416
FXUS64 KEWX 131901
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
101 PM CST FRI FEB 13 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER OVER VAL VERDE COUNTY FRIDAY NIGHT
AND FOR ALL OF SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS SATURDAY.
- RAIN AMOUNTS ON THE LOW SIDE.
- ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEST
OF I-35/I-37 SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND MIDDAY SUNDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 100 PM CST FRI FEB 13 2026
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE GREAT BASIN TO SOUTHERN CA
AND A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM TX TO THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS. A
STATIONARY FRONT IS STRETCHED ACROSS TX FROM BEAUMONT TO THE
DALLAS/FORT WORTH AREA TO NEAR AMARILLO. OUR CWA IS IN THE WARM
SECTOR WITH SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS. THE AIRMASS IS WARM AND MOIST
WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND 70S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND
60S. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO/AZ/NM
TONIGHT BRINGING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER TX. AT THE SAME TIME AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT
BRINGING THROUGH WEST TX AS A COLD FRONT. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT. SOME OF THESE COULD
MOVE INTO OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES LATE THIS EVENING AND SPREAD
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OVERNIGHT. THESE FEATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE TO THE EAST SATURDAY. AS THESE SYSTEMS MOVE INTO THE WARM,
MOIST AIRMASS INSTABILITY WILL BE MODERATE, BUT VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR WILL BE 40-50 KTS. THESE CONDITIONS MAY GENERATE SOME STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MOST
LIKELY THREATS. SPC HAS ISSUED A LEVEL 1 OF 5 (MARGINAL) RISK FOR
SEVERE STORMS FOR WESTERN VAL VERDE COUNTY TONIGHT AND NEARLY ALL
OF SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS FOR SATURDAY. THE BEST TIMING FOR STRONG
STORMS WILL DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THE
FRONT SHOULD BE TO OUR EASTERN BORDER BY EARLY EVENING AND DRIER
AIR WILL MOVE IN WITH NORTHERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS SATURDAY
NIGHT.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 100 PM CST FRI FEB 13 2026
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION SUNDAY AND DOMINATE THE
FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. THE WEATHER WILL BE DRY THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. THE FORECAST PROBLEM WILL BE THE TEMPERATURES. BEHIND
THE FRONT LOWS MONDAY WILL BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL, BUT
THAT WILL BE THE LAST TIME FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD. HIGHS MONDAY
WILL CLIMB TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL AND THEN CONTINUE HIGHER INTO THE
MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK. RECORDS ARE SURPRISINGLY HIGH FOR THESE
DAYS AND THE FORECAST MID-80S ARE NOT CLOSE. STILL, IT WILL BE
UNUSUALLY WARM.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 100 PM CST FRI FEB 13 2026
THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH MVFR CEILINGS ALONG PORTIONS OF THE RIO
GRANDE, INCLUDING KDRT. THESE CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR LEVELS BY
AROUND 20Z. ELSEWHERE, VFR CONDITIONS WITH SCT TO BKN MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL TREND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR STORM MAY ENTER VAL VERDE COUNTY THIS EVENING BUT IS
EXPECTED TO QUICKLY DIMINISH WITH LITTLE TO NO IMPACT TO THE
TERMINAL AT KDRT. FROM THE OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING,
ANTICIPATE FOR MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS TO ESTABLISH ACROSS THE AREA.
ADDITIONALLY, THERE SHOULD BE A STEADY UPTICK IN THE CHANCES FOR
SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE I-35 TERMINALS FROM SATURDAY
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. A BROKEN LINE OF STORMS THEN COULD
APPROACH THE 30 HR TAF SITES (KAUS AND KSAT) NEAR THE END OF THE
PERIOD. ADDED PROB30 FOR -TSRA FOR THIS SEGMENT. VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD ALSO RETURN TO THE 30 HR TAF SITES FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL BE STEADY OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WITH WINDS THAT
ARE GUSTY INTO THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE AT TIMES.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 100 PM CST FRI FEB 13 2026
DRY AND BREEZY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHWEST
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SPREAD TO MUCH OF THE AREA SUNDAY. THIS
WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE FOR THE AREA GENERALLY WEST OF I-10 (NORTH OF SAN
ANTONIO) AND I-37. DRIER AIR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE FOR
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK, SO ADDITIONAL ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER DAYS COULD
BE POSSIBLE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 64 75 55 75 / 20 90 30 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 63 75 54 75 / 30 90 30 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 63 76 54 77 / 30 80 20 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 63 73 52 72 / 30 90 20 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 64 82 55 81 / 20 50 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 63 74 55 72 / 20 90 30 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 61 80 53 81 / 20 80 10 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 63 76 54 77 / 30 80 30 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 64 76 56 73 / 20 80 50 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 64 77 56 78 / 30 80 20 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 65 79 56 79 / 30 80 10 0
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...62
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