634
FXUS64 KEWX 020623
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1223 AM CST MON FEB 2 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- WARMER, WITH MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FORECAST NEXT WEEK WITH
LOW RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE BY LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1205 AM CST MON FEB 2 2026
TONIGHT WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS EVENINGS
WITH MANY AREAS REMAINING IN THE 30S TO LOW 40S. WE REMAIN UNDER
A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN ALOFT ACROSS THE CONUS WITH RIDGING IN
THE WEST AND DEEP TROUGHING TO OUR EAST. AS A RESULT WE SHOULD SEE
HIGHS IN THE 60S WITH EVEN SOME LOW 70S POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS
THE EASTERN AREAS AS WE WARM SEVERAL DEGREES DESPITE THE INCREASED
CLOUD COVER FROM THE MOISTURE INFLUX THAT SHOULD COME IN
OVERNIGHT. MONDAY EVENING REMAINS VERY MILD WITH MANY AREAS
REMAINING IN THE 50S TO EVEN NEAR 60 FOR LOWS AS THICK CLOUD COVER
STICKS AROUND OVER THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA. WE COULD
ALSO SEE AREAS OF PATCHY TO DENSE FOG AS DEWPOINTS AND TEMPS RISE
TO MEET EACH OTHER THUS INCREASING THE SATURATION POINT. ONCE THIS
FOG LIFTS EARLY TUESDAY WE COULD SEE HIGHS IN THE LOW TO POSSIBLY
MID 70S ESPECIALLY FOR SOUTHERN AREAS.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1205 AM CST MON FEB 2 2026
NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED IN THE LONG TERM FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS.
DEPENDING ON THE SPEED AND THE STRENGTH OF THIS NEXT FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. HI-RES MODELS ARE STARTING TO COME INTO AGREEMENT AND IT
NOW LOOKS LIKE SOME AREAS MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-35
CORRIDOR COULD SEE SHOWERS/ISO T-STORMS AS SOON AS TUESDAY MORNING
PRIOR TO THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE. THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME
VORTICITY IN THE MID LEVELS AS THIS DISTURBANCE PROGRESSES WEST TO
EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN TX, HOWEVER MODELS ARE STILL NOT SHOWING
MUCH AS THE BETTER FORCING AND MOISTURE CONTINUES TO REMAIN ACROSS
OUR FAR EASTERN AREAS (COASTAL PLAINS) AND FURTHER TO THE EAST.
THIS LIKELY WOULD BE OUR BEST SHOT OF RAIN FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST
PERIOD. THE TREND HOWEVER, HAS CONTINUED TO BE ONE OF LESS AND
LESS PRECIP CHANCES AS THE RIDGE CURRENTLY OFF TO OUR WEST LOOKS
TO APPROACH OUR AREA FASTER WHILE AT THE SAME TIME FLATTENS OUT
AND THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES SLIGHTLY MORE ZONAL IN NATURE.
REGARDING COOLER TEMPS, THIS LOOKS TO BE A SOMEWHAT WEAKER FRONT
AND WE ARENT EXPECTING AS MUCH COLD AIR ON THE BACKSIDE AS WE HAVE
SEEN WITH THE PREVIOUS FEW FRONTS ACROSS OUR AREA. HIGHS AND LOWS
RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IN
ADDITION TO REMAINING DRY. WE COULD SEE A REINFORCING ALBEIT BRIEF
SHOT OF COLDER AIR WORK ITS WAY DOWN TO SOUTH CENTRAL TX BEFORE
THE RIDGE OUT WEST TRIES TO WORK ITS WAY SLOWLY EAST FRIDAY. AS WE
APPROACH THE WEEKEND WE COULD SEE HIGHS SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL (MID 70S) AND EVEN SOME SPOTS HIT 80 AS THE RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AND BUILD FURTHER EAST OVER
OUR AREA.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1205 AM CST MON FEB 2 2026
WARMER DEW POINT TEMPERATURES ARE CREEPING UP THE RIO GRANDE,
WHICH SIGNALS THE GROWING TREND MODELS HAVE FOR THE RETURN OF LOW
CLOUDS. THE LOW CLOUD ARRIVAL WILL GET TO DRT RIGHT AROUND
DAYBREAK, SO THIS MEANS THE TEMPERATURES IN THE EARLY MORNING WILL
FALL EFFICIENTLY TO RESULT IN A NEAR 100 PERCENT SURFACE RH. SOME
LIGHT FOG IS OFFERED FOR A FEW HOURS AT DRT, BUT WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO STAY UP A BIT TO KEEP THE VSBY UP A BIT. A SLIGHTLY
LATER ARRIVAL OF CLOUDS IS EXPECTED AT SSF/SAT AND THEN AUS, SO,
UNLIKE AT DRT, THE BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CIGS IS NOT INCLUDED FOR
TODAY AS TEMPERATURES WILL ALREADY BE WARMING BY THE TIME THE
CLOUDS SHOULD ARRIVE. TIME SECTIONS DEPICT A PRETTY DEEP LAYER OF
SATURATION IN THE LOW LEVELS AT LEAST AT SAT/SSF, SO THE CIGS
SHOULD RUN WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON. WE'LL SHOW A LIFTING TO LOW
END VFR IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON, BUT ANY EARLIER TIMING COULD LEAD
TO A MORE RIGID INVERSION AND LOWER CIGS THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
ASSUMING THE SKIES BREAK OUT IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING, CIGS SHOULD REFORM FAIRLY EARLY IN THE NIGHT AND FALL TO
LOWER HEIGHTS AND VSBYS THAN THEY ARE EXPECTED TO DO THIS
MORNING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 69 57 71 43 / 0 10 10 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 69 56 72 42 / 0 10 20 10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 68 56 72 44 / 0 10 10 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 65 54 67 40 / 0 0 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 66 48 72 44 / 0 0 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 68 56 70 40 / 0 10 10 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 65 53 73 45 / 0 10 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 69 56 73 43 / 0 10 10 10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 70 58 74 45 / 0 10 30 20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 66 56 71 47 / 0 10 10 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 68 57 73 48 / 0 10 0 0
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...CJM
LONG TERM....CJM
AVIATION...18
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