40 / 0 0 0 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 64 34 64 42 / 0 0 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 73 40 70 41 / 0 0 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 66 34 63 45 / 0 0 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 72 36 67 38 / 0 0 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 69 36 65 41 / 0 0 0 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 69 36 62 41 / 0 0 0 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 69 40 65 42 / 0 0 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 72 41 65 41 / 0 0 0 0
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...18
LONG TERM....18
AVIATION...04
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