838
FXUS64 KEWX 051103
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
503 AM CST THU FEB 5 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- SPOTTY LIGHT FREEZES THURSDAY MORNING HILL COUNTRY VALLEYS.
- WARMER WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
- LOW CHANCES OF RAIN LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1207 AM CST THU FEB 5 2026
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING TO THE EAST HAS SENT A REINFORCEMENT OF
COLDER AIR EARLY THIS MORNING MAINTAINING A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE. A FEW LOW LYING/WIND SHELTERED SPOTS MAY SEE TEMPERATURES
NEAR FREEZING AROUND SUNRISE. AS HIGH PRESSURE SINKS TO THE SOUTH
TODAY, A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OFF THE PLATEAU WARMS TEMPERATURES UP TO
5 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES. A COMBINATION OF AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDING OVER OUR AREA ALONG WITH CONTINUED LOWER LEVEL FLOW
OFF THE PLATEAU RESULTS IN A SIGNIFICANT WARMUP ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS
UP TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. A DRY AIRMASS WITH PWS ABOUT 50% OF
SEASONAL AVERAGES MAKES FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1207 AM CST THU FEB 5 2026
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PASSES OVER OUR AREA ON SATURDAY, THEN OFF TO
THE EAST ON SUNDAY RESULTING IN A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. SURFACE
PRESSURES FALL IN THE PLAINS TURN THE LOWER LEVEL FLOW SOUTHERLY.
THESE DEVELOPMENTS CAUSE MOISTURE LEVELS TO INCREASE GOING INTO NEXT
WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE PACIFIC JUST WEST OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER OUR AREA NEXT WEEK WITH
MODELS/ENSEMBLES TRENDING TOWARD A LATE TUESDAY PASSAGE. THIS
PROVIDES THE LIFT FOR SHOWERS AND HAVE MAINTAINED CHANCES FOR LATE
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. HAVE INCREASED THEM A LITTLE AS
CONFIDENCE HAS IMPROVED DUE TO THE TRENDS. LITTLE CHANGE IN LOWER
LEVEL AIRMASS KEEPS TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE AVERAGE THIS WEEKEND
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 503 AM CST THU FEB 5 2026
VFR FLYING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING WITH ONLY
FEW250, AT TIMES. NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS UP TO 9 KTS TREND TO
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY, EXCEPT MOSTLY VARIABLE AT KDRT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 70 45 79 48 / 0 0 0 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 70 44 79 46 / 0 0 0 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 70 43 79 46 / 0 0 0 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 68 43 77 46 / 0 0 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 70 39 77 45 / 0 0 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 69 47 79 47 / 0 0 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 69 39 78 43 / 0 0 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 71 44 80 46 / 0 0 0 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 68 43 79 46 / 0 0 0 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 69 46 79 49 / 0 0 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 70 43 79 48 / 0 0 0 0
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...04
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