850
FXUS64 KEWX 150606
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1206 AM CST SUN FEB 15 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR THE SOUTHERN
EDWARDS PLATEAU AND RIO GRANDE PLAINS SUNDAY.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE
WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1206 AM CST SUN FEB 15 2026
DRIER AIR IS NOW SPREADING ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS AS SATURDAY'S
RAINMAKER LEAVES THE AREA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE
OVER THE AREA TODAY, HELPING TO BRING A BREEZY NORTH WIND THROUGHOUT
THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
RELAXES. SUSTAINED WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT AT 15-20 MPH FOR
MOST OF THE AREA WITH GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING BEFORE
SUBSIDING IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS TODAY RANGE FROM NEAR 70 NORTH OF
I-10 TO THE LOW 80S IN THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES.
DEEP LAYER RIDGING WILL BECOME BETTER ESTABLISHED OVER OUR AREA
MONDAY, BRINGING MUCH MORE SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES EARLY MONDAY
MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S. THOSE CONDITIONS WON'T LAST
FOR LONG. A SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD QUICKLY RETURN IN
RESPONSE TO PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. HIGHS MONDAY
WILL BE BACK IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1206 AM CST SUN FEB 15 2026
OVER THE COURSE OF THE WEEK, THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF OUR AREA
SHOULD GRADUALLY MOVE EAST AND FLATTEN OUT. WHILE THIS ALLOWS WEST-
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE UPPER-LEVELS, MOISTURE WILL BE LARGELY
ABSENT FROM THIS FLOW SO DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL. UNDERNEATH,
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE MID- TO LOW-LEVELS WILL REPEATEDLY CYCLE
WARM MEXICAN PLATEAU AIR OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS, LEADING TO AN
UNSEASONABLY WARM MIDWEEK PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-80S TO LOW-
90S. THESE VALUES ARE ABOUT 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE THE AVERAGE FOR
LATE FEBRUARY. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE MID 50S TO
LOW 60S MIDWEEK.
ONE OR MORE DRY FRONTS WILL MOVE THROUGH OR MAKE A GLANCING PASS OF
SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS DURING THE WEEK AS SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
ROTATE ABOUT BROADER TROUGHING ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THE
FIRST FRONT ON WEDNESDAY LACKS MUCH NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT BEHIND IT,
SO ITS IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER SHOULD BE MINIMAL. A SECOND FRONT LATER
IN THE WEEK ON FRIDAY HAS BEEN ADVERTISED ON ENSEMBLES FOR SOME TIME
AND MAY MODERATE TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WITH THE AID OF BRIEF
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AT 850MB. THIS SHAVES OFF A FEW DEGREES IN THE
FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEKEND WITH HIGHS LOWER BUT STILL REMAINING ABOVE-
AVERAGE IN THE 70S. THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE AND ML-DRIVEN GLOBAL
MODELS HINT AT A LOW CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN NEXT WEEKEND ASSOCIATED
WITH THAT SECOND FRONT, BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO HIGHLIGHT THIS
IN THE GRIDDED FORECAST.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1206 AM CST SUN FEB 15 2026
VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
OVER MOST AREAS. THE EXCEPTIONS BEING PATCHES OF FG/BR WITH VSBYS
RANGING FROM VLIFR TO MVFR DUE TO LIGHT WINDS EARLY IN THE OVERNIGHT
AND MVFR LEVEL WRAPAROUND CLOUDS SUNDAY OVER CENTRAL TEXAS AND KAUS.
THERE IS A POTENTIAL OF REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS BY MONDAY MORNING, THOUGH
WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 16/12Z. LIGHT WINDS BECOME NORTHWESTERLY
AT 10 TO 19 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 28 KTS OVERNIGHT, THEN NORTHERLY IN
THE AFTERNOON, THEN BECOME LIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1206 AM CST SUN FEB 15 2026
BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AS DRY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF YESTERDAY'S STORM
SYSTEM. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WEST OF I-10 (NORTH OF SAN
ANTONIO)/I-37 WILL DROP BELOW 30 PERCENT WITH SUSTAINED 20 FT WINDS
OF 10-15 MPH ALONG THE RIO GRANDE AND ALONG HILL COUNTRY RIDGELINES,
SUPPORTING ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. WINDS
WEAKEN SUNDAY EVENING AND SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS MONDAY. DRIER AIR
AND UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF
THE WEEK, SO ADDITIONAL ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER DAYS ARE POSSIBLE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 73 49 78 54 / 0 0 0 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 74 46 78 51 / 0 0 0 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 75 46 78 51 / 0 0 0 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 71 46 76 52 / 0 0 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 81 49 83 54 / 0 0 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 71 46 76 52 / 0 0 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 78 45 79 49 / 0 0 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 75 46 79 51 / 0 0 0 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 73 47 76 53 / 0 0 0 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 76 49 79 54 / 0 0 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 78 49 79 54 / 0 0 0 0
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...TRAN
LONG TERM....TRAN
AVIATION...04
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