463
FXUS64 KEWX 092347
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
647 PM CDT MON MAR 9 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER INCREASED TO A LEVEL 3 OF 5 RISK
OVER THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT; ALL SEVERE HAZARDS POSSIBLE
- SEVERE WEATHER RISK DECREASES TO LEVEL 1 TO 2 FARTHER EAST
INTO AND TOWARDS THE I-35 CORRIDOR TUESDAY NIGHT; MAIN SEVERE
HAZARDS WOULD BE LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS
- LEVEL 1 TO 2 RISK FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND ISOLATED
FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU AND WESTERN
HILL COUNTRY TUESDAY NIGHT
- DRIER WEATHER PATTERN BEYOND WEDNESDAY MORNING; SLIGHTLY COOLER
MIDWEEK BEHIND PACIFIC FRONT THEN WARMER INTO AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 127 PM CDT MON MAR 9 2026
A SLOW IMPROVEMENT OF THE FOG, PATCHY DRIZZLE, AND LOW CLOUD
CEILINGS ENTERING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON
SHOULD REMAIN PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH MORE CLOUD BREAKS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE HILL COUNTRY TO THE COASTAL PLAINS. SPEAKING OF THE
COASTAL PLAINS, WITH THE CLOUD BREAKS, THERE COULD BE THE
OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME ISOLATED STREAMER SHOWERS, OR EVEN A STRAY
THUNDERSTORM, ACROSS OUR EASTERN MOST COASTAL PLAIN COUNTIES THIS
AFTERNOON WHERE SLIGHTLY BETTER DAYTIME HEATING WILL LIKELY OCCUR.
RAIN IS NOT EXPECTED ELSEWHERE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH SLIGHTLY
LOWER TEMPERATURES GIVEN THICKER CLOUD COVER. A SOUTHERLY SURFACE
WIND HAS RETURNED AND WILL SLIGHTLY INCREASE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE REGION. WEAK UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WITH SMALL RIPPLES WITHIN
THE FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THE PARENT UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS NORTHERN
MEXICO TO THE WEST, ARRIVES INTO TONIGHT AND COULD ALLOW FOR SOME
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW ELEVATED STORMS TO ADVANCE
INTO THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AND OUR WESTERN AREAS TONIGHT. ACTIVITY MAY
PERSIST INTO AND THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING AND MAY ADVANCE A LITTLE
MORE EAST WITH TIME; HOWEVER ACTIVITY COULD STRUGGLE GETTING PAST
THE US HIGHWAY 281 CORRIDOR. OTHERWISE, ANTICIPATE A WARM AND HUMID
NIGHT WITH RETURNING LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG. MOST OF TUESDAY WILL
OTHERWISE REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS PEAKING IN THE
70S AND 80S.
NOW ON TO THE MOST IMPACTFUL WEATHER IN THE FORECAST. THE PARENT
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE WEST INTO TUESDAY
EVENING. REGARDLESS IF IT OPENS UP INTO A TROUGH OR REMAINS AS AN
UPPER LOW, THE OVERALL DYNAMICS FOR THE SYSTEM WILL BE QUITE POTENT
AS IT ENTERS INTO OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
EDWARDS PLATEAU. THESE DYNAMICS PROVIDES STRONGER WIND SHEAR, BOTH
ACROSS THE 0-6 KM LAYER BUT ALSO WITHIN THE LOW-LEVELS AS WELL. THE
SHEAR COUPLED WITH AT LEAST MODERATE INSTABILITY (MLCAPE OF 1500+
J/KG) FROM THE LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING WILL SUPPORT
SEVERE WEATHER. THE DEVELOPMENT OF CELLS INITIALLY OCCUR AROUND OR
SOON AFTER 21/22Z ACROSS THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU AND PERHAPS
WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE IN MEXICO. THE STORM MODE INITIALLY AT LEAST
WOULD ALSO LEAN ON POSSIBLE DISCRETE SUPERCELLS WITH ALL MODES OF
SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE. EXPECT THE GREATEST THREAT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER WITHIN THE REGION TO CONCENTRATE ACROSS THIS REGION. A FEW
OF THESE STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A STRONG TORNADO (UP TO
EF2 STRENGTH), 2+ INCH DIAMETER HAIL, AND DAMAGING WINDS UP TO 75
MPH. AS THESE STORMS ADVANCE FARTHER EASTWARD BEYOND DARK, EXPECT
FOR THE STORMS TO CONGEAL AND TREND EVOLVE TOWARDS MORE OF A LINEAR
MODE ALIGNING ALONG THE PACIFIC FRONT. THE STORM INTENSITIES ARE
QUITE LIKELY TO WANE ON THE APPROACH TO AND ACROSS THE I-35 CORRIDOR
AND FOR POINTS EAST. THIS IS DUE TO THE DECREASING INSTABILITY OVER
THE REGION WITH THE EXPECTATION FOR STORMS ARRIVING LATE OVERNIGHT
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF WEDNESDAY. ADDITIONALLY, THE PACIFIC
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM COULD UNDERCUT THE
ONGOING STORMS AND ADVANCES OUT AHEAD. A LARGE SWATH OF HEAVY
RAINFALL IS NOT ANTICIPATED WITH THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE UPPER
LOW AND IT'S PACIFIC FRONT, BUT STRONG TO SEVERE CELLS COULD PRODUCE
A QUICK 1 TO 3 INCHES IN A SHORT TIME, RESULTING IN ISOLATED FLASH
FLOODING POTENTIAL. THIS POTENTIAL IS HIGHEST IN THE SOUTHERN
EDWARDS PLATEAU AND WESTERN HILL COUNTRY AS WELL.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 127 PM CDT MON MAR 9 2026
SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD LINGER INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION
DURING WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE RAIN ENDS AS DRIER AIR FUNNELS IN
BEHIND THE PACIFIC FRONT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. MODEST COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE POST-
FRONTAL NORTHERLY FLOW AND RESULTS IN SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES
FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AFTERNOONS ACROSS OUR WESTERN AREAS COULD BE DRY ENOUGH TO CONTEND
WITH POSSIBLE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS, BUT THIS HINGES ON HOW MUCH
WETTING RAIN OCCURS WITH OUR APPROACHING SYSTEM.
THE REST OF THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL REMAIN RAIN FREE
WITH A DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IN WAKE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM. FRIDAY THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY WILL SEE LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS AS WELL. TEMPERATURES WARM DURING EACH
SUBSEQUENT DAY WITH SUNDAY SEEING THE HIGHEST DAYTIME HIGHS. WE'LL
MONITOR THE NEXT FRONT, WHICH THEN COULD ARRIVE AS SOON AS SUNDAY
NIGHT. HOWEVER, THIS FRONT LOOKS TO REMAIN MOSTLY A DRY FRONTAL
PASSAGE.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 633 PM CDT MON MAR 9 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE LOCAL AREA TERMINALS THROUGH
AT LEAST 04Z TUESDAY. AFTERWARD, MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. FOR THE SAN ANTONIO
TERMINALS, LIFR ARE FORECAST FROM AROUND 10Z TO 14Z TUESDAY DUE TO
PATCHY DENSE FOG. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO SLOWLY IMPROVE
INTO VFR BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW DOMINATES THE
LOCAL AREA AIRPORTS THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THE WIND
PICKS UP FROM THE SOUTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO
26 KNOTS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT IS ANTICIPATED PUSH ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS ON TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LIKELY ADDED TO THE KDRT TAFS DURING THE
NEXT CYCLE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 69 83 65 80 / 10 20 80 60
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 69 84 64 80 / 10 20 80 60
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 69 84 64 81 / 10 10 80 50
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 68 80 61 76 / 10 30 90 40
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 68 84 59 86 / 20 30 90 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 69 82 62 78 / 10 30 90 60
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 67 83 60 84 / 20 20 80 20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 69 84 64 81 / 10 10 70 60
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 71 85 68 80 / 10 10 70 80
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 68 84 64 82 / 20 10 80 40
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 69 85 65 84 / 20 10 80 40
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...62
LONG TERM....62
AVIATION...17
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