131
FXUS64 KEWX 040606
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1205 AM CST WED FEB 4 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- WARMER, WITH MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FORECAST FOR THE REST OF
THE WORK WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AND AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- BRIEF COOLDOWN THURSDAY MORNING WITH SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS THE
HILL COUNTRY AND SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU GETTING TO THE LOWER 30S
- SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN RETURN ON MONDAY ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE,
SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU, AND HILL COUNTRY
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1205 AM CST WED FEB 4 2026
THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THROUGHOUT THE DAY
AND PART OF THE EVENING YESTERDAY (TUESDAY), IS ALONG THE MIDDLE
AND EAST TEXAS COAST AS OF MIDNIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY. IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT, NORTH WINDS ARE FORECAST TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH GUSTY CONDITIONS
RANGING FROM 20 TO 25 MPH. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE
LOWER TO MID 60S ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE
RIO GRANDE UNDER SUNNY SKIES FOR MOST OF THE TIME.
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS OUT OF THE NORTH ARE FORECAST FOR
THURSDAY MORNING WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE HILL COUNTRY TO UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAINS AND RIO GRANDE. AS THE DAY GOES ON, TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO CLIMB INTO THE MID 60S OVER MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS THE
HILL COUNTRY WITH UPPER 60S ELSEWHERE.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1205 AM CST WED FEB 4 2026
A WARMING TREND IS IN STORE FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATES OUR REGION AND AT THE
SURFACE, A RIDGING PATTERN KEEPS THE LOCAL AREA UNDER A SOUTHERLY
FLOW. THIS LIKELY RESULT IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA STARTING ON FRIDAY WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MID 70S FOR
TWO-THIRDS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. BY THE UPCOMING WEEKEND,
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE WARMER WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND
LOWER 80S.
RAIN CHANCES RETURN FOR SOME AREAS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS NEXT
MONDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART
OF MEXICO INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. AT THIS TIME, THERE IS A BIG
DIFFERENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS AS FAR AS THE
PROBABILITY FOR RAIN AND LOCATIONS. THE GFS STAYS DRY WHILE THE
ECMWF BRINGS SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES OVER PARTS OF THE RIO GRANDE,
SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU, AND THE HILL COUNTRY. THE NATIONAL
BLEND MODEL SOLUTION AGREES WITH THE ECMWF AND THE EXTENDED
FORECAST REFLECTS THOSE OUTPUTS. SOME LINGERING SHOWERS COULD LAST
INTO TUESDAY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1205 AM CST WED FEB 4 2026
VFR FLYING CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH ANY CIGS
ABOVE FL035. NORTHERLY WINDS INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO
25 KTS OVERNIGHT INTO MORNING HOURS MOST AREAS, THEN DECREASE TO
LESS THAN 7 KTS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE EXCEPTION BEING KDRT WHERE
WINDS WILL REMAIN UNDER 10 KTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 64 38 68 44 / 0 0 0 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 65 38 67 42 / 0 0 0 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 66 37 67 41 / 0 0 0 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 62 36 67 41 / 0 0 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 71 38 68 39 / 0 0 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 63 36 67 45 / 0 0 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 69 36 67 38 / 0 0 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 66 37 68 42 / 0 0 0 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 65 37 67 42 / 0 0 0 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 67 39 68 44 / 0 0 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 69 40 68 42 / 0 0 0 0
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...04
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