184
FXUS64 KEWX 021850
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1250 PM CST MON FEB 2 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- WARMER THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
- LOW RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS.
- BRIEF COOL DOWN THURSDAY THEN WARMER FOR THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CST MON FEB 2 2026
THERE IS A LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE OVER TX THIS AFTERNOON WITH WEAK
TROUGHING OVER THE ROCKIES. THE FLOW IS TURNING ANTICYCLONICALLY
FROM SOUTHWEST, OVER WEST TEXAS, TO NORTHWEST ALONG THE COAST. WATER
VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DRYING IN THE MID-LEVELS. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GULF HAS THE LOW LEVEL FROM THE SOUTHEAST
TO SOUTHWEST. THIS FLOW IS BRINGING A WARMER, MOISTER AIRMASS TO
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. TEMPERATURES ARE 15-20 DEGREES AND DEWPOINTS
ARE 30-35 DEGREES WARMER THAN 24 HOURS AGO. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE ROCKIES WILL MOVE INTO THE PLAINS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY BRINGING
CYCLONIC FLOW TO TX. AT THE SURFACE A COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH NORTH
TX TONIGHT, BUT OUR CWA WILL REMAIN IN SOUTHERLY FLOW. LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN TODAY MAINLY IN THE 50S. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE
(10%) OF STREAMER SHOWERS OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS, BUT WE WILL NOT
INCLUDE ANY MENTION IN THE FORECAST SINCE THE PROBABILITY IS SO
LOW. THERE WILL BE PATCHY FOG ACROSS THIS AREA OVERNIGHT UNTIL MID-
MORNING TUESDAY. SOME FOG COULD BE DENSE, BUT THERE IS TOO MUCH
UNCERTAINTY TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH OUR CWA DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AND MAY GENERATE SOME SHOWERS
OVER THE EXTREME EASTERN PART OF THE AREA. POPS ARE ONLY AROUND 20%.
DESPITE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM FROM
THE MIDDLE 60S TO MIDDLE 70S. BEHIND THE FRONT WINDS WILL TURN TO
THE NORTH AND BRING COOLER AIR. LOWS WEDNESDAY WILL BE 10-15 DEGREES
COOLER THAN TUESDAY.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CST MON FEB 2 2026
COOLER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER IN TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE ABOUT NORMAL FOR EARLY FEBRUARY.
FRIDAY THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTHERLY PART OF
THE COMPASS AND WARM AIR WILL RETURN. TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND
WILL CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 70S ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL
TEXAS. SUNDAY NIGHT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS NM AND THEN
INTO TX MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN. AT THIS TIME,
THE BLENDED MODEL SOLUTION IS ONLY 20% CHANCES FOR SHOWERS, BUT SOME
OF THE INDIVIDUAL MEMBERS SUGGEST CHANCES COULD BE HIGHER. WE WILL
SEE WHICH SIDE ADJUSTS AS WE GET CLOSER IN TIME.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CST MON FEB 2 2026
CLOUD BASES WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT, WITH VFR SET TO RETURN TO THE I-
35 SITES WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON, THEN BEGIN TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND LOWER DURING THE
EVENING HOURS. THIS SHOULD BRING MVFR CIGS BACK TO THE I-35 SITES IN
THE 03-04Z TIME FRAME. WE WILL ALSO KEEP A MENTION OF IFR IN THE
FORECAST DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPS.
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED ENOUGH TO KEEP VSBYS FROM DROPPING
BELOW 4 SM. IFR OR LOW END MVFR CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
ALONG I-35, WITH A COLD FRONT THEN SET TO MOVE IN DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. CIGS WILL IMPROVE AND WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT. OUT WEST AT DRT, VFR CONTINUES
OVERNIGHT, WITH MVFR LOW CLOUDS RETURNING AROUND 10Z. WITH LIGHTER
WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND UPSLOPE FLOW, WE SHOULD SEE A FAIRLY
QUICK TRANSITION TO IFR AROUND SUNRISE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 57 70 42 64 / 10 10 0 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 57 72 42 65 / 10 10 0 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 55 70 43 65 / 10 10 0 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 54 66 39 62 / 0 10 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 48 72 43 70 / 0 0 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 56 70 40 63 / 10 10 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 52 72 44 69 / 10 0 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 56 72 43 66 / 10 10 0 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 58 73 44 64 / 10 30 10 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 57 70 46 67 / 10 0 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 57 73 48 68 / 10 0 0 0
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...PLATT
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page