850
FXUS64 KEWX 042344 AAA
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
544 PM CST WED MAR 4 2026
..NEW AVIATION (00Z TAFS)
KEY MESSAGES
- LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING OF ISOLATED STORMS,
MOSTLY WEST OF I-35. A FEW MAY BE STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE.
- UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK WITH DAILY SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES. STRONG TO MARGINALLY
SEVERE STORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE MOST DAYS.
- WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES MOST DAYS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK, BUT COOLER FOR THIS WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1208 PM CST WED MAR 4 2026
THE PRIMARY WEATHER OF INTEREST FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS OVER THE
NEXT TWO DAYS IS THE LOW TO MEDIUM POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS PRIMARILY WEST OF I-35. OVERALL RAIN CHANCES ARE 20 TO
40 PERCENT. THIS MORNING'S 12Z SOUNDING FROM DEL RIO SHOWED A WARMER
CAPPING INVERSION THAN THE 00Z HREF MEMBERS, POSSIBLY LEANING
TOWARDS LOWER STORM COVERAGE, BUT SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE ALSO
SKEWED HIGHER THAN MODELING. SOME OF THAT CAP SHOULD ERODE THIS
AFTERNOON AS A PASSING TROUGH ENCOURAGES SLIGHT LIFTING AND
COOLING OF THE MID- LEVELS, BUT LOCALLY OVERACHIEVING SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL PROBABLY BE REQUIRED FOR STORMS TO BREAK
THROUGH. THAT FOCUSES STORM POTENTIAL MAINLY TO LATE AFTERNOON TO
EVENING. THERE HAS BEEN A SLIGHT UPTICK IN THE HI-RES GUIDANCE
SHOWING A STORM OR TWO DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN HILL COUNTRY OR
RIO GRANDE PLAINS MAINLY AFTER 6 PM THIS EVENING, WITH THE AID OF
THE EVENING SEABREEZE INTERACTING WITH DIFFERENTIAL HEATING NEAR
THE BALCONES ESCARPMENT. SHOULD THIS OCCUR, THESE STORMS WOULD BE
IN A 1500 J/KG MLCAPE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODEST 20 KT EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR. THIS SUPPORTS A MARGINAL SEVERE RISK THIS EVENING, AND THE
SPC IS HIGHLIGHTING A LEVEL 1 OF 5 RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER
BETWEEN THE HILL COUNTRY, SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU, AND RIO GRANDE
PLAINS. THE PRIMARY SEVERE HAZARDS ARE ISOLATED INSTANCES OF
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. WEAK FORCING FAVORS SPARSE
COVERAGE, BUT SLOW STORM MOTIONS AND RELATIVELY HIGH PWAT COULD
DRIVE UP RAINFALL TOTALS IN ISOLATED SPOTS.
EVENING STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN TONIGHT AS FORCING DIMINISHES. HOWEVER,
HUMID AND WARM AIR REMAIN IN PLACE AS SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE. A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION ON THURSDAY
SHOULD HELP INDUCE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPING ALONG THE DRY
LINE MAINLY OVER WEST TEXAS AND OVER HIGHER MEXICAN TERRAIN. THIS
DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY BE WEST OF OUR AREA, BUT SUFFICIENT
POTENTIAL INSTABILITY IS AVAILABLE FOR A STORM TO WANDER INTO THE
RIO GRANDE PLAINS OR SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU THURSDAY EVENING. RAIN
CHANCES WITH THAT ACTIVITY ARE LOWER THAN TODAY'S... ABOUT 20 TO
30 PERCENT.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1208 PM CST WED MAR 4 2026
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT CONTINUES IN PROJECTING STRONG TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND ROCKIES, BIFURCATING INTO A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND A CUT-OFF LOW
DROPPING SOUTHWEST TOWARDS THE BAJA CALIFORNIA. THIS SETS THE STAGE
FOR AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN TO END THE WEEK, CONTINUING INTO NEXT
WEEK.
THE FASTER, EJECTING SHORTWAVE SHOULD SEND A DRYLINE INTO WESTERN
PARTS OF OUR AREA ON FRIDAY, FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT SATURDAY THAT
MAY STALL OUT OVER OUR AREA THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. BOTH OF THESE
FEATURES REPRESENT OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, WITH
THE HIGHEST CHANCES ACCOMPANYING THE MORE WELL-DEFINED COLD FRONT.
MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL FLOW DIRECTED BY THE LAGGING CUT-OFF LOW OVER
TEXAS WILL OVERLAP WITH THESE FEATURES, SUPPLYING THE MOISTURE
SUPPORTING THESE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. AS THE CUT-OFF LOW
SITS OVER THE BAJA CALIFORNIA INTO NEXT WEEK, ADDITIONAL MID LEVEL
IMPULSES SPUN OFF FROM THE LOW SHOULD CONTINUE TRACKING ALONG THE
JET STREAM OVER TEXAS, POTENTIALLY INDUCING MORE FLARE UPS IN
SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG RESIDUAL STATIONARY FRONTAL SURFACE.
EVENTUALLY, THE CUT-OFF LOW SHOULD REJOIN THE JET STREAM AND MOVE
EAST ACROSS TEXAS AS AN OPEN TROUGH, DELIVERING A FINAL ROUND OF
RAIN MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK. THE LONG RANGE GRAND ENSEMBLE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WITH THIS FINAL ROUND PEAK TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT, IN
AGREEMENT WITH DETERMINISTIC AND AI SOLUTIONS. HOWEVER, THESE CUT-
OFF LOW SETUPS ARE NOTORIOUSLY FICKLE, SO EXPECT ADDITIONAL FINE
TUNING OF TIMING OF RAIN CHANCES AND THE DURATION OF THE GENERAL
PERIOD OF ACTIVE WEATHER.
COMPLEXITIES ASIDE, THE GENERAL MESSAGE IS THAT THERE IS A MEDIUM TO
HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR
VARYING PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS FRIDAY INTO MIDWEEK NEXT
WEEK. THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE ROUND IN TERMS OF COVERAGE IS SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY IN TANDEM WITH THE STALLING FRONT. THE LONG RANGE
ENSEMBLE MEAN ACCUMULATED RAINFALL IS AT AN INCH OR GREATER OVER
VIRTUALLY THE ENTIRE CWA THROUGH WEDNESDAY, AND THE ASSOCIATED
CHANCE OF OVER 1 INCH RAINFALL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD HAS RISEN
SOME INTO THE 60 TO 90 PERCENT RANGE. THE LONG FETCH OF MOISTURE
STREAMING INTO THE AREA DURING THIS PERIOD INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY
OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS, AND THE WPC INDICATES A LEVEL 1 OF 4 RISK
FOR RAINFALL CAPABLE OF LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING OVER THE WEEKEND.
MODERATE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS, THOUGH THE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN
IMPACT. ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, THOUGH WEAK COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT,
CLOUDINESS, AND RAIN CHANCES SHOULD COMBINE TO LOWER TEMPERATURES
SOME OVER THE WEEKEND. HIGHS SATURDAY AND MORE LIKELY SUNDAY COULD
BE CLOSER TO SEASONABLE NORMS FOR EARLY MARCH.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 539 PM CST WED MAR 4 2026
GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE NEXT 24-30 HOURS AT ALL TAF SITES. MVFR CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP
AFTER 05Z AT AUS, SAT, AND SSF AND AFTER 09Z AT DRT THIS EVENING.
THERE MAY BE A BRIEF WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR IFR CEILINGS AROUND
SUNRISE TOMORROW MORNING, BUT WITH WINDS REMAINING QUITE STRONG,
EXPECT THAT CEILINGS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 1000 FT. FOR NOW, HAVE KEPT
ANY MENTION OF PRECIP OUT OF THE TAFS AS CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 68 84 67 83 / 20 30 20 70
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 66 85 66 85 / 20 30 20 60
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 66 84 66 83 / 20 30 20 60
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 65 82 66 80 / 30 20 20 80
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 68 87 66 89 / 30 30 30 20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 65 84 65 83 / 30 30 20 70
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 65 87 64 84 / 30 20 30 60
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 66 86 66 85 / 20 30 20 60
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 68 84 67 86 / 10 10 20 30
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 68 85 67 83 / 30 30 30 70
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 68 87 68 84 / 20 20 30 60
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...TRAN
LONG TERM....TRAN
AVIATION...MMM
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