034
FXUS64 KEWX 111741
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1141 AM CST WED FEB 11 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES INTO NEXT WEEK.
- RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL SATURDAY, BUT RAIN AMOUNTS
TRENDING DOWN.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1129 AM CST WED FEB 11 2026
DRY WEATHER RETURNS AS UPPER RIDGING ESTABLISHES BACK OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS TODAY. CLOUDS CONTINUE TO CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON WITH
NORTHERLY WIND AND HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S. WIND BECOMES LIGHT
OVERNIGHT WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING OVER THE AREA AND LOW
CLOUDS BUILDING OVER THE WEST CLOSER TO THURSDAY MORNING. THERE MAY
BE JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT IN OUR FAR
EASTERN COUNTIES, NAMELY KARNES, DEWITT AND LAVACA. SOUTHERLY FLOW
RETURNS FOR THURSDAY WITH A SLIGHT BUMP IN TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
LOW CLOUDS REDEVELOP THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH RELATIVELY WARM
FEBRUARY LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1129 AM CST WED FEB 11 2026
THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE AREA FRIDAY BUT BEGINS TO SHIFT
EAST AS A TROUGH DIGS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN US. MODERATE SOUTHERLY
FLOW CONTINUES LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE AREA THIS DAY WITH WARM
TEMPERATURES FROM THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. THIS TROUGH CONTINUES
ITS PROGRESSION EAST TOWARDS TEXAS AND WILL BRING OUR NEXT CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY DEVELOP AS EARLY AS FRIDAY NIGHT IN OUR
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES BEFORE RAIN CHANCES SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY. MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY AND A STRENGTHENING
LOW LEVEL JUST MAY KICK OFF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS NEAR VAL VERDE
COUNTY FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE, THOUGH MOST
ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE NORTH AND WEST OF OUR CWA DURING THIS TIME.
AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION, THE STORM TRACK STAYING
MOSTLY NORTH OF THE AREA IS HOLDING WHICH WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL
FOR ANY MEANINGFUL RAINFALL. LREF GUIDANCE ONLY INDICATES ABOUT A 20-
30 PERCENT CHANCE FOR A HALF INCH OR GREATER OF RAIN OVER OUR
NORTHERNMOST COUNTIES WITH THIS SYSTEM. DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF
THE FRONT SATURDAY, THERE COULD STILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS, MAINLY IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA. ANY
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOVING EAST OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
BY SATURDAY NIGHT WITH DRY WEATHER RETURNING IN THE LONG TERM AS
RIDGING BUILDS BACK OVER THE AREA. ONLY A SUBTLE DROP IN
TEMPERATURES IS SEEN FOR SUNDAY BEHIND THE PACIFIC FRONT WITH
TEMPERATURES AGAIN INCREASING INTO NEXT WEEK REMAINING ABOVE
SEASONABLE LEVELS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1129 AM CST WED FEB 11 2026
A RATHER TRICKY FORECAST WITH REGARD TO CEILINGS AT SAT AND SSF. WE
SHOULD SEE VFR CEILINGS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY WITH WINDS
REMAINING NORTHEASTERLY AT ABOUT 10 KTS. THIS EVENING, THERE MAY A
BE A SUBTLE SHIFT TO EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS BUT, MOSTLY NORTHEASTERLY
CAN BE EXPECTED AND EVEN LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT. A SCT-
BKN CLOUD DECK WILL DEVELOP AROUND 2K-2.5K FEET AFTER 09Z AT SAT,
SSF, AND DRT. DRT HAS HREF ODDS OF 80% FOR CEILINGS LESS THAN 3K
FEET, WHILE SAT AND SSF HAVE ONLY 20-30% ODDS. AS IT STANDS NOW,
WILL OPT TO JUST USE A SCT LAYER AT THOSE TWO SITES, WITH PREVAILING
BKN025 AT DRT BY 13Z. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO MORE EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY
AFTER 16-18Z THURSDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 74 52 78 59 / 0 0 0 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 75 49 78 58 / 10 0 0 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 75 50 78 58 / 10 0 0 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 70 49 75 57 / 0 0 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 75 54 78 59 / 0 0 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 72 49 78 58 / 0 0 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 76 51 77 56 / 0 0 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 75 49 79 57 / 10 0 0 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 75 51 79 60 / 20 0 0 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 75 53 77 59 / 10 0 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 77 54 78 60 / 10 0 0 0
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...27
LONG TERM....27
AVIATION...MMM
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