182
FXUS64 KEWX 081030
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
530 AM CDT SUN MAR 8 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH DAILY
RAIN AND STORM CHANCES. STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
- SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES EXPECTED SUNDAY AND THURSDAY WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1226 AM CST SUN MAR 8 2026
AN UNDER-ACHIEVING STORM EVENT UNFOLDED SATURDAY EVENING WITH ONLY A
FEW REPORTS OF HAIL AND NOTHING OVER 1 INCH THUS FAR. THE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WERE ESPECIALLY DISAPPOINTING WITH RADAR STORM TOTAL
ESTIMATES SUGGESTING ONLY ABOUT 10 TO 15 PERCENT OF THE AREA GOT
AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 1/2 INCH. THE EVENT TOOK AN EARLY TIMEOUT AS OF
THE TIME OF THIS WRITING, BUT THE WINDOW OF RAIN NARRATIVE FOR THIS
CONVECTIVE PERIOD CONTINUES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE
MESOSCALE SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO DEPICT SOME REGENERATING ELEVATED
CONVECTION CLOSER TO DAYBREAK AND RUNNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
ADDITIONAL RAINS, IF YOU'RE LUCKY ENOUGH TO GET ANY, SHOULD
TYPICALLY RUN LESS THAN 1/4 INCH. IN ANY EVENT, A SEASONABLY COOL
AND HUMID DAY SURE BEATS THE HOT AND DUSTY CONDITIONS WE GOT FOR
MUCH OF FEBRUARY.
AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO DISSOLVE TONIGHT, LIGHT RAIN SHOWER CHANCES
AND PERHAPS DRIZZLE REMAINS POSSIBLE UNTIL ALL THE LOW LEVEL WINDS
RUN SOUTHERLY BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. ISOLATED CLAPS OF THUNDER ARE
POSSIBLE, BUT THE REAL ENERGY FROM THIS PATTERN LOOMS WELL WEST OF
TX, BUT ONLY FOR ANOTHER DAY. MONDAYS TEMPERATURES SHOULD RETURN
BACK TO WHAT WAS SEEN IN THE LATTER PART OF LAST WEEK WITH BREEZY
AND HUMID CONDITIONS TO ACCOMPANY.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1226 AM CST SUN MAR 8 2026
THE PART TWO OF THIS WEEK'S STORMY PATTERN COMES TUESDAY WHEN THE
CUT-OFF PORTION OF THE UPPER TROUGH MAKES ITS WAY EAST INTO TX AND
PIVOTS NE TO RE-JOIN THE POLAR WESTERLIES. THE MODEL RUN-TO-RUN
TREND STILL SUGGESTS A WEAKER PATTERN TO SHEAR NORTHWARD, BUT THERE
ARE A FEW CYCLES STILL COMING IN WITH A DEEPER PASSAGE OVER TX. THIS
LEAVES US IN A LOW CONFIDENCE POSITION TO NOT WANT TO GET TOO FAR
AWAY FROM THE BLENDED GUIDANCE, BUT ALSO GIVES US PAUSE ON TALKING
UP A SIGNIFICANT RAIN AND SEVERE WEATHER EVENT. A WEAKER TROUGH
COULD LEAVE THE AREA WITH ANOTHER MEDIOCRE RAIN EVENT, BUT AT LEAST
WITH LESS POTENTIAL FOR STORM SEVERITY. USUALLY THESE TIMING AND
TRACK TRENDS GET RESOLVED AND SUPPORTED BY THE TIME THE MESO-SCALE
RUNS COME INTO THE PICTURE ABOUT A COUPLE DAYS OUT. SOME RAIN
CHANCES MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY ARE PERHAPS ON THE GENEROUS SIDE,
SO MOST FOLKS SHOULD EXPECT LIGHT RAIN AMOUNTS AND LESS IMPACTFUL
WEATHER. THE EVENT SHOULD RAMP UP AS EARLY AS MIDDAY TUESDAY WITH
THE EXPECTATION OF THE HIGHEST IMPACT TO BE ROUGHLY 00Z TO 12Z
WEDNESDAY. WITH THIS EJECTING TROUGH AND TRAILING FRONT TUESDAY
NIGHT, THERE SHOULD AT LEAST BE A MORE ORGANIZED PATTERN FOR A
SQUALL LINE, EVEN IF IT MIGHT BE ON THE WEAKER SIDE. SOUTHERNMOST
COUNTIES HAVE THE HIGHEST RISK OF MISSING OUT ON RAIN.
THE REMAINDER OF THE 7-DAY FORECAST LEAVES NO OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN.
THE DEPARTING LOW SHOULD LEAVE US AT LEAST 1 DAY OF SEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES, BUT HOT TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S TO NEAR 90 ARE
SUGGESTED TO RETURN BY NEXT SATURDAY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 530 AM CDT SUN MAR 8 2026
MVFR FLYING CONDITIONS PREVAIL TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH
BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SHRA/TSRA. CIGS LOWER
TO IFR/LIFR WITH REDUCTIONS IN VSBYS TONIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES
BACK TO THE NORTH. NORTHERLY WINDS GRADUALLY SHIFT TO SOUTHERLY
OUT WEST LATER TODAY AND THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 70 63 83 69 / 30 20 30 20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 69 60 83 67 / 30 20 30 10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 67 60 82 66 / 40 20 40 10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 69 60 80 66 / 20 20 20 10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 69 61 81 66 / 50 20 10 30
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 70 59 82 67 / 20 20 20 10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 69 59 81 64 / 50 20 30 30
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 68 60 83 67 / 40 20 30 10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 70 63 84 69 / 40 10 30 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 68 62 82 68 / 50 20 40 30
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 69 63 83 69 / 50 20 40 20
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...18
LONG TERM....18
AVIATION...04
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