124
FXUS64 KEWX 150623
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1223 AM CST THU JAN 15 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT
BRINGING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
- COLDEST AIR OF THIS WINTER SEASON TO BRING WHAT SHOULD BE THE
FIRST WIDESPREAD FREEZE TO ALL AREAS SUNDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1207 AM CST THU JAN 15 2026
A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH THAT BROUGHT US THE WEDNESDAY COLD
FRONT WILL PULL EAST IN A PROGRESSIVE FASHION, ALLOWING FOR HEIGHT
FIELDS TO RECOVER QUICKLY OVER TX. THE COLDEST AIR FROM THIS SYSTEM
WILL THUS NOT MAKE IT THIS FAR SOUTH, AND WE'LL PROBABLY ONLY SEE
FREEZING TEMPERATURES TO COVER MOST OF THE HILL COUNTRY WHILE MOST
AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE ESCARPMENT REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING THIS
MORNING. SURFACE WINDS MAY GO LIGHT FOR A FEW HOURS IN THE 11Z-15Z
TIMEFRAME, BUT WINDS ALOFT BECOME WEST TO SOUTHWEST AND MIX THIS
WARMING EFFECT TO THE SURFACE BY AROUND 21Z. THE WIND CHANGES WILL
NOT HAVE A FULL DAY TO IMPACT WARMING, BUT SHOULD COMBINE WITH
SUNNY SKIES ENOUGH TO AT LEAST GET US BACK TO A NORMAL MID-JANUARY
MAX IF NOT ABOUT 4 DEGREES WARMER. THE AIR WILL STILL BE QUITE
DRY, BUT MOST OF THE RETURN FLOW WINDS WILL NOT PICK UP ENOUGH TO
CAUSE A FIRE WEATHER CONCERN, PERHAPS THE EXCEPTIONS BEING OVER
AREAS NORTH OF A DEL RIO TO BURNET LINE.
WINDS TONIGHT WILL GRADUALLY PICK UP AND BRING ONLY A MODEST RETURN
OF MOISTURE BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY, AND NOT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A MORNING
LOW CLOUD LAYER. THE RETURN WINDS WILL CERTAINLY BE ENOUGH TO KEEP
FRIDAY MORNING LOWS WELL ABOVE FREEZING. DAYTIME FRIDAY WILL
CONTINUE TO HAVE GOOD MIXING WITH SURFACE WINDS INFLUENCED FROM THE
MID LEVEL WESTERLIES LEADING TO A HEALTHY WARM-UP INTO THE MID 60S
NORTH TO MID 70S SOUTH. THE BEGINNINGS OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT ARRIVE
IN THE AFTERNOON, AND PERHAPS A FEW HOURS LATER IN THE DAY THAN WAS
THE TIMING OF THE WEDNESDAY FRONT. THE LATEST NAM SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WOULD SUGGEST THAT ALL AREAS WOULD CONTINUE TO WARM
THROUGH 21Z ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL HAVE SHIFTED TO THE NORTH FROM DEL
RIO TO GEORGETOWN BY THEN. THE EARLY ONSET OF THE FRONT AND THE WARM
CONDITIONS THAT THE FRONT ENCOUNTERS MEANS THAT MORE FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS WILL BE IN ORDER (DISCUSSED BELOW).
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1207 AM CST THU JAN 15 2026
FRIDAY EVENING SHOULD SEE A COOLING ON PAR WITH THE FRONT THAT JUST
WENT THROUGH THE AREA, AND WIND WINDS PERHAPS NOT AS STRONG.
SATURDAY MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES COULD LOOK SIMILAR TO THOSE THIS
MORNING OVER NORTHERN COUNTIES, BUT SHOULD BE LESS AFFECTED BY THE
FRONT OVER SOUTHERN COUNTIES. HOWEVER, THE TROUGH OVERHEAD GETS
REINFORCED INSTEAD OF PUSHING EAST LATER IN THE DAY SATURDAY.
SURFACE WINDS LIGHTEN UP OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY, BUT GET A
MIDDAY BOOST AS THE SECOND ROUND OF ENERGY ALOFT DEEPENS/SHARPENS
THE TROUGH OVER TX. ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON DUE BREEZY WINDS AND
VERY LOW HUMIDITIES. THE LATEST GFS HINTS AT SOME CLOUDS AND
LIGHT PRECIP CLIPPING THROUGH CENTRAL TX LATE SATURDAY, BUT ONLY
VERY BRIEFLY. SATURDAY NIGHT THE COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE MUCH
MORE THOROUGH, AND OUR FIRST WIDESPREAD FREEZE OF THE SEASON
APPEARS IMMINENT FOR SUNDAY MORNING. COLDEST TEMPERATURES IN OUR
CWA SHOULD BE AROUND 20 DEGREES, WITH SOME ISOLATED HILL COUNTRY
POCKETS IN THE TEENS POSSIBLE. MOST OF THE MAJOR METRO AREAS
SHOULD EXPECT WHAT WE WOULD CALL A LIGHT FREEZE, GENERALLY AT OR
ABOVE 28 DEGREES.
THE COMPARISON OF THE PAST 1-2 DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS BETWEEN CMC,
GFS, ECM ALL SHOW A GOOD PATTERN AGREEMENT FOR TX FROM SUNDAY
MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. EARLIER RUN TRENDS WERE FOR THAT
SHARPER UPPER TROUGH EARLY SUNDAY LEADING TO A SOLID DRY AND COLD
AIR INTRUSION. THEN, EASING THROUGH LATE MONDAY, THE UPPER PATTERN
RELAXES INTO A BROAD BOWL-SHAPED UPPER TROUGH WITH SOME HEIGHTS
BUILDING INTO THE WEST HALF OF TX. WHAT ALSO APPEARS TO BE SHIFTING
IS THE POTENTIAL WET PATTERN FOR TUESDAY THAT LOOKS TO BE SHIFTING
LATER WITH BETTER RAIN CHANCES NOW TRENDING TOWARD WEDNESDAY. THIS
ADDS CONFIDENCE THAT THE AREA WILL BE ABLE TO RECOVER WARMER
TEMPERATURES BEFORE PRECIPITATION ARRIVES, FURTHER LESSENING THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANY TYPE OF WINTER MIX.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1207 AM CST THU JAN 15 2026
VFR SKC FLYING PREVAILS WITH FEW250, AT TIMES. NORTHWESTERLY TO
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY AT KDRT MID MORNING, THEN
SOUTHWESTERLY TO SOUTHERLY AT THE I-35 SITES EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS SHOULD BE 10 KTS OR LESS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 65 46 72 39 / 0 0 0 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 65 43 73 40 / 0 0 0 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 65 41 72 40 / 0 0 0 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 65 45 67 34 / 0 0 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 71 41 72 39 / 0 0 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 64 48 71 37 / 0 0 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 66 38 73 40 / 0 0 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 66 42 73 40 / 0 0 0 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 63 43 74 42 / 0 0 0 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 66 43 72 44 / 0 0 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 66 41 73 45 / 0 0 0 0
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...18
LONG TERM....18
AVIATION...04
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