281
FXUS64 KEWX 060610
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1210 AM CST FRI FEB 6 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND
- LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES FOR RAIN MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
- DRY AND BACK TO WARM CONDITIONS MID WEEK
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1206 AM CST FRI FEB 6 2026
NORTHWEST TO ZONAL FLOW STAYS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH
SATURDAY. AT THE SURFACE, WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW IS FORECAST TO
PROMOTE HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S AFTER A COOL
START OF THE DAY IN THE 40S OVER MOST AREAS.
A CLEAR NIGHT IS IN STORE FOR TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WITH
WARMER LOWS RANGING FROM THE 40S TO THE LOWER 50S THANKS TO THE
RETURN OF A SURFACE SOUTHERLY FLOW. SUNNY SKIES AND HIGHS IN THE 70S
AND 80S ARE FORECAST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FOR SATURDAY. SOME
MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO PUSH ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE
AND SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS UPPER LEVEL
FLOW STARTS TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AND BRINGS INCREASED MOISTURE
TO THE LOCAL AREA.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1206 AM CST FRI FEB 6 2026
BY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, A WELL ESTABLISHED UPPER LEVEL
FLOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST CONTINUES OVER THE LOCAL AREA AS AN UPPER
LEVEL STORM MOVES OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA. THEN THE STORM TRACKS TO
THE EAST OVER NORTHERN MEXICO ON MONDAY. THE GFS KEEPS A BROAD
CIRCULATION WHILE TRACKING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WHILE THE
ECMWF SOLUTION SHOWS AN OPEN WAVE MOVING ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND THE
REST OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WITH THAT SAID, A
WARM WEEKEND IS IN STORE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA WITH HIGHS
REACHING THE UPPER 70S INTO THE MID 80S ON SATURDAY AND ABOUT 4 TO
6 DEGREES COOLER ON SUNDAY DUE TO CLOUD COVERAGE BUT STILL ABOVE
NORMAL VALUES.
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON UNDER CLOUDY SKIES AND HIGHS RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S, THERE MAY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY ACROSS THE
RIO GRANDE FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP. AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES
INTO TUESDAY MORNING, CHANCES FOR RAIN INCREASE AS THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW MOVES OVER WEST TEXAS AND THEN ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. RAIN
CHANCES COME TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND PART
OF THE EVENING AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TRACKS TO THE EAST.
THERE IS MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE ON HIGHS TO REACH THE 70S ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1206 AM CST FRI FEB 6 2026
VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS CONTINUE UNDER CLEAR SKIES. LIGHT
WINDS ARE EXPECTED, WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY AT OR LESS THAN 7 KT. THE
WINDS TREND LIGHTEST AT NIGHT WHEN DIRECTIONS MAY BECOME VARIABLE AT
TIMES. OTHERWISE, THE FLOW TRENDS FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 81 49 78 51 / 0 0 0 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 81 46 79 48 / 0 0 0 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 80 47 78 48 / 0 0 0 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 78 46 75 49 / 0 0 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 78 46 80 51 / 0 0 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 80 46 78 49 / 0 0 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 79 44 80 48 / 0 0 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 82 46 80 48 / 0 0 0 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 81 46 78 49 / 0 0 0 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 80 50 79 51 / 0 0 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 80 49 80 51 / 0 0 0 0
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...62
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