216
FXUS64 KEWX 121811
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1211 PM CST THU FEB 12 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK.
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO IMPACT MOST OF THE AREA SATURDAY
WITH A LEVEL 1 OF 5 RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1136 AM CST THU FEB 12 2026
UPPER RIDGING RESIDES OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH TOMORROW
MORNING, THEN SHIFTS EAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH
DIGS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN US. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BUILD
OVER THE AREA TODAY KEEPING AT LEAST SOME CLOUDINESS OVER THE REGION
WITH WARM HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. LOW CLOUDS RETURN
TONIGHT KEEPING LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. A MIX OF LOW AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL LEAVE MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY
WITH SEASONABLY WARM HIGHS AND BREEZY SOUTHEASTERLY WIND AT TIMES.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH MAY BRING
SHOWERS OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR FAR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES
AS EARLY AS FRIDAY NIGHT. STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN COMBINATION
WITH MLCAPE UP TO 500 J/KG MAY GENERATE STORMS ON THE NOSE OF A LOW
LEVEL JET IN THE WEST, WITH CURRENT HI-RES GUIDANCE SUGGESTING AN
ISOLATED STORM OR TWO OVER VAL VERDE COUNTY TOMORROW EVENING
THOUGH MOST ACTIVITY IS STILL EXPECTED FURTHER NORTH OR WEST OF
OUR AREA DURING THIS TIME. OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING, EXPECT
STREAMER SHOWERS OR PATCHY DRIZZLE AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1136 AM CST THU FEB 12 2026
RECENT GUIDANCE HAS SLOWED THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT SATURDAY
WHICH WILL BE SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE FOR A MARGINAL SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM RISK AS THIS FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
DAY. SPC HIGHLIGHTS A LEVEL 1 OF 5 RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS GENERALLY
FOR THE HILL COUNTRY AND AREAS EAST WITH THE BEST TIMEFRAME IN THE
AFTERNOON WHEN BETTER INSTABILITY BUILDS BACK OVER THE AREA. STORMS
MAY DEVELOP AS A BROKEN LINE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT MOVING WEST TO
EAST AND EXITING THE AREA SOMETIME SATURDAY EVENING. AS FOR
RAINFALL, THE DEEPER DEPICTED TROUGH BRINGS BACK SLIGHTLY HIGHER
PROBABILITIES FOR AT LEAST A HALF INCH OF RAINFALL IN OUR
NORTHEASTERN AREAS. OVERALL THOUGH, TOTALS STILL LOOK GENERALLY
MEAGER WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES TO MISS OUT
ON RAIN COMPLETELY WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM.
DRIER AIR AND BREEZY WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE
FRONT SATURDAY BRINGING CLEARING SKIES FROM WEST TO EAST. FOR
SUNDAY, BREEZY NORTHERLY WIND IS EXPECTED MUCH OF THE DAY BEFORE THE
TROUGH MOVES FURTHER EAST AWAY FROM THE AREA AND RIDGING SETTLES
BACK OVER US. ONLY A FEW DEGREE DROP IN HIGHS IS EXPECTED SUNDAY
WITH A WARMING TREND INTO NEXT WEEK. FORECAST HIGHS FOR THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK ARE BACK IN THE 80S ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1136 AM CST THU FEB 12 2026
SOME PESKY LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE AT SAT AND SSF EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
BUT SHOULD BREAK BETWEEN 19-20Z. VFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY ALONG WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 5-7KTS.
DRT WILL SEE MORE EASTERLY TO EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD WHILE I-35 SITES EXPERIENCE MORE SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. WITH AMPLE MOISTURE IN PLACE, MVFR TO IFR
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP RAPIDLY AFTER 09Z. HREF PROBS OF
CEILINGS LESS THAN 500 FT ARE RATHER HIGH AT SAT AND SSF, AROUND 50-
60% BETWEEN 13-16Z, SO OPTED TO GO WITH A TEMPO GROUP FOR NOW UNTIL
HIGH CONFIDENCE IS REACHED, THEN A PREVAILING GROUP OF LIFR MAY BE
NEEDED AT BOTH SITES. A RETURN TO VFR IS EXPECTED BY LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AT ALL SITES, OUTSIDE OF DRT, WHERE CEILINGS
MAY REMAIN MVFR THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 60 80 63 75 / 0 0 50 90
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 59 81 62 76 / 0 0 50 90
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 58 80 62 76 / 0 0 50 90
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 58 78 62 73 / 0 0 50 90
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 60 80 63 82 / 0 0 40 50
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 59 79 62 74 / 0 0 40 90
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 56 81 60 80 / 0 0 30 60
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 59 81 62 76 / 0 0 50 90
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 61 81 63 76 / 0 0 40 100
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 60 80 63 77 / 0 0 50 70
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 60 81 64 78 / 0 0 40 70
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...27
LONG TERM....27
AVIATION...MMM
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