360
FXUS64 KEWX 150021
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
621 PM CST SAT FEB 14 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- LEVEL 1 OF 5 (MARGINAL) RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MOST
OF SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE MAIN THREATS.
- RAIN AMOUNTS ON THE LOW SIDE, MOSTLY LESS THAN AN INCH.
- ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEST
OF I-10/I-37 SUNDAY.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CST SAT FEB 14 2026
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NE TO WEST TX AND A RIDGE AXIS
HAS MOVED TO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE FLOW OVER TX IS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. A COLD FRONT IS STRETCHED ACROSS TX FROM A LOW OVER THE
NORTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU TO THE EASTERN BIG BEND REGION. OUR CWA
IS IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS. THE AIRMASS IS WARM
AND MOIST WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND 70S AND DEWPOINTS A
LITTLE HIGHER THAN 24 HOURS AGO IN THE 60S. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS TX TODAY AND TONIGHT MOVING TO THE
MISSISSIPPI BY SUNDAY MORNING. AT THE SAME TIME THE COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR CWA AND SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY THE
MIDDLE OF THIS EVENING. A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD
OF THE FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU AND
INTO THE HILL COUNTRY. THIS LINE SHOULD BECOME MORE ACTIVE WITH
THE HEATING OF THE DAY AS IT MOVES INTO THE I-35 CORRIDOR. AS
STORMS MOVE INTO THE WARM, MOIST AIRMASS INSTABILITY WILL BE
MODERATE, BUT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL BE 40-50 KTS AS WE SEE ON
THIS MORNING'S DRT SOUNDING. THESE CONDITIONS MAY GENERATE SOME
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE
MOST LIKELY THREATS. SPC HAS ISSUED A LEVEL 1 OF 5 (MARGINAL) RISK
FOR SEVERE STORMS FOR NEARLY ALL OF SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN WITH NORTHERLY
TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS TONIGHT. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER
THE REGION SUNDAY. DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY
WILL BE ABOUT THE SAME AS TODAY DESPITE SUNNY SKIES AS COOLER AIR
MOVES IN. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR SUNDAY NIGHT LEADING TO A
CHILLY START TO MONDAY WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 40S.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CST SAT FEB 14 2026
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK AS IT
DRIFTS SLOWLY TO THE EAST. UPPER FLOW WILL START SOUTHWESTERLY
AND BECOME WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY BY TUESDAY THE WEATHER WILL BE DRY
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THE FORECAST PROBLEM WILL BE THE
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS MONDAY WILL CLIMB TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL AND
THEN CONTINUE HIGHER INTO THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK. RECORDS ARE
SURPRISINGLY HIGH FOR THESE DAYS AND THE FORECAST MID-80S ARE NOT
CLOSE. STILL, IT WILL BE UNUSUALLY WARM. A WEAK PACIFIC COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY. WE DON'T HAVE ANY RAIN
IN THE FORECAST, BUT COOLER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT
BRINGING TEMPERATURES DOWN FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, BUT THEY WILL
STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 608 PM CST SAT FEB 14 2026
ANY LINGERING SHOWERS HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR AND
SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR THROUGH SUNSET. WINDS MAY BRIEFLY GO
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AROUND SUNSET, BUT SHOULD TREND WEST AND
EVENTUALLY NORTHWEST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. SOME BRIEF LOW CLOUDS
MAY MOVE INTO AUS LATE TOMORROW MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. FOR
NOW, WE WILL KEEP VFR IN THE FORECAST, BUT CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR
THE POSSIBILITY OF MVFR CIGS. WE WILL ALSO KEEP GUSTY NORTHWEST
TO NORTH WINDS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON, WITH WINDS
EASING AROUND SUNSET SUNDAY. OUT WEST AT DRT, GUSTY WEST WINDS
SHOULD EASE AROUND 01Z AND REMAIN FROM THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT.
SOME GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE ALSO ANTICIPATED AT DRT BUT SPEEDS
SHOULD BE A LITTLE LOWER THAN SITES ALONG I-35.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 71 56 74 48 / 70 20 0 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 74 54 73 45 / 70 20 0 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 74 53 75 46 / 60 10 0 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 67 52 71 46 / 90 10 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 81 56 81 49 / 20 0 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 69 54 71 45 / 80 20 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 76 53 78 45 / 60 0 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 76 53 75 45 / 70 10 0 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 74 56 72 48 / 80 40 0 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 73 56 76 49 / 70 0 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 78 56 78 48 / 50 10 0 0
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...TRAN
LONG TERM....TRAN
AVIATION...PLATT
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