587
FXUS64 KEWX 161118
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
518 AM CST MON FEB 16 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1205 AM CST MON FEB 16 2026
WEAK WINDS ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SURFACE HIGH AND NEAR-
SURFACE SATURATION WILL SUPPORT SOME PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING MAINLY
NORTH OF I-10 IN PORTIONS OF THE AUSTIN AREA FROM PRE-DAWN TO ABOUT
9 AM CST. RIDGING WILL PERSIST OVER TEXAS TODAY, SUPPORTING DRY AND
SUNNY WEATHER. SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW ALSO MAKES
ITS RETURN TODAY, SETTING THE STAGE FOR A WARMING TREND THROUGH
MIDWEEK. IT'LL TAKE SOME TIME FOR THOSE WARM WINDS TO FULLY
ESTABLISH, SO HIGHS MONDAY ARE FORECAST TO BE JUST SLIGHTLY HIGHER
THAN SUNDAY'S, IN THE UPPER 70S FOR MOST OF THE CWA TO LOW 80S IN
THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS. BREEZY SOUTHERLY FLOW RAMPS UP TUESDAY IN
RESPONSE TO BROAD CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS, SHIFTING A
LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS AND SUPPORTING
HIGHS IN THE 80S. WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON TUESDAY ARE FORECAST TO
REACH 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH, ESPECIALLY FOR THE HILL
COUNTRY AND ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR. THOSE WINDS SHOULD WEAKEN
TUESDAY EVENING ONCE THE LOW MOVES TOWARDS THE MIDWEST.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1205 AM CST MON FEB 16 2026
THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AND FLATTENS OUT SOME MIDWEEK, BUT
A DRY WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVELS WILL
PERSIST. THE ONLY RESULT OF THIS SHIFT IS LIKELY TO BE SOME EXTRA
CIRRUS WHICH WILL DO LITTLE TO MODERATE THE UNSEASONABLY WARM
MIDWEEK HIGHS. WE CONTINUE TO HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID-80S FOR MOST DURING THIS PERIOD, WITH
THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS POKING INTO THE LOW 90S. CONTINUED SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID-50S TO LOW 60S.
A COOLER AIRMASS WILL BE BUILDING OVER SOUTHWESTERN CANADA DURING
THE WEEK, AND ENSEMBLES SUGGEST THAT A PORTION OF THIS AIR WILL BE
STARTING TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO TEXAS BEHIND A COLD FRONT FRIDAY OR
SATURDAY AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST SLOWLY
SLOSHES EAST. THERE COULD BE SOME RAIN WITH THE FRONT, BUT THIS WILL
DEPEND ON WHETHER A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS WELL-TIMED TO BRING
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE OVER THE FRONT. CHANCES HAVE INCREASED SOMEWHAT
THIS WEEKEND, BUT THE LACK OF DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE SUGGESTS LIKELY
LOWER-END RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND BETTER OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN FARTHER
EAST. ENSEMBLES HAVE ALSO TRENDED COLDER FOR TEMPERATURES OVER THE
WEEKEND BEHIND THE FRONT, THOUGH THE BULK OF THE MODELED TEMPERATURE
DISTRIBUTION POINTS TOWARDS THOSE TEMPERATURES COOLING TO GENERALLY
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. LONGWAVE PATTERNS SUCH AS THE ONE
FACILITATING THIS CHANGE DON'T TEND TO SHIFT RAPIDLY, SO BEYOND THE
FORECAST PERIOD THERE COULD BE OPPORTUNITIES FOR THE COOL PERIOD
EXTENDING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 518 AM CST MON FEB 16 2026
VFR FLYING CONDITIONS PREVAIL NOW THROUGH THIS EVENING. HOWEVER,
VERY SHALLOW LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT/VRBL WINDS MAY YIELD
BRIEFLY REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS EARLY THIS MORNING. LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE PROFILES AND PROBABILITIES HAVE TRENDED TOWARD LESS
IMPACTS AND WILL GO TEMPOS MVFR VSBYS 13Z-16Z AT THE I-35 SITES.
SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN TODAY BRINGING SOMEWHAT DEEPER MOISTURE FOR
IFR CIGS WITH REDUCED VSBYS OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 77 55 81 61 / 0 0 0 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 77 52 82 59 / 0 0 0 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 78 53 82 59 / 0 0 0 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 76 53 79 58 / 0 0 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 82 54 86 56 / 0 0 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 76 53 80 59 / 0 0 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 80 50 84 54 / 0 0 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 78 52 82 59 / 0 0 0 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 76 54 79 62 / 0 0 0 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 78 54 82 59 / 0 0 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 79 54 83 60 / 0 0 0 0
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...TRAN
LONG TERM....TRAN
AVIATION...04
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