174
FXUS64 KEWX 121127
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
527 AM CST THU FEB 12 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK.
- RAIN AND STORMS TO IMPACT THE AREA SATURDAY, BUT FORECAST RAINFALL
AMOUNTS STILL ON THE LOW SIDE.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1242 AM CST THU FEB 12 2026
AN UPPER RIDGE SITS ON A STRAIT N-S AXIS OVER THE CENTER OF TX WITH
THE WEST HALF OF TX PICKING UP A SW FLOW ALOFT. THE RIDGE WILL NOT
SHIFT EAST PARTICULARLY FAST, SO THIS WILL KEEP OUR STABLE AND
WARMER THAN NORMAL PATTERN INTACT THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. THE
FRONT FROM EARLY WEDNESDAY HAS COME TO A HALT AND RETURN FLOW IS
BEGINNING TO SEND POCKETS OF 4 TO 6 KFT CEILINGS NORTHWARD INTO THE
RIO GRANDE PLAINS. THE DEW POINTS REMAIN IN THE LOW 50S OVER PARTS
OF THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND LOWER COASTAL PLAINS, BUT NE WINDS
CONTINUE TO PULL SLIGHTLY DRIER SURFACE AIR SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT.
THUS THE MORNING LOWS SHOULD STAY GENERALLY A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE
THE DEW POINTS THROUGH DAYBREAK AND KEEPING FOG MENTION ONLY A
CONCERN FOR THE SOUTHERNMOST COUNTIES. THE RETURN OF S/SE SURFACE
WINDS SHOULD BE BACK IN FULL SWING BY 18Z TODAY AND THAT COULD LEAVE
THE SKY CONDITIONS FORECAST A BIT TRICKY FOR THIS AFTERNOON IF
SATURATION IS POSSIBLE AT MOST LAYERS BELOW 850 MBS. EITHER WAY,
THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF INTERMITTENT SUN AND A RIDGE ALOFT LEADING
TO WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY SOARING INTO THE MID 70S TO MID 80S.
WITH THIS AMOUNT OF MIXING, A CONTINUED INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY RETURN
FLOW TONIGHT, IT WILL AGAIN BE DIFFICULT TO SATURATE THE LOWEST
LAYER OF AIR FOR FOG TONIGHT. THE DEEP AND WARM MOIST LAYER
CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY, AND ANOTHER PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY COMES
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1242 AM CST THU FEB 12 2026
LATE FRIDAY THE RIDGE OVER TX BEGINS TO MAKE WAY FOR THE NEXT
SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER DISTURBANCE, AND THIS ONE WILL CONTAIN MORE
DYNAMICS AS IT APPROACHES TX. NOCTURNAL WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL
CONTINUE RAMP UP AND BRING ENOUGH DEEP MOISTURE BELOW 850 MBS TO
WARRANT A FORECAST FOR SCATTERED STREAMER SHOWERS AND/OR PATCHY
DRIZZLE.
IN MONITORING THE STORM TRACK TRENDS OF THE DETERMINISTIC RUNS OF
GLOBAL MODELS, THERE IS SOMETHING OF A STABLE TREND WITH THE NEWER
RUNS REVERTING SLIGHTLY BACK TO THE DEEPER TROUGH. THIS WOULD
REINFORCE A NEED TO MONITOR FOR LOW-END THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS. TIMING REMAINS IN LOW CONFIDENCE SO WILL REMAIN IN FAVOR OF
THE AUTOMATED POPULATE OF THE BLEND UNTIL ONE SCENARIO OR ANOTHER
BEGINS TO STAND OUT. THERE IS A SPC MARGINAL (1 OF 5) RISK OF SEVERE
STORMS OVER VAL VERDE COUNTY FOR THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SATURDAY.
ASSUMING THE MODEL CONSENSUS DOESN'T SHIFT MUCH, THE MAIN EVENT
PERIOD APPEARS TO BE DAYTIME SATURDAY, AND IT WOULD BE NO SURPRISE TO
SEE THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA GET PAINTED IN A MARGINAL WHEN THE
NEXT DAY 3 IS PRODUCED.
AS HAS BEEN MESSAGED IN THE PAST COUPLE DISCUSSION, THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH IS COMING THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA WITH THE BEST DYNAMICS
BOUNCING NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY. THIS LEADS TO A LOW EXPECTATION
FOR RAINFALL WITH POTENTIALLY NO RAIN FOR A PART OF THE SOUTHWEST
COUNTIES, AND A DECENT SIGNAL FOR 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH TYPE AMOUNTS OVER
CENTRAL TX. THIS WOULD LEAVE THE SAN ANTONIO AREA ON THE LOWER END
SLIGHTLY, PERHAPS 1 TO 3 TENTHS.
THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW MUCH SHIFT IN TROUGH TIMING
MAY OCCUR BETWEEN NOW AND 00Z SUNDAY, BUT THE MORE RECENT RUNS OF
THE 00Z NAM & GFS WOULD SUGGEST A DE-ESCALATING CONCERN FOR FIRE
WEATHER ISSUES LATE FRIDAY. THAT MAY SHIFT MORE FOCUS ON THE DAYTIME
ON SUNDAY, AS A SLOWER UPPER TROUGH DEPARTURE WOULD PUT THE
DRY AND BREEZIER PERIOD AROUND MIDDAY.
A MORE RELAXED PATTERN FOLLOWS INTO NEXT WEEK, BUT THE CONTINUATION
OF THE WARM AND MOSTLY DRY PATTERN CARRIES OVER THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 523 AM CST THU FEB 12 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL FOR THE I-35 TERMINALS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
FOR KDRT, THERE IS A FEW HOURS BLOCK FROM 14Z TO 17Z THAT CIGS
COULD LOWER TO MVFR. OTHERWISE, LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AT THIS
THIS MORNING WITH A PREVAILING SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE AFTERNOON
WITH SPEEDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 80 60 81 63 / 0 0 0 50
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 81 58 82 63 / 0 0 10 50
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 80 58 81 62 / 0 0 0 40
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 78 57 77 61 / 0 0 0 40
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 80 60 81 62 / 0 0 0 30
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 80 58 79 63 / 0 0 0 40
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 80 56 82 60 / 0 0 0 30
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 81 58 82 62 / 0 0 10 50
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 81 60 82 63 / 0 0 0 30
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 79 60 80 63 / 0 0 0 50
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 80 60 82 64 / 0 0 0 40
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...17
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page