417
FXUS64 KEWX 180007
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
607 PM CST TUE FEB 17 2026
..NEW AVIATION (00Z TAFS)
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE WORK WEEK
FOLLOWED BY A COOLER WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY OVER WESTERN COUNTIES; THEN NEAR CRITICAL TO CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA
DUE TO A PAIR OF DRY COLD FRONTS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 112 PM CST TUE FEB 17 2026
A WELL MIXED DAY OF NEAR FULL SUNSHINE IS HELPING TO MAXIMIZE WIND
GUSTS POTENTIAL WITH AREAS OF THE HILL COUNTRY AND I-35 CORRIDOR
REPORTING GUSTS TO 30 MPH. LATE MORNING MIXING OF SOUTHWEST WINDS
FROM ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER HELPED HASTEN THE REMOVAL OF LOW
CLOUDS AND HAS LEAD TO ABOUT A 1 TO 3 DEGREE BUMP IN SOME MAX
TEMPS FOR TODAY WITH NEARLY ALL AREAS EXPECTED TO REACH 80 DEGREES
OR WARMER. A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE MOVING NE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS HAS FUNNELED THESE ELEVATED LOW LEVEL WINDS EAST
FROM WEST TX. THIS PATTERN SHOULD SOFTEN UP AS THE SHORTWAVE
CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY NE BY THIS EVENING. WINDS TONIGHT SHOULD
REVERT BACK TO MORE SSE WINDS AND IN INCREASE IN LOW CLOUDS, BUT
A BETTER DEFINED DRY-LINE WILL TAKE SHAPE OVER THE EDWARDS
PLATEAU LATE TONIGHT. ANOTHER NOT AS STRONG SHORTWAVE PUSHES EAST
ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE INTO OK LATE TONIGHT, AND THIS IMPACT
WILL PUSH MORE WEST WINDS INTO OUR FORECAST AREA IN THE PRE-DAWN
HOURS WEDNESDAY. LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED, BUT THERE COULD BE
SOME LOCALLY ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AS THE DRY-LINE
PUSHES WELL INTO THE HILL COUNTRY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE DRY-
LINE SHOULD RETREAT AGAIN WITH MORE MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS FOR
MOST AREAS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 112 PM CST TUE FEB 17 2026
YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PUSH ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS BRINGS THE DRY-
LINE BACK EAST THURSDAY. AGAIN THESE DAYTIME WINDS SHOULD NOT BE
AS BREEZY AS THOSE OF TODAY. ONCE AGAIN A MOSTLY SUNNY AND WARM
DAY COULD COME WITH SOME LOCALLY ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
FINALLY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT, A STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE
TX/OK PANHANDLES AND BRINGS A PACIFIC FRONT THAT SURGES THROUGH
ALL OUR EASTERN COUNTIES AND BRINGS WIDESPREAD BREEZY AND DRY
CONDITIONS. FUEL MOISTURE OBS AND PROJECTIONS FROM THE TFS COULD
DETERMINE IF THIS FRONT COMES IN AS JUST ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL
OR BE MORE IMPACTFUL FOR SATURDAY. A SLIGHT SLOWING TREND NOTED
IN THE PACIFIC FRONT TIMING COULD MEAN FEWER AREAS IMPACTED LATE
FRIDAY. LOOKING AT THE ENSEMBLE HANDLING OF THE POST-POLAR FRONT
AIR FOR THE WEEKEND, THERE IS A SLIGHT TREND FOR A COLDER SATURDAY
NIGHT. HOWEVER, THIS PATTERN ALOFT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY
PROGRESSIVE RIDGING ALOFT, SO THE COOLING PERIOD WILL BE LIMITED
TO A COUPLE DAYS OF JUST NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO MONDAY. A
GENTLE BROADENING OF THE UPPER RIDGE PATTERN INTO THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK SUGGESTS CONTINUED DRY WEATHER AND A RETURN TO WARMER
THAN NORMAL TEMPS.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 549 PM CST TUE FEB 17 2026
PRIMARY CONCERN REVOLVES AROUND RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF MVFR THEN IFR
CEILINGS AFTER 05-06Z AT AUS, SAT, AND SSF. DURATION OF IFR
CEILINGS IS THE BIGGEST QUESTION, AS HREF GUIDANCE AND SOME LAMP
GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT IFR CEILINGS MAY RISE BACK TO MVFR AFTER
12Z. FOR NOW, HAVE OPTED TO GO IN THIS DIRECTION GIVE THE LATEST
TRENDS. WINDS SHOULD BE MUCH LIGHTER ON WEDNESDAY, BUT REMAIN
SOUTHEASTERLY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 61 82 63 83 / 0 0 0 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 60 82 62 84 / 0 0 0 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 59 80 60 82 / 0 0 0 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 58 80 59 80 / 0 0 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 57 84 58 87 / 0 0 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 60 82 63 82 / 0 0 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 56 81 58 85 / 0 0 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 60 81 61 84 / 0 0 0 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 62 80 65 82 / 0 0 0 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 60 80 61 83 / 0 0 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 60 81 62 84 / 0 0 0 0
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...18
LONG TERM....18
AVIATION...MMM
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