552
FXUS64 KEWX 030640
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1240 AM CST TUE FEB 3 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- WARMER, WITH MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FORECAST THIS WEEK WITH
LOW RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS.
- BRIEF COOLDOWN THURSDAY BEFORE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
AND INTO THE WEEKEND
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1222 AM CST TUE FEB 3 2026
WE REMAIN UNDER A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN ALOFT ACROSS THE CONUS
WITH ELONGATED RIDGING IN THE WEST AND DEEP TROUGHING TO OUR EAST.
AS A RESULT WE SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE 60S WITH EVEN SOME LOW TO MID
70S POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY FOR SOUTHERN AREAS FOR TODAY. WE COULD ALSO
SEE AREAS OF PATCHY TO DENSE FOG EARLY THIS MORNING AS DEWPOINTS AND
TEMPS RISE TO MEET EACH OTHER THUS INCREASING THE SATURATION POINT.
STILL NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY AS
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS. IT SEEMS LIKE A BROKEN RECORD AT THIS POINT BUT
EVERY NEW MODEL RUN, THE CHANCES FOR PRECIP ACROSS ALL BUT THE
EXTREME EASTERN AREAS OF THE COASTAL PLAINS CONTINUES TO DIMINISH.
ABOUT THE ONLY CHANCE OUR AREA HAS OF SEEING PRECIP IS FROM SOME
STREAMER SHOWERS THAT COULD FORM OUT AHEAD OF THE WEAK COLD FRONT
PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE DAY. AS HAS BEEN
ALLUDED TO IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS, THIS COLD FRONT WILL BRING ABOUT
A SLIGHT COOLDOWN AND A CHANGE OF WIND DIRECTION FOR OUR AREA.
TUESDAY NIGHT COLD AIR CONTINUES TO FUNNEL IN ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THIS FRONT WITH LOWS SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN LAST NIGHTS LOWS
WITH MOST REMAINING IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH MANY REMAINING IN THE LOW TO MID 60S AS WE
REMAIN IN NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW, WHICH IS SEASONABLE FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1222 AM CST TUE FEB 3 2026
WEDNESDAY NIGHT A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH WORKS ITS WAY ACROSS OUR
AREA BRINGING IN MUCH COLDER TEMPS FOR THURSDAY MORNING THAN WE HAVE
SEEN RECENTLY. NOT QUITE BUYING THE LOWER SOLUTIONS SOME MODELS ARE
PRODUCING HOWEVER TEMPS COULD GO CLOSE TO FREEZING ACROSS THE HILL
COUNTRY WITH MID TO UPPER 30S ELSEWHERE. HIGHS AND LOWS RETURN TO
MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS BY THURSDAY AS RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW RESUMES
ACROSS THE REGION. THE RIDGE OUT WEST TRIES TO WORK ITS WAY SLOWLY
EAST BY FRIDAY. AS WE APPROACH THE WEEKEND WE COULD SEE HIGHS
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND EVEN SOME SPOTS HITTING 80 AS THE
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS MOVES DIRECTLY OVER US. THE NBM HAS
OFFICIALLY CAUGHT ON TO THIS AND NOW SHOWS HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOW 80S FOR BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT WE SEE AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH TRY TO MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND
INTO TX BY MONDAY. SEVERAL GLOBAL MODELS ARE DISAGREEING WITH JUST
EXACTLY HOW THIS UNFOLDS AND DUE TO THE CURRENT TRANSIENT PATTERN
WITH EITHER A POSSIBLE REX BLOCK OR AN ELONGATED NEGATIVELY TILTED
OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN FORMING ACROSS THE CONUS, CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW
BEYOND THIS TIMEFRAME.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1222 AM CST TUE FEB 3 2026
MVFR CIGS ARE EXPANDING OVER THE I-35 CORRIDOR AND WILL EVENTUALLY
SPREAD WEST TO DRT TOWARD DAYBREAK. AN ACTIVE LLJ SHOULD HELP
MINIMIZE THE FOG POTENTIAL AND PROMOTE THE STRATUS EXPANSION.
LATER THIS MORNING WITH THE APPROACH OF A FRONT, A SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPS OVER THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AND MOVES EAST TOWARD CENTRAL
TX. THIS SHOULD SHIFT THE WINDS TO W AND SW, AND MIX THE LOWER
CIGS UP TO VFR LEVELS IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON. AFTERWARDS THE
FRONT ARRIVES TO I-35 CLOSER TO 00Z, CLEAR OUT ALL THE LOWER TO
MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND PICKS UP THE WINDS TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS FOR A
FEW HOURS. THE FRONT IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG, AND THE WINDS
COULD FALL BELOW 10 KNOTS JUST OUTSIDE THE 30 HOUR TAF TIME
WINDOW.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 71 43 65 38 / 10 0 0 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 72 43 66 37 / 10 0 0 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 72 44 66 37 / 10 0 0 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 67 40 62 36 / 0 0 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 72 43 71 39 / 0 0 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 70 41 64 36 / 10 0 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 72 44 70 36 / 0 0 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 72 43 66 37 / 10 0 0 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 74 44 66 37 / 20 10 0 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 72 47 67 39 / 0 0 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 74 48 69 40 / 0 0 0 0
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...CJM
LONG TERM....CJM
AVIATION...18
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