856
FXUS64 KEWX 151823
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1223 PM CST SUN FEB 15 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CST SUN FEB 15 2026
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS BUILDING OVER TX BRINGING NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW. SURFACE WINDS ARE FROM THE NORTH-NORTHWEST BRINGING COOLER
AND MUCH DRIER AIR. TEMPERATURES ARE 2-5 DEGREES LOWER THAN 24
HOURS AGO. DEWPOINTS ARE 15-20 DEGREES LOWER. SURFACE WINDS WILL
DECREASE TONIGHT AND COMBINED WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL RESULT
IN A CHILLY START TO THE NEW WORK WEEK. LOWS MONDAY MORNING WILL
BE MOSTLY IN THE 40S ACROSS OUR CWA. IT'S ALL UPHILL FROM THERE.
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE EAST KEEPING SKIES
MAINLY CLEAR FOR THE SHORT TERM. AT THE SAME TIME THE LOW LEVEL
FLOW WILL TURN AROUND TO THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST. TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CST SUN FEB 15 2026
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL DOMINATE INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS IT
CONTINUES TO DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE EAST. UPPER FLOW WILL TURN FROM
SOUTHWESTERLY TO WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY. THIS WILL KEEP THE WEATHER
DRY THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THE FORECAST PROBLEM WILL BE THE
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE MIDDLE PART
OF THE WEEK. RECORDS ARE SURPRISINGLY HIGH FOR THESE DAYS AND THE
FORECAST MID-80S ARE NOT CLOSE. STILL, IT WILL BE UNUSUALLY WARM.
A PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY. WE DON'T
HAVE ANY RAIN IN THE FORECAST, BUT COOLER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND
THE FRONT BRINGING TEMPERATURES DOWN SLIGHTLY FOR FRIDAY AND MORE
SIGNIFICANTLY FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CST SUN FEB 15 2026
SCATTERED LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS PERSIST INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON IN THE
FAR NORTH-NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION FROM LLANO COUNTY INTO
LEE COUNTY, INCLUDING TO NEAR KAUS. ELSEWHERE, MOSTLY TO COMPLETELY
CLEAR SKIES WILL TREND INTO TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING
FEATURES LOWER FORECAST CONFIDENCE, AS SEVERAL SHORT TERM GUIDANCE
MEMBERS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG, PERHAPS EVEN DENSE FOG, OVER
THE HILL COUNTRY. ANOTHER REGION OF FOG COULD DEVELOP AS WELL OVER
THE COASTAL PLAINS, WITH POSSIBLE CONNECTIONS TO SEA FOG. OTHER
MODEL GUIDANCE DOESN'T SHOW FOG AT ALL. FOR NOW GIVEN THE LOW
CONFIDENCE, WE'LL SHOW SOME SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS AND MINOR
REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY AT THE I-35 TERMINALS. A MODERATE TO GUSTY
WIND CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE SUBSIDE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT. A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW THEN ESTABLISHES ON MONDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 49 78 54 81 / 0 0 0 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 45 77 52 82 / 0 0 0 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 46 78 52 82 / 0 0 0 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 46 76 53 80 / 0 0 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 49 82 55 86 / 0 0 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 45 76 53 80 / 0 0 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 45 79 50 85 / 0 0 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 46 78 52 83 / 0 0 0 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 48 75 53 80 / 0 0 0 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 49 78 54 82 / 0 0 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 49 79 54 84 / 0 0 0 0
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...62
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