190
FXUS64 KEWX 152336 AAA
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
536 PM CST THU JAN 15 2026
..NEW AVIATION (00Z TAFS)
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
- DRY COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND CREATES
ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS OVER PARTS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS AND MOST OF THE LOCAL AREA ON SATURDAY
- A NEW SURGE OF COLD AND DRY AIR SPREADS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH THE COLDEST MORNING IN
STORE FOR SUNDAY MORNING WITH A FREEZE FORECAST FOR ALL OF SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS
- RAIN CHANCES ARE IN STORE FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 107 PM CST THU JAN 15 2026
SUNNY SKIES AND HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S AND EVEN LOWER 70S
ALONG THE RIO GRANDE ARE IN STORE FOR THIS AFTERNOON THANKS TO THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER EAST TEXAS. AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES TO
THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, THE RETURN FLOW TAKES PLACE
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS REMAINS UNTIL THE
NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY ARRIVES ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON. BREEZY NORTHERLY
WINDS ARE FORECAST IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT BUT NOT BEFORE
TEMPERATURES REACH THE MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY
AND LOWER TO MID 70S ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR AND COASTAL PLAINS.
SOME CLOUDS MAY BE AROUND FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
WITH LIGHT WINDS OUT OF THE NORTH WHILE THE DRY AND MODIFIED COLD
AIR SPREADS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE FORECAST TO
RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY TO MID 40S ALONG
THE COASTAL PLAINS.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 107 PM CST THU JAN 15 2026
DRY AND COLD AIR STAYS IN PLACE WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE UPPER
40S AND 50S AREAWIDE. IT IS GOING TO BE VERY DRY WITH DEWPOINT
TEMPERATURES BETWEEN SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES DROP TO THE TEENS AND 20S PERCENTILES MID TO LATE MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH
ARE FORECAST FOR MOST AREAS. THESE TYPES OF WEATHER PARAMETERS
COME CRUCIAL FOR FIRE WEATHER. THAT BEING SAID, ELEVATED TO NEAR-
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO MOST OF SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS ON SATURDAY. A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT IS LIKELY
NEEDED IF THE WEATHER FORECAST CONTINUES TO SHAPE THIS WAY.
IT LOOKS LIKE A POCKET OF VERY DRY AIR PUSHES ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS ON SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING IN COMBINATION
WITH THE COLD IN PLACE TO MAKE FOR THE COLDEST MORNING ACROSS THE
AREA THUS FAR. FORECAST LOWS FOR SUNDAY MORNING RANGE FROM THE
LOWER 20S TO LOWER 30S. A FREEZE IS FORECAST ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY
MORNING TO MAKE TEMPERATURES FEEL-LIKE IN THE TEENS OVER THE HILL
COUNTRY FOR SEVERAL HOURS. A RECOMMENDATION TO ALL DURING THESE
TIMES IS TO TAKE CARE OF THE FOUR P'S: PLANTS, PIPES, PETS, AND
PEOPLE.
TEMPERATURES RECOVER DURING THE DAY WITH HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S. ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT IS FORECAST FOR MONDAY
MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. MOVING FORWARD ON TIME,
LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, CHANCES FOR RAIN BEGIN ACROSS THE
RIO GRANDE AND EXPAND TO THE NORTH AND EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY WITH DRY WEATHER RETURNING ON
THURSDAY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 534 PM CST THU JAN 15 2026
WINDS SHOULD RELAX TO LESS THAN 10 KTS AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING
AND REMAIN SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE NIGHT. A FROPA WILL OCCUR
AROUND EARLY TO MID MORNING FRIDAY, BRINGING A QUICK SHIFT IN
WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. GUSTS UP TO 20-25 KTS ARE EXPECTED ALONG WITH VFR
CEILINGS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 45 71 40 53 / 0 0 0 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 42 73 41 54 / 0 0 0 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 40 71 41 54 / 0 0 0 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 44 65 34 49 / 0 0 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 40 71 38 60 / 0 0 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 47 69 37 52 / 0 0 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 37 73 42 57 / 0 0 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 41 73 41 54 / 0 0 0 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 42 73 42 55 / 0 0 0 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 42 72 44 54 / 0 0 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 40 73 45 56 / 0 0 0 0
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...MMM
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