847
FXUS64 KEWX 071726
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1126 AM CST SAT MAR 7 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS; HIGHEST THREAT TO
MAINLY CONCENTRATE ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-10/HWY 90 INTO THIS
EVENING.
- POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH THIS EVENING
- ADDITIONAL RAIN/STORM CHANCES DURING MIDWEEK WITH POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1124 AM CST SAT MAR 7 2026
OVERALL EVOLUTION OF TODAY'S SYSTEM HAS NOT CHANGED FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. WHAT HAS CHANGED IS TIMING AND LOCATION OF SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL. A COLD FRONT IS DIVING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY TODAY AND WILL BRING STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
THE COLD FRONT MENTIONED ABOVE HAS ALREADY MOVED THROUGH THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES OF THE SERVICE AREA DUE TO A STRONGER DRIVING COLD
AIRMASS. TEMPERATURES IN CENTRAL TEXAS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE 40S AND
50S AS OF 10AM AND WILL LIKELY NOT REACH MUCH INTO THE 60S FOR
HIGHS. THE RESULT OF THE STRONG AIRMASS HAS ALLOWED THE COLD FRONT
TO SURGE SOUTHWARDS APPROXIMATELY 3-4 HOURS AHEAD OF SCHEDULE. HI-
RES SOLUTIONS HAVE LATCHED ONTO THIS SOONER TIMING AND NOW SHOW THE
COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE I-35 CORRIDOR BETWEEN NOON AND 3PM
BEFORE REACHING THE COASTAL PLAINS BETWEEN 3PM AND 6PM. THE FRONT IS
THEN ANTICIPATED TO STAGNATE/STALL OVER THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY/COASTAL PLAINS WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THIS STALLED FRONT INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE DIMINISHING AFTER MIDNIGHT.
DESPITE THE EARLIER TIMING, HAZARD POTENTIAL HAVEN'T CHANGED MUCH AS
WE STILL ANTICIPATE SOME THUNDERSTORMS BEING CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
HAIL UP TO 2", DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OF 60 MPH, AND LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL. LOCATION OF THESE HAZARDS HAS SHIFTED SOUTH WITH THE
FASTER TIMING OF THE FRONT.
WITH THE EARLIER TIMING OF THE FRONT, EXPECTATION OF SEVERE WEATHER
FOR THE NORTHERN COUNTIES OF THE HILL COUNTRY AND SOUTHERN EDWARDS
PLATEAU HAS DIMINISHED AS THE FRONT HAS ALREADY MOVED THROUGH THEM
AND STORMS THAT FORM WILL BE ELEVATED. BEING ELEVATED, THE RISK OF
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IS MUCH LOWER HOWEVER, AN ISOLATED STORM CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING UP TO 1" HAIL CAN'T BE FULLY RULED OUT AS OF YET FOR
THOSE AREAS BEHIND THE FRONT.
THE I-35 CORRIDOR WILL BE TRANSITION ZONE OF WHERE WE MIGHT BE ABLE
TO WARM ENOUGH TO GET SOME OF THE BETTER INSTABILITY FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO WORK WITH BEFORE THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. ONCE THE
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THEN SEVERE CONCERNS WILL DIMINISH. OUR
THINKING AND HI-RES MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT, IS THAT THE BETTER
LOCATION FOR SEVERE WEATHER CAPABLE OF MEETING OUR HAZARDS MENTIONED
ABLE WILL GENERALLY BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-10 AND HWY 90. HI-RES
MODELS SHOW THIS ARE HAVING MLCAPE OF 1500 TO 2000 J/KG, AND A
HIGHER MLCAPE VALUE CLOSER TO 2500 OVER MAVERICK COUNTY THIS
AFTERNOON.
SHIFTING TO THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT, PWATS ACROSS THE AREA REMAIN VERY
HIGH FOR EARLY MARCH WITH THE DEL RIO SOUNDING THIS MORNING SHOWING
1.33". THIS AMOUNT OF ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR RAINFALL
TO BE FAIRLY EFFICIENT, AND STORM MOTIONS BRIEFLY BECOME NEARLY
PARALLEL TO THE FRONT WITH TIME. THIS WOULD ALLOW FOR SOME TRAINING
OF STORMS PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS. HI-RES MODEL
CONTINUE TO SHOW THE AREA SEEING GENERALLY LESS THAN 1 INCH WITH
ISOLATED HIGHER TOTALS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES IN AREAS WHERE TRAINING
DEVELOPS.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1124 AM CST SAT MAR 7 2026
THE UPPER LOW THAT HELPED TO SEND OUR COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY WILL
CONTINUE TO CUTOFF OVER WESTERN MEXICO/SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ON
SUNDAY. THE STALLED FRONT IS ANTICIPATED TO MODIFY, BUT COULD ALLOW
FOR ISOLATED RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.
CLOSED OFF LOW RE-INTEGRATES WITH UPPER FLOW BY TUESDAY TO WEDNESDAY
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS WITH THE
MODEL CONSENSUS WHICH KEPT A SCATTERED DEPICTION OF RAIN CHANCES ON
TUESDAY WITH BETTER CHANCES OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ON WEDNESDAY.
THERE REMAINS POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
FOR PORTIONS OF THE HILL COUNTRY AND THE NORTHERN I-35 CORRIDOR ON
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. PWATS CONTINUE TO BE ADVERTISED WELL ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGY FOR EARLY MARCH WHICH MAINTAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.
AS THE UPPER LOW DEPARTS, SO DO OUR RAIN CHANCES FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 526 AM CST SAT MAR 7 2026
A MIX OF MVFR AND VFR CEILINGS ARE SEEN FOR THE START OF THE PERIOD,
BUT KEPT THE TREND OF MVFR CONTINUING THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO
THE AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS TODAY,
REACHING TERMINALS IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON. WIND SHIFTS FROM THE
NORTH TO NORTHEAST BEHIND THIS FEATURE AND MAY INITIALLY BE GUSTY.
THE MAIN UPDATE WITH THIS PACKAGE WAS BUMPING UP THE ARRIVAL OF TSRA
AN HOUR FOR I-35 SITES. MODELS CONTINUE TO FAVOR I-35 TERMINALS
FOR THUNDERSTORMS, THOUGH THEY COULD OCCUR AS FAR WEST AS KDRT.
ANY RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE SHORT-LIVED
WITH MVFR CEILINGS FORECAST TO REDEVELOP TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 55 72 62 83 / 50 30 20 30
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 54 72 60 83 / 60 30 20 30
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 55 71 61 82 / 60 40 20 30
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 52 70 60 80 / 30 20 20 20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 56 68 61 81 / 30 50 30 20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 52 72 60 82 / 50 20 20 30
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 54 71 60 81 / 50 50 40 30
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 55 72 61 83 / 60 40 20 30
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 57 74 63 83 / 70 40 10 30
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 56 71 63 81 / 50 50 40 30
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 58 72 63 83 / 60 50 30 30
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...36
LONG TERM....36
AVIATION...62
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