103
FXUS64 KEWX 190607
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1207 AM CST MON JAN 19 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO MOST AREAS WEDNESDAY, WITH THE HIGHER
RAINFALL AMOUNTS STILL EXPECTED OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS REGION.
- SIGNIFICANT SHIFT IN LATE WEEK STORM SYSTEM HAS INCREASED
CONFIDENCE IN MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES BY THE WEEKEND.
- LOW CONFIDENCE/HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN POTENTIAL WINTER WEATHER
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THIS WEEKEND. STAY TUNED FOR
UPDATES...
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1205 AM CST MON JAN 19 2026
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL SHIFT TO EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY
BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS ON MONDAY. STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING
WILL KEEP THINGS RATHER COLD TONIGHT. AFTER ANOTHER COLD START IN
THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S, EXPECT A MILD AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS BACK
IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. DESPITE THE WARMER TEMPERATURES, A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION MONDAY EVENING, RESULTING IN A
MORE EAST-NORTHEASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE SURFACE FLOW. THIS SHOULD
IN TURN RESULT IN INCREASED UPSLOPE FLOW OVER THE HILL COUNTRY AND
EDWARDS PLATEAU, CONTRIBUTING TO INCREASING CLOUDS MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING.
OUR NEXT STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL BRING A CHANCE AT RAIN GENERALLY
ALONG AND EAST OF I-35 WILL ARRIVE LATE TUESDAY. A WEAK SOUTHERN
STREAM LOW WILL PHASE WITH THE POLAR JET DIVING SOUTH OVER TEXAS,
ALONG WITH A WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME RESULTING IN NUMEROUS CLOUDS
TUESDAY AND COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60.
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1205 AM CST MON JAN 19 2026
THE MID-LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHERN MEXICO WILL BE ABSORBED BY THE LONG
WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US, BUT NOT BEFORE SHOWERS AND PERHAPS
A RUMBLE OF THUNDER MOVES FROM WEST TO EAST ON WEDNESDAY MORNING.
MODELS HAVE BEEN BACK AND FORTH ON PRECIP AMOUNTS, SO WILL OPT FOR
CONSERVATIVE NUMBERS BETWEEN 0.50" AND 0.75" FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS
AND UPWARDS OF 0.25" TO 0.50" OVER THE I-35 CORRIDOR WEDNESDAY. A
BRIEF WARM-UP WILL ENSUE AFTER THE DEPARTURE OF WEDNESDAY'S SYSTEM
AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB BACK INTO THE 60S AND 70S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THIS WEEKEND'S STORM SYSTEM, WHICH COULD
RESULT IN WINTRY WEATHER FOR MOST IF NOT ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
IF CURRENT TRENDS HOLD.
ON FRIDAY, SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RAMP UP AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
ARCTIC COLD FRONT SLATED TO ARRIVE FRIDAY EVENING. A POWERFUL UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL DIVE SOUTH OUT OF THE HUDSON BAY ON FRIDAY, SENDING
THIS ARCTIC FRONT IN OUR DIRECTION. THIS BOUNDARY WILL TEAM UP WITH
AN OVERRUNNING PATTERN AT THE SURFACE WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN STRONG
ISENTROPIC ASCENT BY SATURDAY MORNING AFTER THE FRONT HAS PASSED
THROUGH THE REGION. AN UPPER LOW OVER THE BAJA WILL SLOWLY MAKE ITS
WAY EASTWARD THIS WEEKEND, RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD VERTICAL MOTION
OVER TEXAS.
ONE OF THE BIGGEST TEMPERATURE FLIPS I CAN RECALL SEEING OCCURRED
FROM THE PREVIOUS NBM FOR SATURDAY WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST HIGHS IN
THE 60S TO HIGHS NOW IN THE 40S FOR MOST, AND THIS MAY EVEN BE
RATHER CONSERVATIVE GIVEN THE ARRAY OF GUIDANCE HINTING AT HIGHS IN
THE 30S FOR SATURDAY. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR SATURDAY ARE
TEXTBOOK FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET, AS A STRONG WARM-NOSE IN THE 850-
700MB LAYER WILL RESULT IN A SHALLOW COLD AIR LAYER NEAR THE
SURFACE. ENSEMBLES HAVE STARTED TO JUMP ON BOARD WITH THIS WINTRY
SCENARIO, SO DESPITE THE MASSIVE FLIP IN THE PAST 12-24 HOURS,
CONFIDENCE IS BEGINNING TO INCREASE IN THE CHANCE FOR IMPACTFUL
WINTER WEATHER OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. IT IS
IMPORTANT TO CONTINUE MONITORING AND USING TRUSTED AND OFFICIAL
SOURCES AS THIS FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO EVOLVE AND CHANGE OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE DAYS. OUR CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM TO HIGH IN SIGNIFICANTLY
COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND, WHILE OUR CONFIDENCE IN WINTER
PRECIPITATION TYPES AND AMOUNTS IS LOW AND HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS
WRITING.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1205 AM CST MON JAN 19 2026
VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAINLY LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WIND THROUGH THIS MORNING WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY
WIND EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT SHIFTING WIND FROM THE EAST AFTER SUNSET THEN
EVENTUALLY THE EAST TO NORTHEAST AFTER 06Z TUESDAY. CLEAR SKIES ARE
EXPECTED MONDAY WITH HIGH CLOUDS MOVING OVER THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT.
LOW CLOUDS BUILD ALONG THE RIO GRANDE BRINGING MVFR CEILINGS JUST
BEYOND THE FORECAST PERIOD AND MAY EXTEND TO I-35 TERMINALS ON
TUESDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 66 40 58 51 / 0 0 10 40
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 66 39 58 49 / 0 0 10 40
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 66 41 58 50 / 0 0 10 50
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 62 35 54 47 / 0 0 10 30
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 67 46 55 48 / 0 0 20 10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 64 37 57 48 / 0 0 10 30
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 66 42 58 49 / 0 0 10 40
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 67 40 59 49 / 0 0 10 50
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 68 41 62 53 / 0 0 0 40
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 66 44 58 52 / 0 0 10 40
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 67 46 59 53 / 0 0 10 40
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...MMM
LONG TERM....MMM
AVIATION...27
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