281
FXUS64 KEWX 132359 AAA
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
559 PM CST FRI FEB 13 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER OVER VAL VERDE COUNTY FRIDAY NIGHT
AND FOR ALL OF SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS SATURDAY.
- RAIN AMOUNTS ON THE LOW SIDE.
- ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEST
OF I-35/I-37 SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND MIDDAY SUNDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 100 PM CST FRI FEB 13 2026
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE GREAT BASIN TO SOUTHERN CA
AND A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM TX TO THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS. A
STATIONARY FRONT IS STRETCHED ACROSS TX FROM BEAUMONT TO THE
DALLAS/FORT WORTH AREA TO NEAR AMARILLO. OUR CWA IS IN THE WARM
SECTOR WITH SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS. THE AIRMASS IS WARM AND MOIST
WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND 70S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND
60S. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO/AZ/NM
TONIGHT BRINGING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER TX. AT THE SAME TIME AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT
BRINGING THROUGH WEST TX AS A COLD FRONT. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT. SOME OF THESE COULD
MOVE INTO OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES LATE THIS EVENING AND SPREAD
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OVERNIGHT. THESE FEATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE TO THE EAST SATURDAY. AS THESE SYSTEMS MOVE INTO THE WARM,
MOIST AIRMASS INSTABILITY WILL BE MODERATE, BUT VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR WILL BE 40-50 KTS. THESE CONDITIONS MAY GENERATE SOME STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MOST
LIKELY THREATS. SPC HAS ISSUED A LEVEL 1 OF 5 (MARGINAL) RISK FOR
SEVERE STORMS FOR WESTERN VAL VERDE COUNTY TONIGHT AND NEARLY ALL
OF SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS FOR SATURDAY. THE BEST TIMING FOR STRONG
STORMS WILL DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THE
FRONT SHOULD BE TO OUR EASTERN BORDER BY EARLY EVENING AND DRIER
AIR WILL MOVE IN WITH NORTHERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS SATURDAY
NIGHT.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 100 PM CST FRI FEB 13 2026
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION SUNDAY AND DOMINATE THE
FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. THE WEATHER WILL BE DRY THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. THE FORECAST PROBLEM WILL BE THE TEMPERATURES. BEHIND
THE FRONT LOWS MONDAY WILL BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL, BUT
THAT WILL BE THE LAST TIME FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD. HIGHS MONDAY
WILL CLIMB TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL AND THEN CONTINUE HIGHER INTO THE
MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK. RECORDS ARE SURPRISINGLY HIGH FOR THESE
DAYS AND THE FORECAST MID-80S ARE NOT CLOSE. STILL, IT WILL BE
UNUSUALLY WARM.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 552 PM CST FRI FEB 13 2026
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE AVIATION FORECASTS.
WE EXPECT TO SEE A RETURN OF MVFR CLOUDS AROUND 06-08Z, WITH IFR
FOLLOWING CLOSER TO 11-12Z. CIGS TREND UPWARD TO MVFR BY MID-
MORNING AS THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS INCREASES DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION A FAIRLY
SHORT WINDOW FOR TSRA ALONG I-35, MAINLY DURING THE 22-01Z PERIOD,
AS A BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THIS LINE, SO WE SHOULD SEE A FAIRLY QUICK
SCOURING OF LOW CLOUDS BEHIND THE FRONT, ALONG WITH WESTERLY
WINDS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 64 75 55 75 / 20 90 30 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 63 75 54 75 / 30 90 30 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 63 76 54 77 / 30 80 20 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 63 73 52 72 / 30 90 20 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 64 82 55 81 / 20 50 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 63 74 55 72 / 20 90 30 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 61 80 53 81 / 20 80 10 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 63 76 54 77 / 30 80 30 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 64 76 56 73 / 20 80 50 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 64 77 56 78 / 30 80 20 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 65 79 56 79 / 30 80 10 0
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...TRAN
LONG TERM....TRAN
AVIATION...PLATT
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