183
FXUS64 KEWX 042320
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
520 PM CST WED FEB 4 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT FREEZES FORECAST THURSDAY MORNING FOR HILL COUNTRY
VALLEYS.
- WARMER WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
- SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN MONDAY AND TUESDAY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CST WED FEB 4 2026
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND GOES-DERIVED ATMOSPHERIC PROFILES SHOW A
MUCH DRIER ATMOSPHERE OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. DEEP-
LAYER NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND
YESTERDAY'S COLD FRONT, SO MODEST COLD AIR ADVECTION TONIGHT WILL
HELP BRING A COOL NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 30S AREA-WIDE. LIGHT
FREEZES ARE FORECAST IN THE HILL COUNTRY VALLEYS THURSDAY MORNING.
COLD-CORE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES MOVES ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL
TEXAS THURSDAY, BRINGING CALMER WINDS AND ANOTHER SEASONABLE
AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CST WED FEB 4 2026
THE LOBE OF POLAR/CANADIAN AIR BRINGING THE SEASONABLY COOL MIDWEEK
WEATHER MOVES OUT OF OUR AREA FRIDAY. IN ITS PLACE, WARM AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
MOVES OVER OUR AREA FRIDAY, FOLLOWED BY WARM MEXICAN PLATEAU AIR
THIS WEEKEND ONCE SOUTHERLY FLOW REESTABLISHES. THE RIDGE PATTERN
SUPPORTS DRY, SUNNY, AND WARM WEATHER BEGINNING FRIDAY AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND 80S.
THESE TEMPERATURES WOULD BE ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL
AVERAGES.
LEADING UP TO THE WEEKEND, AN UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC DISTURBANCE IS
FORECAST TO LINGER AROUND THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND SW US, CAUGHT IN
WEEK STEERING CURRENTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE BROADER RIDGING. AS THE
RIDGE SLOWLY MOVES EAST, THE DISTURBANCE SHOULD EVENTUALLY MOVE
INTO OUR AREA SOMETIME EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK. BASED ON ENSEMBLE
SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS, THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM'S ARRIVAL IS
DEPENDENT ON SYNOPTIC CHANGES OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC THAT DON'T
COME INTO PLACE UNTIL ABOUT SATURDAY, SO THERE LIKELY WON'T BE
MUCH CLARITY IN TIMING UNTIL THEN. THAT SAID, ENSEMBLES SHOW A
GENERAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE DISTURBANCE, SUPPORTING
POSSIBLE RAINS NEXT WEEK. THE LATEST MODEL BLEND DEPICTS
20-PERCENT RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY/TUESDAY, AND THIS
REFLECTS THE LARGE UNCERTAINTY. INCREASED CLOUDINESS AND RAIN
SHOULD MODERATE TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY, BUT OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BROADLY REMAIN WARM.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 512 PM CST WED FEB 4 2026
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE. SATELLITE IMAGERY DURING LATE THIS
AFTERNOON SHOWS A REGION OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WITH BASES AROUND
8000 FEET SLIDING SOUTHWARD INTO PORTIONS OF THE HILL COUNTRY AND
THE I-35 CORRIDOR FROM SAN ANTONIO TO THE AUSTIN AND WILLIAMSON
COUNTY METRO AREA. THERE COULD BE SOME VIRGA WITH THESE CLOUDS
BUT NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE GROUND. THESE CLOUDS
ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY AROUND 02/03Z AND WILL RESULT IN A
MOSTLY TO COMPLETELY CLEAR SKY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF
PERIOD. MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS SUBSIDE THIS EVENING AND A LIGHT
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP INTO AND THROUGH THURSDAY
WITH SPEEDS OF AROUND 5 TO 7 KT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 40 69 46 79 / 0 0 0 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 38 69 43 79 / 0 0 0 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 38 68 43 79 / 0 0 0 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 37 67 43 77 / 0 0 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 39 69 39 77 / 0 0 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 37 68 46 78 / 0 0 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 35 68 39 77 / 0 0 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 37 70 43 80 / 0 0 0 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 38 67 43 78 / 0 0 0 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 40 68 46 78 / 0 0 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 40 68 43 78 / 0 0 0 0
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...TRAN
LONG TERM....TRAN
AVIATION...62
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