769
FXUS64 KEWX 041825
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1225 PM CST WED FEB 4 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT FREEZES FORECAST THURSDAY MORNING FOR HILL COUNTRY
VALLEYS.
- WARMER WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
- SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN MONDAY AND TUESDAY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CST WED FEB 4 2026
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND GOES-DERIVED ATMOSPHERIC PROFILES SHOW A
MUCH DRIER ATMOSPHERE OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. DEEP-
LAYER NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND
YESTERDAY'S COLD FRONT, SO MODEST COLD AIR ADVECTION TONIGHT WILL
HELP BRING A COOL NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 30S AREA-WIDE. LIGHT
FREEZES ARE FORECAST IN THE HILL COUNTRY VALLEYS THURSDAY MORNING.
COLD-CORE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES MOVES ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL
TEXAS THURSDAY, BRINGING CALMER WINDS AND ANOTHER SEASONABLE
AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CST WED FEB 4 2026
THE LOBE OF POLAR/CANADIAN AIR BRINGING THE SEASONABLY COOL MIDWEEK
WEATHER MOVES OUT OF OUR AREA FRIDAY. IN ITS PLACE, WARM AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
MOVES OVER OUR AREA FRIDAY, FOLLOWED BY WARM MEXICAN PLATEAU AIR
THIS WEEKEND ONCE SOUTHERLY FLOW REESTABLISHES. THE RIDGE PATTERN
SUPPORTS DRY, SUNNY, AND WARM WEATHER BEGINNING FRIDAY AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND 80S.
THESE TEMPERATURES WOULD BE ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL
AVERAGES.
LEADING UP TO THE WEEKEND, AN UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC DISTURBANCE IS
FORECAST TO LINGER AROUND THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND SW US, CAUGHT IN
WEEK STEERING CURRENTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE BROADER RIDGING. AS THE
RIDGE SLOWLY MOVES EAST, THE DISTURBANCE SHOULD EVENTUALLY MOVE
INTO OUR AREA SOMETIME EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK. BASED ON ENSEMBLE
SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS, THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM'S ARRIVAL IS
DEPENDENT ON SYNOPTIC CHANGES OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC THAT DON'T
COME INTO PLACE UNTIL ABOUT SATURDAY, SO THERE LIKELY WON'T BE
MUCH CLARITY IN TIMING UNTIL THEN. THAT SAID, ENSEMBLES SHOW A
GENERAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE DISTURBANCE, SUPPORTING
POSSIBLE RAINS NEXT WEEK. THE LATEST MODEL BLEND DEPICTS
20-PERCENT RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY/TUESDAY, AND THIS
REFLECTS THE LARGE UNCERTAINTY. INCREASED CLOUDINESS AND RAIN
SHOULD MODERATE TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY, BUT OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BROADLY REMAIN WARM.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CST WED FEB 4 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT AREA TAF SITES THROUGH THE CURRENT
FORECAST PERIOD. OCCASIONALLY GUSTY NORTH WINDS ALONG I-35 WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON, THEN GUSTS WILL EASE BETWEEN 23-
00Z. LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS SOME
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. OUT WEST AT DRT,
NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD, WITH WESTERLY
WINDS EXPECTED TO RETURN BEGINNING THURSDAY MORNING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 64 40 69 46 / 0 0 0 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 65 38 69 43 / 0 0 0 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 66 38 68 43 / 0 0 0 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 61 37 67 43 / 0 0 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 70 39 69 39 / 0 0 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 63 37 68 46 / 0 0 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 69 35 68 39 / 0 0 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 66 37 70 43 / 0 0 0 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 64 38 67 43 / 0 0 0 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 67 40 68 46 / 0 0 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 69 40 68 43 / 0 0 0 0
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...TRAN
LONG TERM....TRAN
AVIATION...PLATT
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