516
FXUS64 KEWX 161901
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
101 PM CST MON FEB 16 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE WORK WEEK,
BUT A CHILLY WEEKEND POSSIBLE.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CST MON FEB 16 2026
AN UPPER RIDGE REMAINS IN CONTROL OVER TX, BUT FALLING HEIGHTS
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL RESULT IN A TIGHTENING SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER WEST AND CENTRAL TX. LOCALLY ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND AROUND DEL RIO AND AREAS NW, BUT
MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE HIGHER RH VALUES WITH DEW POINTS NO LOWER
THAN THE UPPER 40S. MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE MORE ADVANCED INTO THE
HILL COUNTRY, AND THE MOS GUIDANCES ARE FLAGGING THE AREA FOR FOG
POTENTIAL. WE DON'T SEE THE WINDS DECOUPLING FULLY, SO IT WILL
PROBABLY BE MORE OF A LOW CEILING ISSUE AND PERHAPS SOME FOG IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE BREEZIEST DAY LOOKS TO BE SETTING UP FOR
TUESDAY WHEN A SHORTWAVE IN THE BROADER TROUGH TO THE WEST EJECTS
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE HIGH PLAINS SURFACE LOW PRESSES EAST
DURING THE DAY LEAVING MIXING LAYER WINDS TO BECOME A LITTLE MORE
OUT OF THE SW WHICH WILL ADD TO THE WARMING TREND. SOME MID
MORNING GUSTS OVER THE NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY MIGHT PICK UP TO 35
MPH. MORNING CLOUDS COULD KEEP THE HILL COUNTRY HIGHS FROM BEING
IMPACTED BY THE WIND DIRECTION, BUT IF THE CLOUDS CLEAR UP EARLY
IN THE DAY, WE MIGHT NEED TO BUMP ALL AREAS INTO THE 80S TO NEAR
90.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1258 PM CST MON FEB 16 2026
THE UPPER PATTERN OVER TX BECOMES FLATTER MIDWEEK WITH THE
SHALLOW BASE OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH SITTING ROUGHLY OVER THE BORDER
BETWEEN MEXICO AND THE SW CONUS. SHORTWAVES LOOK TO PASS WELL
NORTH OF TX, SO THE IMPACT ON THE SOUTHERLIES LOOK TO BE MORE IN
LINE WITH TYPICAL SPRING-LIKE PERSISTENCE DAYS OF 10-20 MPH WINDS
WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS. A DRY-LINE IS ABLE TO MIX EAST INTO THE
HILL COUNTRY AND RIO GRANDE PLAINS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, BUT THE
MOISTURE ADVANCES BACK NW EACH NIGHT. THERE COULD BE SOME ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS HERE, BUT THE WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF A
DRY-LINE MAY BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE.
BY FRIDAY, THE 12Z GFS INDICATES A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE GETS A
LARGER IMPACT ON TX BY MOVING INTO KS/OK AND BRINGING A PACIFIC
FRONT INTO OUR WESTERN COUNTIES LATE FRIDAY, BUT QUICKLY FOLLOWED
UP BY A STRONGER FRONT EARLY SATURDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY BE THE
MOST ACTIVE PATTERN FOR FIRE WEATHER.
MODEL RUN-TO-RUN TRENDS ON THE POLAR FRONT ARE TURNING MORE IN
FAVOR OF THIS MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN LEADING TO SHARPER COOLING
POTENTIAL OVER THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER, THERE REMAIN SOME STALWARTS
AMONG THE GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HOLDING ONTO THE WARMER AIR.
THUS WILL WAIT ANOTHER DAY BEFORE ATTEMPTING TO OUTGUESS THE MODEL
BLEND.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1134 AM CST MON FEB 16 2026
VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING UNDER CLEAR SKIES
AND A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. THE GUSTS WILL
TREND THE HIGHEST THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE RIO GRANDE, INCLUDING
KDRT. LOW CLOUDS THEN DEVELOP OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH
MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS EXPECTED. SOME MINOR VISIBILITY RESTRICTION
COULD BE POSSIBLE BUT THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT STRATUS
WOULD BE MORE PREFERRED COMPARED TO FOG DEVELOPMENT AS WINDS ARE
LOOKING LESS LIKELY TO BECOME NEAR OR COMPLETELY CALM. CONDITIONS
RETURN TO VFR BY MIDDAY TUESDAY AND WINDS WILL PICK UP TO BREEZY
LEVELS GOING INTO AND THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE GUSTS
AROUND 25 KT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 55 80 61 82 / 0 0 0 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 53 82 59 82 / 0 0 0 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 53 81 58 80 / 0 0 0 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 53 79 57 80 / 0 0 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 55 85 56 84 / 0 0 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 54 80 59 82 / 0 0 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 51 84 55 82 / 0 0 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 53 82 59 82 / 0 0 0 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 54 80 62 81 / 0 0 0 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 55 82 60 81 / 0 0 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 56 84 60 82 / 0 0 0 0
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...18
LONG TERM....18
AVIATION...62
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