268
FXUS64 KEWX 082342
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
542 PM CST SUN FEB 8 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TODAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK
- LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES FOR RAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT AND AGAIN FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1214 PM CST SUN FEB 8 2026
EXPECT A FAIRLY QUIET EVENING TONIGHT AS WE REMAIN UNDER AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW STILL LOCATED NEAR/OVER THE BAJA
PENINSULA. LOW TEMPS TONIGHT SHOULD REMAIN MILD OVERNIGHT WITH MANY
REMAINING IN THE UPPER 40S TO EVEN SOME MID 50S. ADDITIONALLY, THE
ONLY MAIN CONCERN WOULD BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY TO AREAS OF
DENSE FOG MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR MUCH LIKE WHAT
WE SAW THIS MORNING. EVENTUALLY THIS SYSTEM MAKES ITS WAY EAST
ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND INTO TEXAS BY LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
MORNING, MORE ON THAT IN THE LONG TERM PORTION BELOW. DUE TO THE
DELAYED ONSET OF THIS SYSTEM AND THE ACCOMPANYING PRECIP, HIGHS
MONDAY ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE LOW TO EVEN MID 80S NOW UNDER
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE VERY MILD AS THE
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASES AND MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS THE
AREA, EXPECT TO SEE MANY REMAINING IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1214 PM CST SUN FEB 8 2026
SEVERAL MODELS ARE NOW IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THIS FORECAST CYCLE
WITH THE MUCH SLOWER GFS NOW REMAINING THE OUTLIER. THESE MODELS
ALL SHOW THIS SYSTEM APPROACHING TEXAS BY TUESDAY MORNING. LIKE
THE PREVIOUS COUPLE RUNS, THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN
DELAYED BY A GOOD 6 HOURS AND IT NOW LOOKS TO BE NOT UNTIL TUESDAY
EVENING THAT WE SEE MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP FILL INTO THE AREA
WITH PRECIP NOW LINGERING INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE NBM SEEMS TO
HAVE CAUGHT ON TO THIS AS WELL WHICH NOW SHOWS POPS EXPLICITLY FOR
THIS TIMEFRAME HOWEVER CHANCES HAVE LOWERED SLIGHTLY WITH MANY
AREAS REMAINING UNDER 40 PERCENT. REGARDING HIGHS, THE NBM SEEMS
TO HAVE COME BACK DOWN TO EARTH FOR HIGHS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
IN THE UPPER 70S-WED AND UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S THURSDAY AS CLOUDS
AND PRECIP MAY TAKE LONGER TO GET OUT OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY. AS
THIS UPPER LOW MOVES OUT OF OUR AREA AND OFF TO THE EAST, THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REESTABLISHES ITSELF BY THURSDAY AND INTO
FRIDAY. MOST MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO SHOW STRONGER TROUGHING IN
THE EAST ALLOWING THIS RIDGE TO REMAIN OVER US AND GET SQUEEZED BY
THE DEEP TROUGHING DEVELOPING IN THE WESTERN CONUS. THE TROUGH
LOCATED TO OUR WEST TRIES TO EJECT A UPPER LEVEL LOW TOWARDS OUR
AREA SOMETIME EITHER FRIDAY OR SATURDAY HOWEVER DETAILS REMAIN
UNCERTAIN AS MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT THIS TIME. RIGHT
NOW IT DOES LOOK LIKE A SLIGHT COOL DOWN IN TEMPS THOUGH STILL
WELL ABOVE AVERAGE FOR NEXT WEEKEND WITH LOW RAIN CHANCES PEPPERED
IN. STAY TUNED AS DETAILS REGARDING THIS NEXT SYSTEM CONTINUE TO
COME INTO FOCUS.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 537 PM CST SUN FEB 8 2026
CONTINUING THE PATTERN OF WELL MIXED AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS
PROMOTING DRYNESS AND AIR MOSTLY NOT INFLUENCED BY GULF MOISTURE,
WE'LL CONTINUE TO RUN NO SIGNIFICANT LOW CLOUDS OR FOG AT ALL
LOCATIONS. SOME PATCHY FOG MAY AGAIN GET AS FAR WEST AS GONZALES
OR LA GRANGE. SSW WIND DIRECTIONS ARE COMING IN FOR MORE HOURS
THAN ADVERTISED BY THE MOS WINDS, SO WE'LL FAVOR THE PERSISTENCE
TRENDS WHEN IN DOUBT. MOST WIND SPEEDS SHOULD STAY BELOW 10 KNOTS,
BUT AN OCCASIONAL MIDDAY VARIABLE DIRECTION AND GUST TO 18 KNOTS
OR SO COULD MAKE THE RUNWAY ORIENTATIONS MATTER FOR AN HOUR OR
TWO.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 55 84 59 78 / 0 0 0 10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 54 84 58 77 / 0 0 0 10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 53 82 56 77 / 0 0 0 10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 53 83 58 74 / 0 0 0 10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 53 84 58 75 / 0 0 0 30
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 54 84 58 76 / 0 0 0 10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 50 82 54 76 / 0 0 0 10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 53 84 57 77 / 0 0 0 10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 56 82 59 79 / 0 0 0 10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 55 82 58 76 / 0 0 0 10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 54 83 58 78 / 0 0 0 10
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...CJM
LONG TERM....CJM
AVIATION...18
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