263
FXUS64 KEWX 052323
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
523 PM CST THU FEB 5 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- WARMER WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
- LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES OF RAIN LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CST THU FEB 5 2026
A RIDGE ALOFT CURRENTLY OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL SLIDE
SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO END THE WEEK, USHERING A
WARMING TREND AND MAINTAINING BENIGN WEATHER. TONIGHT WON'T BE
NEARLY AS COLD AS LAST NIGHT WITH THE FINAL FRINGES OF CANADIAN AIR
LEAVING THE AREA, BUT LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES COULD SUPPORT
STRONG OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURE CONTRASTS WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER
30S FOR RURAL LOW-LYING AREAS AND MID 40S IN THE URBAN CORES. THE
FIRST BATCH OF WARM PLATEAU AIR MAKES ITS WAY INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL
TEXAS FRIDAY, WHICH WILL MIX IN QUITE READILY UNDER SUNNY AND DRY
CONDITIONS FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S. A WEAK BUT
MOSTLY DRY WESTERLY FLOW FRIDAY IS FORECAST TO DRIVE RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES DOWN TO BELOW 20% FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CST THU FEB 5 2026
SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS AT THE SURFACE ON SATURDAY IN RESPONSE TO
SLIGHT PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS, LEADING TO STEADILY
INCREASING MOISTURE HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY 850-700MB FLOW SUPPORTS CONTINUED ADVECTION OF WARM
PLATEAU AIR OVER OUR AREA, SO HIGHS THIS WEEKEND SHOULD REMAIN IN
THE 70S TO LOW 80S.
EARLY NEXT WEEK, OUR ATTENTION TURNS TO THE SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER
LOW CURRENTLY OFF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE DOING A
DELICATE DANCE WITH TROUGHING OVER THE NORTHERN PACIFIC, WITH
VORTICITY WOBBLING EAST TOWARDS OUR AREA. MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD START STREAMING OVERHEAD SUNDAY,
BUT THE CURRENT MODEL CONSENSUS HOLDS OFF RAIN CHANCES UNTIL ABOUT
LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WHEN THE DISTURBANCE EJECTS ACROSS THE
AREA AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE MOST FAVORED PERIOD FOR RAIN IS
TUESDAY, BUT SOME MODEL SOLUTIONS SLOW THE SYSTEM TO WEDNESDAY.
WHILE THERE IS LARGE SPREAD IN THE TIMING OF THE RAIN, DETERMINISTIC
OUTPUTS SUGGEST THAT THE WINDOW FOR RAIN WILL BE RELATIVELY BRIEF AS
THE SYSTEM MOVES OUT QUICKLY WITH DRY AIR SPREADING BEHIND.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN WARM THROUGH MIDWEEK AS WINDS REMAIN GENERALLY
SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 515 PM CST THU FEB 5 2026
VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS PERSIST UNDER CLEAR SKIES. LIGHT WINDS ARE
EXPECTED, WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY AT OR LESS THAN 8 KT. THE WINDS
TREND LIGHTEST AT NIGHT WHEN DIRECTIONS COULD BECOME VARIABLE.
OTHERWISE, A WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW MAINTAINS ACROSS THE
REGION.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 47 80 48 76 / 0 0 0 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 44 80 45 78 / 0 0 0 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 43 80 46 77 / 0 0 0 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 44 78 45 74 / 0 0 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 40 78 45 79 / 0 0 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 47 80 46 76 / 0 0 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 39 79 44 79 / 0 0 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 44 81 46 78 / 0 0 0 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 43 80 46 77 / 0 0 0 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 45 80 49 78 / 0 0 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 42 80 48 79 / 0 0 0 0
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...TRAN
LONG TERM....TRAN
AVIATION...62
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