021
FXUS64 KEWX 081311
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
711 AM CST SUN FEB 8 2026
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
- WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TODAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK
- LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES FOR RAIN TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 709 AM CST SUN FEB 8 2026
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR WESTERN COUNTIES. HI-RES
MODELS SHOW THIS CONTINUING FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS, AND WE HAVE
ADDED SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS TO THE FORECAST.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1210 AM CST SUN FEB 8 2026
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL USHER IN AN
INCREASINGLY MOIST SOUTHERLY LOWER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA THAT
WILL LEAD TO LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG, SOME LOCALLY
DENSE EACH MORNING. THE BEST CHANCES FOR FOG WILL BE ALONG AND EAST
OF I-35 EACH MORNING AND ALSO ACROSS THE WINTER GARDEN MONDAY
MORNING. A STAGNANT UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
LINGERING OVERHEAD AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS DRIFTING OUT INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC AND CLOSER TO BAJA CALIFORNIA. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH
MOISTURE AND FORCING FROM A MID LEVEL IMPULSE FOR A FEW SPRINKLES
OVER THE EDWARDS PLATEAU THIS MORNING. THE INCREASING CLOUDS COOL
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES A LITTLE, HOWEVER, THEY WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1210 AM CST SUN FEB 8 2026
MODELS/ENSEMBLES HAVE SHOWN A DELAYING TREND IN THE PASSAGE OF THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY JUST WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE
CONSENSUS NOW SHOWS A TUESDAY NIGHT PASSAGE, THOUGH THIS COULD BE
PUSHED INTO EARLY ON WEDNESDAY AS SOME SHOW. FORCING BY THE TROUGH
SHOULD GENERATE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW A LACK OF INSTABILITY AND WEAK SHEAR SHOULD KEEP
THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF THE FORECAST. IF TRENDS CONTINUE, THEN CHANCES
OF RAIN MAY HAVE TO BE EXTENDED INTO WEDNESDAY. OF NOTE, SOME MODELS
SHOW A WEAK BRIEF FRONTAL INCURSION ON WEDNESDAY AND THIS FEATURE
COULD GENERATE SHOWERS, AS WELL. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TRANSITS THE
AREA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY FOR DRY CONDITIONS. THEN, ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE FRONT BRINGS CHANCES OF RAIN ON
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. HOWEVER, THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY ON THESE
FEATURES. A SOUTHERLY LOWER LEVEL FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD, KEEPING TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE AVERAGE. THERE IS A
POTENTIAL FOR RECORD HIGHS ON THURSDAY FEBRUARY 12TH WITH CURRENT
RECORDS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 516 AM CST SUN FEB 8 2026
PATCHY TO DENSE FOG IS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS THIS
MORNING. AT THIS TIME, CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM ON THESE CONDITIONS
STAYING OUT FOR THE TERMINALS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS
MORNING SHIFT TO THE SOUTH ACROSS MOST AREAS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS. WIND SPEEDS ARE FORECAST TO STAY AROUND 6 TO 10 KNOTS WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 10 TO 16 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 79 55 83 59 / 0 0 0 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 79 53 82 58 / 0 0 0 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 78 52 81 56 / 0 0 0 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 79 53 82 58 / 0 0 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 79 53 83 58 / 10 0 0 10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 79 54 83 59 / 0 0 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 77 50 80 54 / 0 0 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 79 53 82 57 / 0 0 0 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 78 56 81 60 / 0 0 0 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 77 54 80 59 / 0 0 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 79 54 81 59 / 0 0 0 0
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...05
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...17
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