687
FXUS64 KEWX 071825
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1225 PM CST SAT FEB 7 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK
- LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES FOR RAIN TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CST SAT FEB 7 2026
A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT HAS SLOWLY PUSHED INTO OUR CENTRAL TEXAS
COUNTIES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, IT SHOULD LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WEAK
WARM FRONT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS SOUTHERLY FLOW TAKES HOLD DUE TO
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE EMERGING OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. WE
DON'T EXPECT ANY IMPACTS FROM THIS. OTHERWISE EXPECT A FAIRLY
QUIET EVENING TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS OVER US. AS
THAT HAPPENS WE SHOULD SEE STRONG UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS OUR
AREA HELPING TO BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND MOISTURE ALLOWING
TEMPS TO REMAIN MILD OVERNIGHT WITH MANY REMAINING IN THE UPPER
40S TO LOW 50S. ADDITIONALLY, THE ONLY MAIN CONCERN WOULD BE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY TO AREAS OF DENSE FOG MAINLY ALONG AND EAST
OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR. SUNDAY WE SEE HIGH TEMPS DIP A BIT DUE TO
THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER OUT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT'S
LOCATED OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA. EVEN WITH THE FILTERED SUNSHINE
HIGHS SHOULD EASILY REACH THE MID TO UPPER 70S. SUNDAY EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULDN'T DROP MUCH DUE TO THE CONTINUED SOUTHERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW AND INCREASING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT WITH MANY
REMAINING IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CST SAT FEB 7 2026
EVENTUALLY THIS SYSTEM MAKES ITS WAY EAST ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND
INTO TEXAS BY MID TO LATE MONDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND EURO HAVE COME
INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT THIS FORECAST CYCLE. HOWEVER, THIS LATEST
RUN HAS DELAYED THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION BY A GOOD 6 HOURS AND IT
NOW LOOKS TO BE NOT UNTIL TUESDAY EVENING THAT WE SEE MORE
WIDESPREAD PRECIP FILL INTO THE AREA. SINCE THIS IS THE FIRST SIGNAL
FROM BOTH GLOBAL MODELS WE HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP THE TIMING OF THE
POPS AS IS UNTIL WE SEE FURTHER CONTINUANCE AND CONSISTENCY IN AND
AMONG THE NEXT FEW MODEL RUNS.
ANOTHER CONFIDENCE NUDGE REGARDING THIS POSSIBLE SLOWDOWN OF OUR
SYSTEM IS MUCH DEEPER AND STRONGER TROUGHING IN THE EAST AS DEPICTED
PER THE RECENT RUNS OF THE AIGFS AND EC-AIFS MODELS. BOTH OF THESE
ARE CONTINUING TO SHOW STRONGER TROUGHING IN THE EAST ALLOWING THE
RIDGE TO REMAIN OVER US AND GET SQUEEZED BY THE DEEP TROUGHING
DEVELOPING IN THE WESTERN CONUS. THE NBM SEEMS TO HAVE ALSO PICKED
UP ON THIS WITH HIGHS THAT WERE FORECAST IN THE 70S JUST YESTERDAY
ARE NOW FORECAST TO BE IN THE LOW TO POSSIBLE MID 80S FOR WEDNESDAY
AND ESPECIALLY THURSDAY. LOOKING AHEAD, UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TRIES TO
REESTABLISH ITSELF BEFORE THE TROUGH LOCATED TO OUR WEST TRIES TO
EJECT A UPPER LEVEL LOW TOWARDS OUR AREA SOMETIME EITHER FRIDAY/SATURDAY.
STAY TUNED AS DETAILS CONTINUE TO BE IRONED OUT.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CST SAT FEB 7 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT TAF PERIOD. WE SHOULD SEE
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT, BUT PROBABLY NOT CEILINGS. WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 10 KTS. AUS CURRENTLY STILL HAS
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS, BUT THEY WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON WHERE THE SAN ANTONIO AND DEL RIO AIRPORTS ARE NOW. WINDS
WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT AND THEN BECOME SOUTHERLY
SUNDAY MORNING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 51 79 55 80 / 0 0 0 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 48 79 54 80 / 0 0 0 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 48 77 53 78 / 0 0 0 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 50 79 54 78 / 0 0 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 50 77 53 79 / 0 10 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 49 78 54 80 / 0 0 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 47 76 51 79 / 0 0 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 48 78 53 80 / 0 0 0 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 49 77 55 80 / 0 0 0 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 51 77 54 78 / 0 0 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 51 77 54 80 / 0 0 0 0
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...CJM
LONG TERM....CJM
AVIATION...05
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