776
FXUS64 KEWX 021338
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
738 AM CST MON FEB 2 2026
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
- WARMER, WITH MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FORECAST NEXT WEEK WITH
LOW RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE BY LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 736 AM CST MON FEB 2 2026
PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS AND I-35
CORRIDOR THIS MORNING. MOST LOCATIONS HAVE VISIBILITY BETWEEN ONE
AND FOUR MILES, BUT A FEW PLACES WILL HAVE 1/4 MILE BRIEFLY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1205 AM CST MON FEB 2 2026
TONIGHT WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS EVENINGS
WITH MANY AREAS REMAINING IN THE 30S TO LOW 40S. WE REMAIN UNDER
A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN ALOFT ACROSS THE CONUS WITH RIDGING IN
THE WEST AND DEEP TROUGHING TO OUR EAST. AS A RESULT WE SHOULD SEE
HIGHS IN THE 60S WITH EVEN SOME LOW 70S POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS
THE EASTERN AREAS AS WE WARM SEVERAL DEGREES DESPITE THE INCREASED
CLOUD COVER FROM THE MOISTURE INFLUX THAT SHOULD COME IN
OVERNIGHT. MONDAY EVENING REMAINS VERY MILD WITH MANY AREAS
REMAINING IN THE 50S TO EVEN NEAR 60 FOR LOWS AS THICK CLOUD COVER
STICKS AROUND OVER THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA. WE COULD
ALSO SEE AREAS OF PATCHY TO DENSE FOG AS DEWPOINTS AND TEMPS RISE
TO MEET EACH OTHER THUS INCREASING THE SATURATION POINT. ONCE THIS
FOG LIFTS EARLY TUESDAY WE COULD SEE HIGHS IN THE LOW TO POSSIBLY
MID 70S ESPECIALLY FOR SOUTHERN AREAS.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1205 AM CST MON FEB 2 2026
NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED IN THE LONG TERM FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS.
DEPENDING ON THE SPEED AND THE STRENGTH OF THIS NEXT FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. HI-RES MODELS ARE STARTING TO COME INTO AGREEMENT AND IT
NOW LOOKS LIKE SOME AREAS MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-35
CORRIDOR COULD SEE SHOWERS/ISO T-STORMS AS SOON AS TUESDAY MORNING
PRIOR TO THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE. THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME
VORTICITY IN THE MID LEVELS AS THIS DISTURBANCE PROGRESSES WEST TO
EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN TX, HOWEVER MODELS ARE STILL NOT SHOWING
MUCH AS THE BETTER FORCING AND MOISTURE CONTINUES TO REMAIN ACROSS
OUR FAR EASTERN AREAS (COASTAL PLAINS) AND FURTHER TO THE EAST.
THIS LIKELY WOULD BE OUR BEST SHOT OF RAIN FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST
PERIOD. THE TREND HOWEVER, HAS CONTINUED TO BE ONE OF LESS AND
LESS PRECIP CHANCES AS THE RIDGE CURRENTLY OFF TO OUR WEST LOOKS
TO APPROACH OUR AREA FASTER WHILE AT THE SAME TIME FLATTENS OUT
AND THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES SLIGHTLY MORE ZONAL IN NATURE.
REGARDING COOLER TEMPS, THIS LOOKS TO BE A SOMEWHAT WEAKER FRONT
AND WE ARENT EXPECTING AS MUCH COLD AIR ON THE BACKSIDE AS WE HAVE
SEEN WITH THE PREVIOUS FEW FRONTS ACROSS OUR AREA. HIGHS AND LOWS
RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IN
ADDITION TO REMAINING DRY. WE COULD SEE A REINFORCING ALBEIT BRIEF
SHOT OF COLDER AIR WORK ITS WAY DOWN TO SOUTH CENTRAL TX BEFORE
THE RIDGE OUT WEST TRIES TO WORK ITS WAY SLOWLY EAST FRIDAY. AS WE
APPROACH THE WEEKEND WE COULD SEE HIGHS SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL (MID 70S) AND EVEN SOME SPOTS HIT 80 AS THE RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AND BUILD FURTHER EAST OVER
OUR AREA.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 528 AM CST MON FEB 2 2026
LOW CIGS SOUTH OF SSF ARE EXPANDING RAPIDLY, BUT ARE A GOOD BIT
BEHIND SCHEDULE DUE TO HIGH CLOUDS. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE AROUND
DRT AS THE CLOUDS MAY END UP FORMING OVER KECU FIRST. THUS THE
CIG IMPACTS AND TIMING WERE DELAYED/SCALED BACK SOME VERSUS THE
06Z TAF UPDATES. LIGHT WINDS AROUND AUS COULD WARRANT AN ADDITION
OF SOME LOCALIZED FOG FOR AN HOUR OR SO, BUT IT SHOULD BURN OFF
FAST WITH THE LAYER OF LOW CIGS STILL A FEW HOURS AWAY. THERE
SHOULD BE SOME HOURS IN THE AFTERNOON WHERE THE CIGS LIFT TO VFR
OR BURN OFF OUTRIGHT, BUT AN EARLIER AND MORE PESSIMISTIC RETURN
ON LOW CIGS AND PROBABLY FOG WILL AWAIT THE TERMINALS FOR TONIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 69 57 71 43 / 0 10 10 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 69 56 72 42 / 0 10 20 10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 68 56 72 44 / 0 10 10 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 65 54 67 40 / 0 0 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 66 48 72 44 / 0 0 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 68 56 70 40 / 0 10 10 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 65 53 73 45 / 0 10 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 69 56 73 43 / 0 10 10 10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 70 58 74 45 / 0 10 30 20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 66 56 71 47 / 0 10 10 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 68 57 73 48 / 0 10 0 0
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...CJM
LONG TERM....CJM
AVIATION...18
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