284
FXUS64 KEWX 081821
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
121 PM CDT SUN MAR 8 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS
THROUGH THIS EVENING
- ADDITIONAL RAIN/STORM CHANCES DURING MIDWEEK WITH POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
- SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NEXT WEEK AND ESPECIALLY
NEXT WEEKEND
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1202 PM CDT SUN MAR 8 2026
WE CONTINUE TO SEE PULSATING STORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS
OF THE AREA. THIS IS DUE LARGELY IN PART TO ISENTROPIC FORCING.
AS WE HAVE ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND WARM AIR ALOFT AT THE 700MB
LEVEL WITH WINDS FLOWING SOUTHERLY. WHILE AT THE SURFACE WINDS
REMAIN NORTHERLY. SO WHAT WE HAVE IS WARM MOIST FLOW OVERRIDING
COOL NORTHERLY FLOW HELPING TO FEED THESE STORMS THAT WE HAVE BEEN
SEEING PULSE REPEATEDLY THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. AS
SUCH, SOME SHORT TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT WE COULD SEE THIS
MOISTURE BOUNDARY SHIFT NORTHWARD WITH TIME THUS ALSO SHIFTING THE
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL NORTHWARD. SO FAR, MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY
HAS REMAINED BELOW SEVERE LIMITS AS THESE STORMS REMAIN ELEVATED
IN CONVECTION WITH THE COLD FRONT WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA. THE MAIN
CONCERNS WITH THE REMAINING STORMS THAT FORM CLOSER TO THIS
FRONTAL AXIS IS MAINLY LARGE HAIL. AS SUCH, SPC HAS PUT EXTREME
SOUTHERN COUNTIES (FRIO, ATASCOSA, WILSON, KARNES, AND DEWITT)
INTO A LEVEL 1 OF 5 RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER WITH THE ONLY THREAT
BEING LARGE HAIL. ADDITIONALLY, ANY OF THESE STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF HEAVY RAINFALL WITH WPC HIGHLIGHTING AREAS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF A UVALDE TO NEW BRAUNFELS TO HALLETTSVILLE LINE IN A
LEVEL 1 OF 4 RISK. STORMS SHOULD SETTLE DOWN AND DISSIPATE AS WE
GET CLOSER TO THIS EVENING.
FOR TONIGHT EXPECT SOME AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING AS THE STORMS
DISSIPATE WITH PERHAPS SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE AS WELL AS MOISTURE
REMAINS TRAPPED ACROSS THE AREA. LOWS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE UPPER
50S NORTH TO LOW 60S SOUTH UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. FOR MONDAY
EXPECT CLOUDS TO BREAK UP SLIGHTLY WITH MAYBE SOME PEAKS OF SUN
BEFORE OUR NEXT DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. HIGHS
MONDAY WILL BE VERY DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER WITH THOSE SEEING
CLOUDS BREAK UP SURGE INTO THE LOW 80S WHILE THOSE STUCK UNDER THE
CLOUD DECK MAY ONLY REACH THE MID TO UPPER 70S. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT
WILL BE QUITE WARM WITH EVERYONE REMAINING IN THE 60S AND PERHAPS
CLOSER TO 70 DEGREES.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1202 PM CDT SUN MAR 8 2026
AS BRIEFLY MENTIONED IN THE SHORT TERM OUR NEXT DISTURBANCE IS A
CUTOFF LOW THAT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA.
THIS LOW BEGINS TO TRAVERSE ITS WAY EASTWARD AND REJOINS THE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW AND EVENTUALLY MOVES OVER OUR AREA BY TUESDAY. MODELS
ARE STILL HAVING DIFFICULTY IN RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY BUT THE
GENERAL CONSENSUS IS THAT WE SHOULD SEE ENOUGH FORCING AND
INSTABILITY TO SEE STORMS FIRE ACROSS THE REGION. HOW MUCH
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY THERE IS REMAINS TO BE A BIG QUESTION
MARK. PWATS CONTINUE TO BE ADVERTISED WELL ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY FOR
EARLY MARCH WHICH MAINTAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. FOR NOW HAVE STUCK WITH BLENDED
GUIDANCE WHICH SHOWS HIGH STORM CHANCES 60 TO 90 PERCENT FOR MOST
OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN/STORM CHANCES
GREATLY DIMINISHING BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY AS THE TRAILING COLD FRONT
QUICKLY MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.
ONCE THIS LOW DEPARTS SO DOES OUR CHANCES FOR RAIN AS THE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW MOVES WELL NORTH OF OUR AREA AND BECOMES MUCH MORE
ZONAL AS COMPARED TO THE WAVY PATTERN WE HAVE HAD THE PAST WEEK.
TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THURSDAY(
CAA BEHIND THE FRONT) SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S AND LOWS IN THE 50S AND
60S. AS WE APPROACH NEXT WEEKEND WE COULD BE LOOKING AT HIGHS
APPROACHING 90. CONTINUE TO CHECK BACK TO THE FORECAST AS WE GET
CLOSER AND THINGS CONTINUE TO COME INTO BETTER FOCUS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1202 PM CDT SUN MAR 8 2026
WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON WITH A REGION OF
RAIN WITH FEW TO SCATTERED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH AT LEAST
MID-AFTERNOON FOR LOCATIONS PRIMARILY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-10/US
HWY 90 CORRIDOR. OF THE 4 TAF SITES, KSAT AND KSSF CONTINUE TO BE
THE TERMINALS THAT WILL BE MOST LIKELY IMPACTED, BUT LIGHTNING
ACTIVITY HAS BEGUN TO DECREASE TO THEIR WEST. KAUS HAS A LOW CHANCE
FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN TO CLIP THE SITE. KDRT MAY ALSO SEE SOME
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS DEVELOP LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING BUT
WITH LITTLE IMPACT EXPECTED. CLOUDS LOWER ACROSS THE SITES OVERNIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH IFR TO EVEN LIFR CEILINGS ESTABLISHING.
REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL, ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE SAN ANTONIO TERMINALS (KSAT AND KSSF). CONDITIONS GRADUALLY
IMPROVE LATE MONDAY MORNING INTO AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS REMAIN 10 KT
OR LESS OUTSIDE FROM ANY SHOWER OR STORM INFLUENCES BUT DIRECTIONS
SHIFT SOUTHERLY BY OR DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 63 83 68 83 / 30 20 10 40
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 60 83 67 83 / 30 20 10 40
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 60 82 67 84 / 20 20 10 30
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 60 80 66 79 / 20 10 10 50
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 61 81 67 85 / 20 10 30 60
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 59 82 67 81 / 20 10 10 40
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 59 81 64 84 / 30 10 20 40
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 60 83 67 83 / 20 20 10 30
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 63 84 69 84 / 10 20 0 10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 62 82 68 83 / 30 20 20 40
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 63 83 69 85 / 20 20 10 30
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...CJM
LONG TERM....CJM
AVIATION...62
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