247
FXUS64 KEWX 141818
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1218 PM CST SAT FEB 14 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- LEVEL 1 OF 5 (MARGINAL) RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MOST
OF SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE MAIN THREATS.
- RAIN AMOUNTS ON THE LOW SIDE, MOSTLY LESS THAN AN INCH.
- ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEST
OF I-10/I-37 SUNDAY.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CST SAT FEB 14 2026
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NE TO WEST TX AND A RIDGE AXIS
HAS MOVED TO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE FLOW OVER TX IS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. A COLD FRONT IS STRETCHED ACROSS TX FROM A LOW OVER THE
NORTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU TO THE EASTERN BIG BEND REGION. OUR CWA
IS IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS. THE AIRMASS IS WARM
AND MOIST WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND 70S AND DEWPOINTS A
LITTLE HIGHER THAN 24 HOURS AGO IN THE 60S. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS TX TODAY AND TONIGHT MOVING TO THE
MISSISSIPPI BY SUNDAY MORNING. AT THE SAME TIME THE COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR CWA AND SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY THE
MIDDLE OF THIS EVENING. A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD
OF THE FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU AND
INTO THE HILL COUNTRY. THIS LINE SHOULD BECOME MORE ACTIVE WITH
THE HEATING OF THE DAY AS IT MOVES INTO THE I-35 CORRIDOR. AS
STORMS MOVE INTO THE WARM, MOIST AIRMASS INSTABILITY WILL BE
MODERATE, BUT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL BE 40-50 KTS AS WE SEE ON
THIS MORNING'S DRT SOUNDING. THESE CONDITIONS MAY GENERATE SOME
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE
MOST LIKELY THREATS. SPC HAS ISSUED A LEVEL 1 OF 5 (MARGINAL) RISK
FOR SEVERE STORMS FOR NEARLY ALL OF SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN WITH NORTHERLY
TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS TONIGHT. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER
THE REGION SUNDAY. DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY
WILL BE ABOUT THE SAME AS TODAY DESPITE SUNNY SKIES AS COOLER AIR
MOVES IN. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR SUNDAY NIGHT LEADING TO A
CHILLY START TO MONDAY WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 40S.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CST SAT FEB 14 2026
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK AS IT
DRIFTS SLOWLY TO THE EAST. UPPER FLOW WILL START SOUTHWESTERLY
AND BECOME WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY BY TUESDAY THE WEATHER WILL BE DRY
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THE FORECAST PROBLEM WILL BE THE
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS MONDAY WILL CLIMB TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL AND
THEN CONTINUE HIGHER INTO THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK. RECORDS ARE
SURPRISINGLY HIGH FOR THESE DAYS AND THE FORECAST MID-80S ARE NOT
CLOSE. STILL, IT WILL BE UNUSUALLY WARM. A WEAK PACIFIC COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY. WE DON'T HAVE ANY RAIN
IN THE FORECAST, BUT COOLER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT
BRINGING TEMPERATURES DOWN FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, BUT THEY WILL
STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CST SAT FEB 14 2026
A LINE OF RAIN WITH SOME ISOLATED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER, MUCH OF THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS LOOKS TO MISS OUT ON THE
ACTIVITY, INCLUDING KDRT. A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY
WILL BE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON, WITH LOWEST FLIGHT CONDITIONS IN OR
AROUND THE SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY. WITH ANY STORM CELLS, GREATER
REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY, GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS
ARE POSSIBLE. THE RAIN/STORM ACTIVITY ADVANCES EAST OF THE I-35
TERMINALS BY AROUND 00Z WITH SKIES EXPECTED TO CLEAR THEREAFTER. A
REGION OF SOME LOW CLOUDS COULD RETURN INTO THE KAUS REGION, PERHAPS
EVEN KSAT, NEAR OR AFTER SUNRISE SUNDAY. MODERATE TO BREEZY GUSTY
WINDS TREND FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD WITH DIRECTIONS TURNING
WESTERLY ALONG OR BEHIND THE RAIN/STORM LINE AND THEN NORTHERLY
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING IN WAKE OF THE FRONT. HOWEVER, THERE
MAY BE A BRIEF LULL IN SPEEDS DURING THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT IN
WAKE OF THE RAIN/STORM ACTIVITY AND THE LATE NIGHT PASSAGE OF THE
COLD FRONT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CST SAT FEB 14 2026
DRY AIR WILL MOVE INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL DROP BELOW 30%
WEST OF I-10 (NORTH OF SAN ANTONIO)/I-37 SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL BE BREEZY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON LEADING TO ELEVATED TO
NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 56 74 48 78 / 20 0 0 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 54 73 45 77 / 20 0 0 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 53 75 46 78 / 10 0 0 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 52 71 46 76 / 20 0 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 56 81 49 83 / 0 0 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 54 71 45 76 / 20 0 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 53 78 45 79 / 0 0 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 53 75 45 79 / 20 0 0 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 56 72 48 76 / 50 0 0 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 56 76 49 79 / 10 0 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 56 78 48 79 / 10 0 0 0
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...62
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