372
FXUS64 KEWX 071129
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
529 AM CST SAT FEB 7 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TODAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK
- LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES FOR RAIN MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY AND FRIDAY
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1208 AM CST SAT FEB 7 2026
A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY DRIFTS INTO OUR CENTRAL TEXAS COUNTIES EARLY
THIS MORNING, THEN LIFTS BACK NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AS SOUTHERLY
LOWER LEVEL FLOW TAKES HOLD DUE TO SURFACE LOW PRESSURE EMERGING
OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. NO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED. A DRY AIRMASS
LINGERS TODAY WITH LIGHT WINDS MOST AREAS. HOWEVER, SPEEDS OF 10+
MPH ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE AND EDWARDS PLATEAU COULD CREATE ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THERE THIS AFTERNOON. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST LATER TODAY ALLOWING FOR A MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT WHILE MOISTURE SLOWLY INCREASES IN THE SOUTHERLY LOWER
LEVEL FLOW TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. DUE TO A LOWER LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE,
WELL ABOVE AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES CONTINUE, THOUGH HIGHS SUNDAY
WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN TODAY DUE TO CLOUD COVER FROM THE
INCREASED MOISTURE. HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR TODAY, FEBRUARY 7TH
ARE SAFE, BEING IN THE UPPER 80S (I-35 SITES) TO LOWER 90S (DEL
RIO).
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1208 AM CST SAT FEB 7 2026
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE PACIFIC JUST WEST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA/SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER OUR AREA
WITH MODELS/ENSEMBLES FAVORING A LATE TUESDAY PASSAGE. HOWEVER,
THERE REMAIN SLIGHT TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONG THEM IN RECENT RUNS.
THIS FEATURE MAY GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS AS EARLY AS MONDAY, THOUGH
MOST SHOWERS WILL BE LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THOUGH THERE
IS A LACK OF INSTABILITY, SOME SHEAR MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW STORMS. A
COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA LATER
NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND BRINGING SHOWERS WITH SOME INSTABILITY
MAKING FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. AS CAN BE EXPECTED THIS FAR OUT IN
TIME, THERE IS UNCERTAINTY. OTHERWISE, A LOWER LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE
REMAINS IN PLACE KEEPING TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE FEBRUARY AVERAGES
NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 526 AM CST SAT FEB 7 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR ALL AREA TERMINALS THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING. LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS ARE
FORECAST THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING. WIND SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHEAST
IN THE AFTERNOON AND REMAINS THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGH CLOUDS BEGIN TO
PUSH ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE AND SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES OVER
BAJA CALIFORNIA.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 81 50 78 56 / 0 0 0 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 82 47 78 55 / 0 0 0 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 82 47 76 53 / 0 0 0 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 77 49 76 53 / 0 0 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 82 50 74 55 / 0 0 0 10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 79 49 78 56 / 0 0 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 82 47 75 52 / 0 0 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 82 47 77 54 / 0 0 0 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 82 49 78 55 / 0 0 0 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 81 50 76 55 / 0 0 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 82 50 77 55 / 0 0 0 0
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...17
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