092
FXUS64 KEWX 090001
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
701 PM CDT SUN MAR 8 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS
THROUGH THIS EVENING
- ADDITIONAL RAIN/STORM CHANCES DURING MIDWEEK WITH POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
- SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NEXT WEEK AND ESPECIALLY
NEXT WEEKEND
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1202 PM CDT SUN MAR 8 2026
WE CONTINUE TO SEE PULSATING STORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS
OF THE AREA. THIS IS DUE LARGELY IN PART TO ISENTROPIC FORCING.
AS WE HAVE ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND WARM AIR ALOFT AT THE 700MB
LEVEL WITH WINDS FLOWING SOUTHERLY. WHILE AT THE SURFACE WINDS
REMAIN NORTHERLY. SO WHAT WE HAVE IS WARM MOIST FLOW OVERRIDING
COOL NORTHERLY FLOW HELPING TO FEED THESE STORMS THAT WE HAVE BEEN
SEEING PULSE REPEATEDLY THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. AS
SUCH, SOME SHORT TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT WE COULD SEE THIS
MOISTURE BOUNDARY SHIFT NORTHWARD WITH TIME THUS ALSO SHIFTING THE
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL NORTHWARD. SO FAR, MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY
HAS REMAINED BELOW SEVERE LIMITS AS THESE STORMS REMAIN ELEVATED
IN CONVECTION WITH THE COLD FRONT WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA. THE MAIN
CONCERNS WITH THE REMAINING STORMS THAT FORM CLOSER TO THIS
FRONTAL AXIS IS MAINLY LARGE HAIL. AS SUCH, SPC HAS PUT EXTREME
SOUTHERN COUNTIES (FRIO, ATASCOSA, WILSON, KARNES, AND DEWITT)
INTO A LEVEL 1 OF 5 RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER WITH THE ONLY THREAT
BEING LARGE HAIL. ADDITIONALLY, ANY OF THESE STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF HEAVY RAINFALL WITH WPC HIGHLIGHTING AREAS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF A UVALDE TO NEW BRAUNFELS TO HALLETTSVILLE LINE IN A
LEVEL 1 OF 4 RISK. STORMS SHOULD SETTLE DOWN AND DISSIPATE AS WE
GET CLOSER TO THIS EVENING.
FOR TONIGHT EXPECT SOME AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING AS THE STORMS
DISSIPATE WITH PERHAPS SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE AS WELL AS MOISTURE
REMAINS TRAPPED ACROSS THE AREA. LOWS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE UPPER
50S NORTH TO LOW 60S SOUTH UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. FOR MONDAY
EXPECT CLOUDS TO BREAK UP SLIGHTLY WITH MAYBE SOME PEAKS OF SUN
BEFORE OUR NEXT DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. HIGHS
MONDAY WILL BE VERY DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER WITH THOSE SEEING
CLOUDS BREAK UP SURGE INTO THE LOW 80S WHILE THOSE STUCK UNDER THE
CLOUD DECK MAY ONLY REACH THE MID TO UPPER 70S. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT
WILL BE QUITE WARM WITH EVERYONE REMAINING IN THE 60S AND PERHAPS
CLOSER TO 70 DEGREES.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1202 PM CDT SUN MAR 8 2026
AS BRIEFLY MENTIONED IN THE SHORT TERM OUR NEXT DISTURBANCE IS A
CUTOFF LOW THAT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA.
THIS LOW BEGINS TO TRAVERSE ITS WAY EASTWARD AND REJOINS THE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW AND EVENTUALLY MOVES OVER OUR AREA BY TUESDAY. MODELS
ARE STILL HAVING DIFFICULTY IN RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY BUT THE
GENERAL CONSENSUS IS THAT WE SHOULD SEE ENOUGH FORCING AND
INSTABILITY TO SEE STORMS FIRE ACROSS THE REGION. HOW MUCH
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY THERE IS REMAINS TO BE A BIG QUESTION
MARK. PWATS CONTINUE TO BE ADVERTISED WELL ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY FOR
EARLY MARCH WHICH MAINTAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. FOR NOW HAVE STUCK WITH BLENDED
GUIDANCE WHICH SHOWS HIGH STORM CHANCES 60 TO 90 PERCENT FOR MOST
OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN/STORM CHANCES
GREATLY DIMINISHING BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY AS THE TRAILING COLD FRONT
QUICKLY MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.
ONCE THIS LOW DEPARTS SO DOES OUR CHANCES FOR RAIN AS THE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW MOVES WELL NORTH OF OUR AREA AND BECOMES MUCH MORE
ZONAL AS COMPARED TO THE WAVY PATTERN WE HAVE HAD THE PAST WEEK.
TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THURSDAY(
CAA BEHIND THE FRONT) SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S AND LOWS IN THE 50S AND
60S. AS WE APPROACH NEXT WEEKEND WE COULD BE LOOKING AT HIGHS
APPROACHING 90. CONTINUE TO CHECK BACK TO THE FORECAST AS WE GET
CLOSER AND THINGS CONTINUE TO COME INTO BETTER FOCUS.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 643 PM CDT SUN MAR 8 2026
FLIGHT WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO LOWER CATEGORIES FROM
MVFR TO IFR LATE THIS EVENING TO LIFR OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING. PATCHY FOG DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
ACROSS MOST OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. CAN'T RULE OUT ISOLATED
POCKETS OF DENSE FOG ALONG I-35 CORRIDOR INCLUDING THE AUSTIN AND
SAN ANTONIO AIRPORTS. MVFR CONDITIONS RETURN LATE MONDAY MORNING
OR CLOSER TO 18Z TIME FRAME. VFR CONDITIONS COME BACK MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS ACROSS THE AREA AIRPORTS, HOWEVER, A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW IS
LIKELY TO PREVAIL THIS EVENING INTO MONDAY MORNING BEFORE WIND SPEEDS
COME UP TO THE 10 TO 12 KNOTS RANGE. BY THE WAY, THE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ACROSS KSAT IS ABOUT TO COME TO AN END WITHIN THE NEXT
HOUR AS STORMS MOVE AWAY FROM THE AIRPORT AND ANY NEW DEVELOPMENT
SHOULD BE SHOWERS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 63 84 68 83 / 30 20 10 40
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 60 83 67 83 / 30 20 10 40
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 60 83 67 84 / 20 20 10 30
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 60 81 66 79 / 20 10 10 50
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 61 82 67 85 / 20 10 30 60
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 59 83 67 81 / 20 10 10 40
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 59 81 64 84 / 30 10 20 40
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 60 83 67 83 / 20 20 10 30
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 63 84 69 84 / 10 20 0 10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 62 82 68 83 / 30 20 20 40
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 63 84 69 85 / 20 20 10 30
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...CJM
LONG TERM....CJM
AVIATION...17
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